Source: Wall Street See
Authors: Fang Jiayao, Du Yu, Li Xiaoyin, Long Yue
In July, US CPI inflation met expectations, leading to a significant reduction in bets for a rate cut in September. The US dollar and short-term bond yields rose, causing gold to fall by up to 1%. Nasdaq closed slightly higher, and the chip index fell by up to 1.8% after opening higher. The Chinese concept stock index fell by more than 2%. Nvidia fell 1.8% before closing up 1.7%, and Tencent ADR fell almost 6% before closing down more than 3%. The unexpected increase of EIA oil storage caused US oil price to fall below USD 77, and Brent oil fell below USD 80. The euro hit a new high for the year, and offshore RMB rose for two consecutive days.
S&P 500 rose by about 0.4%, and Dow Jones regained the 0.04 million point mark. Small-cap stock indices fell by over 0.5%, and the chip sector fell by about 0.2%. The Chinese concept stock index closed down more than 1.6%.
In the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, the financial sector rose by 1.29%, the energy sector rose by 0.66%, the information technology/technology sector rose by 0.61%, the consumer discretionary sector fell by 0.41%, and the telecommunications sector fell by 0.91%. The "Seven Sisters of Tech" generally fell but also rose. Nvidia rose 1.67%, Apple rose 0.2%, Microsoft rose 0.69%, while Tesla fell 3.1%, "metaverse" Meta fell 0.34%, Google A fell 2.31%, and Amazon fell 0.08%.
US stocks closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 index rose 0.38% to 5455.21, the Dow Jones rose 0.61% or 242.75 points to 40008.39, and the Nasdaq rose 0.03% to 17192.60. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.09%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 tech components, rose 0.11%. The Russell 2000 index fell 0.52%. The panic index VIX fell 10.65% to 16.19.
US stock industry ETFs closed mixed. The financial industry ETF rose by more than 1%. The energy industry ETF, technology industry ETF, daily consumer goods ETF, global technology stock ETF and medical industry ETF rose by around 0.5%. While the global aviation industry ETF, consumer discretionary ETF and biotech index ETF fell more than 0.5%.
In the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, the financial sector rose by 1.29%, the energy sector rose by 0.66%, the information technology/technology sector rose by 0.61%, the consumer discretionary sector fell by 0.41%, and the telecommunications sector fell by 0.91%.
"Seven Sisters of Tech" generally fell but also rose. Nvidia rose 1.67%, Apple rose 0.2%, Microsoft rose 0.69%, while Tesla fell 3.1%, "metaverse" Meta fell 0.34%, Google A fell 2.31%, and Amazon fell 0.08%.
It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs distributed a "sedative pill" stating that there is no problem with Nvidia, and the shipment schedule of Blackwell chips in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. Pressured by regulatory pressure, Apple announced on Wednesday that it will start allowing third parties to use iPhone payment chips to process transactions, allowing banks and other service providers to compete with the Apple Pay platform. Apple is seeking new sources of revenue growth and continuing to develop desktop robotic devices, led by the former head of its automotive business.
Chip stocks rose and fell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.18%; the SOXX industry ETF fell 0.25%; the Nvidia twice leveraged ETF rose 3.11%. On Semiconductor fell 2.51%, TSMC ADR fell 1.38%, Intel fell 2.69%, AMD fell 0.27%, Qualcomm fell 1.37%, while ASML ADR rose 1.16%, KLA Corp rose 0.01%, Arm Holdings rose 1.72%, Broadcom rose 0.98%, and Applied Materials rose 0.41%. Micron Technology rose 3.05%.
Most of the AI concept stocks rose. Super Micro Computer, the "AI demon stock" rose 1.7%, Dell Technologies rose 3.01%, Oracle rose 1%, Snowflake rose 0.19%, CrowdStrike rose 3.27%, C3.ai rose 0.48%, Palantir rose 2.01%, while BigBear.ai fell 5.47%, SoundHound AI, a voice AI company held by Nvidia, fell 0.2%, Serve Robotics, an AI robot distribution company held by Nvidia, rose 9.64%, and BullFrog AI rose 2.39%.
In news, Form 13F showed that Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway cleared its Snowflake stocks, reduced its Apple holdings by 0.389 billion shares, and increased its stake in Ulta Beauty, a cosmetics company.
