US stock market early trading | The market is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the three major indexes are mixed; kellanova rose more than 7%, the company was acquired by Mars at a premium.

北京时间14日晚，美股周三小幅高开。美国7月CPI基本符合预期，显示通胀降温，使市场相信美联储将能很快降息，但降息幅度不会太大。

截至发稿，三大指涨跌不一，道指涨0.16%；纳指跌0.3%；标普500指数跌0.04%。　　

美国劳工统计局周三早间报告称，美国7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。此前接受道琼斯调查的经济学家平均预期该指数环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨3%。

扣除食品和能源成本不计，美国7月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%。同比涨幅为3.2%。

根据美国劳工统计局的报告，7月CPI的同比涨幅创2021年3月以来最低，而核心CPI的同比涨幅为2021年4月以来的最低水平。6月份的CPI同比涨幅为3%。

核心CPI年率录得3.2%，仍然是自2021年初以来的最低增速。经济学家认为，核心指标比整体CPI更能反映潜在通胀。随着经济缓慢转入减速档，通胀总体上仍呈下降趋势。再加上就业市场走软，市场普遍预计美联储将于下月开始降息，而降息幅度可能取决于更多即将公布的数据。

今日公布的这份数据显示，美国基础通胀7月录得连续第四个月同比下降，使市场相信美联储不会偏离在9月份降息的路径。2年期美债收益率逼近4%，通胀数据支持9月降息25基点

Orion首席投资官Rusty Vanneman表示，考虑到本周的通胀数据（包括周二的PPI数据），以及基于市场和调查的短期通胀预期均降至多年低点，美联储9月份降息的可能性仍然很大。

美国7月CPI指数增幅连续第四个月下行，使投资者认为美联储在9月份必然会降息，问题在于降息50个基点还是25个基点。

实际上，期货交易显示，目前交易员认为美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点的概率为56.5%，降息50个基点的概率为43.5%。不过，经济学家认为，劳动力市场必须大幅恶化，美联储才能降息50个基点。

在本月早些时候公布的7月份就业报告出人意料地疲弱后，许多投资者和经济学家对最近的经济衰退风险变得更加担忧。

分析师Chris Anstey表示，值得注意的是，美国7月CPI通胀年率目前已降至3%以下，这是自2021年春季通胀首次点燃以来的最低水平。市场的初始波动并不大。美国2年期国债收益率目前上涨逾4个基点，显示出一些人对通胀数据并未变得更加沉寂感到失望。

在周三的CPI报告发布前，周二美国公布的批发通胀数据（生产者价格指数，PPI）提振了股市。当天道指收高超过400点，涨幅约1%。标普500指数涨1.7%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨2.4%。

目前美股三大平均指数均已回升至8月5日重挫之前的水平。8月5日美国股市遭到抛售，似乎与日元外汇套利交易的平仓和对美国经济衰退的担忧有关。

自8月5日以来美股迅速反弹，其速度让华尔街的一些人感到不安。安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian表示：“我们反弹了，我并不感到惊讶。但是反弹的速度和程度让感到惊讶。”

上周的市场风暴一度引发华尔街恐慌。金融市场迹象显示，经济衰退即将来临的可能性越来越大。

高盛和摩根大通的模型显示，从美国债市信号以及在较小程度上对商业周期起落较敏感的股票表现来看，市场暗示的经济衰退可能性已经大幅上升。

高盛的数据显示，股市和债市目前认为美国经济衰退的可能性为41%，高于4月份的29%。股市最近一次大幅上涨的原因在于，市场押注美联储将采取更激进的降息步伐，而对商业周期起落较敏感的股票表现滞后。

摩根大通的一个类似模型计算出，由于美国国债的大幅重新定价，美国经济衰退的可能性已从3月底的20%跃升至31%。

焦点个股

明星科技股多数上涨，美光科技涨超3%，英伟达涨超1%。

热门中概股涨跌不一，贝壳涨近2%，网易跌超2%。

$维多利亚的秘密 (VSCO.US)$涨超20%，公司第二季度业绩超预期，宣布新任CEO。

$家乐氏 (K.US)$涨超7%，玛氏接近以每股83.5美元的价格收购该公司。

$Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$涨近30%，该公司在Q2营收超市场预期。

$瑞银 (UBS.US)$涨超5%，Q2业绩超预期，财管新流入资金达270亿美元

博彩业巨头 $Flutter Entertainment (FLUT.US)$ 涨近10%，Q2业绩强劲，上调全年指引

$星巴克 (SBUX.US)$盘前跌超2%，昨日传出新任CEO利好大涨超20%。

$台积电 (TSM.US)$ 跌近2%，台积电CoWoS-L封装技术较为复杂，以致仍有些良率挑战，并导致初步产量低于原定计划。

编辑/ping

On the evening of the 14th Beijing time, the US stock market opened slightly higher on Wednesday. The US July CPI was basically in line with expectations, showing a cooling of inflation, which made the market believe that the Fed would be able to cut interest rates soon, but the rate cut would not be too large.

As of press time, the three major indexes had mixed gains and losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.16%; The Nasdaq fell 0.3%; The S&P 500 index fell 0.04%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported early Wednesday that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year in July. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected on average that the index would rise 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year.

Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year in July.

According to the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the year-on-year increase in CPI in July was the lowest since March 2021, while the year-on-year increase in core CPI was the lowest since April 2021. The year-on-year increase in CPI in June was 3%.

The year-on-year increase in core CPI was 3.2%, still the slowest growth rate since early 2021. Economists believe that the core index reflects underlying inflation better than the overall CPI. As the economy slowly shifts into a deceleration phase, inflation is still generally on a downward trend. Combined with a softening job market, the market generally expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates next month, and the size of the rate cut may depend on more data to be released soon.

This data released today shows that core inflation in the US has fallen year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, making the market believe that the Fed will not deviate from the path of interest rate cuts in September. The two-year US Treasury bond yield is approaching 4%, and inflation data supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September.

Rusty Vanneman, Chief Investment Officer at Orion, said that considering this week's inflation data (including the PPI data on Tuesday) and the fact that short-term inflation expectations based on the market and surveys have fallen to multi-year lows, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is still high.

The US CPI index has fallen for the fourth consecutive month, which has made investors believe that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates in September. The question is whether the rate cut will be 50 basis points or 25 basis points.

In fact, futures trading shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting is 56.5%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 43.5%. However, economists believe that the labor market must deteriorate significantly for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

After the unexpectedly weak July employment report released earlier this month, many investors and economists have become more concerned about the risk of an economic recession.

Analyst Chris Anstey noted that it's worth paying attention to the fact that the annualized CPI inflation rate in the US for July has fallen to below 