China concept stocks generally fell. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.63%, closing at 5,505.96. Among the ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell 2.33%, and the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell 2.29%.
Among the popular China Concept Stocks, Huya fell 6.48%, Bilibili fell 6.29%, Gaotu, Dingdong Maicai, 21vianet, iQiyi fell at least 5.15%, VIPshop, NIO, Boss Zhipin, Miniso, XPeng fell at least 4.1%, Daqo New Energy, EHang, Li Auto fell at least 3%, Canadian Solar, Tal Education, Baidu, Atours, Weibo, ZTO Express, JinkoSolar, Alibaba fell at least 2%, Netease, Ctrip, New Oriental fell at least 1.3%, H World Group, Autohome, JD.com, GDS Holdings, Yum China, Douyu fell less than 0.9%, Zai Lab remained unchanged, Tencent Music rose less than 0.1%, Ke Holdings rose about 1.3%, Qifu Technology rose 12.27%. In addition, Tencent Holdings ADR fell 3.35%.
In terms of individual stocks with large fluctuations, (1) Cisco's Q2 report was overall positive, announcing further layoffs, and the stock price rose more than 5% after-hours trading. (2) UBS rose 5.61%, with Q2 profit of $1.14 billion, doubling expectations, with progress in cost reduction and integration work. (3) Victoria's Secret rose 16.41%, with the company's Q2 adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, and the appointment of a new CEO. (4) Kellanova, maker of food company Kellogg, rose 7.76% as Mars will acquire the company for $83.50 per share in cash. (5) Tencent fell 3.35%, with Q2 revenue up 8% YoY, Non-IFRS operating profit up 27% YoY, and domestic games returning to growth, and currently in talks with Apple over IOS gaming revenue. (6) The retail industry is currently undergoing a super merger, as candy giant Mars is close to acquiring the top ranked canned potato chip maker Kellanova for $30 billion in cash ($83.50 per share), while other companies' stock prices fell.
In terms of news, on Monday, the world's largest sovereign fund, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund (NBIM), released its latest holdings data: it reduced holdings of Novo Nordisk, META and ASML in the first half of this year, and increased holdings of energy stocks.
UK CPI growth was lower than expected, with traders increasing bets on a rate cut in the UK, and cautious optimism spreading, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index rising to a more than one-week high:
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.49%, with most sectors rising, and travel and leisure stocks rising 2.89%, while mining stocks fell 0.97%. Among the companies that disclosed their financial reports, UBS' Q2 net profit doubled expectations, and its share price surged by 5.29%. Stock indices in several European countries rose: the UK stock index rose 0.56%, the Spanish stock index rose 0.27%, the Italian stock index rose 1%, the German stock index rose 0.41%, and the French stock index rose 0.79%.
"The Fed's rate cut premium" subsided, with the two-year US bond yield approaching 4% intraday. UK CPI boosted expectations of a rate cut, with medium- and long-term UK bond yields falling more than 6 basis points:
US bonds: At the end of the day, the two-year US bond yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose 2.43 basis points to 3.9537%, and the US CPI data pushed it to a new low of 3.8685% during the day. It quickly rebounded, and quickly hit a new high of 3.9912%. The yield on 10-year benchmark treasuries fell 1.32 basis points to 3.8295%. When the US CPI data was released at 20:30 Beijing time, it hit a new low of 3.8031%, rebounded sharply, and then hit a new high of 3.8674%.
Eurozone benchmark 10-year German bond yield fell 0.6 basis points, 2-year German bond yield rose 1.4 basis points, France 10-year treasury notes yield fell 0.5 basis points, Italy 10-year treasury notes yield fell 1.2 basis points, Spain 10-year treasury notes yield fell 1.1 basis points, Greece 10-year treasury notes yield fell 1.1 basis points. British bonds remained downward throughout the day, with 2-year British bond yields down 4.0 basis points and UK 10-year treasury notes yield down 6.3 basis points.
The US dollar index saw a V-shaped reversal on the US CPI release day, which drove Asian currencies up and the yen's intraday increase approached 146:
USD: The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.03% to 102.593 points, refreshing its daily high to 102.720 points at 14:00 Beijing time, and then oscillated downwards. After the release of US CPI data at 20:30, it rebounded from below 102.4 points to near 102.6 points, and refreshed its daily low at 22:40 at 102.270 points, showing a V-shaped reversal throughout the day. Bloomberg's US dollar index fell 0.06%, to 1241.61 points, with a daily trading range of 1243.09-1238.70 points.
Non-US currencies were mixed. The euro rose 0.18% against the US dollar, the pound fell 0.23% against the US dollar, and the US dollar rose 0.06% against the Swiss franc.
News-wise, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut in four years; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chairman said it considered cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, and the intraday decline of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar expanded to 1%. It is expected that the Singapore Monetary Authority will not ease policy until next year, and the market's bet on the earliest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased. The Singapore dollar touched a new high for 2024 intraday.
The yen fell 0.32% against the US dollar, trading at 147.25 yen. At 10:36 Beijing time, it refreshed its daily high to 146.08 yen. Earlier reports said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida gave up running for the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party, possibly due to low support. After the release of US CPI data, the euro rose 0.48% against the yen, trading at 162.19 yen; the pound against the yen remained roughly flat, trading at 188.914 yen.
Offshore Renminbi: Offshore Renminbi (CNH) rose 8 points against the US dollar, trading at 7.1471 yuan, with overall trading ranging from 7.1536-7.1309 yuan during the day.
Most cryptocurrencies fell. The largest market-cap leader, Bitcoin, fell 3.10% to $59,365.00 at the end of the day and fell back after the release of the US CPI data. The second largest, Ethereum, fell 1.18% at the end of the day, trading at $2,684.50.
US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, coupled with yesterday's IEA monthly report showing a slowdown in oil demand, double blows caused US oil to fall nearly 1.75% for the second consecutive day, and Brent crude oil fell more than 1.15%:
US oil: WTI September crude oil futures fell from $78.35/barrel yesterday to $76.98/barrel, a drop of nearly 1.75% or $1.37 during the day. During European trading, US oil continued its earlier gains, hitting a daily high of almost 1% above $79, and then fell steadily. After the US stock market broke through the integer mark of 77, it fell nearly 2%.
Brent: Brent October crude oil futures fell from $80.69/barrel yesterday to $79.76/barrel, a drop of more than 1.15% or $0.93 during the day. Brent oil followed a similar trend to US oil, rising over 0.9% to above $81 at most before falling by nearly 1.4% to below $79.50 at the lowest.
News-wise, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.36 million barrels last week. Bloomberg users' expectation was a decrease of 1.8 million barrels, and analysts expected a decrease of 0.85667 million barrels. Last time it decreased by 3.728 million barrels. According to Xinhua News Agency, a new round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza will be held in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on the 15th. An Iranian official said that whether to retaliate against Israel depends on the progress of the ceasefire talks in Gaza.
Natural gas: The September natural gas futures in the United States rose more than 3.30% to $2.2190/million British thermal units. Investors weighed healthy inventories against supply concerns, while the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell 1.02%, trading at 38.965 euros/megawatt-hour. ICE UK natural gas futures fell 0.99%, trading at 94.380 pence/therm.
As the market shifted from over-predicting a 50 basis point rate cut to only a 25 basis point rate cut, the upward momentum of gold was weakened, and the gold price fell by nearly 1%.
Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell 0.94% at the end of the session, closing at $2484.2 per ounce. At 20:30 Beijing time, when the US CPI data was released, spot gold hit a day high, rising nearly 0.6% to approach $2480, less than $4 away from the record high set last month. It then gave up its gains and fell back, with US stocks hitting a day low in mid-session, down nearly 1.1% to below $2430.
Silver: COMEX September silver futures fell 0.78% at the end of the session, closing at $27.570. After the release of CPI data, spot silver hit a day high, rising nearly 0.7% to break through $28, but then fell back continuously. At mid-session, US stocks hit a day low, down more than 2.4% to below $27.
Most of London's industrial base metals rose, with gains of less than 1%. Dr. Copper, the economic indicator, rose $10 to $8968 per ton. Zinc in London rose $26, tin rose $231, aluminum rose $4, and lead rose $18, while nickel fell $45.
Editor/Jeffy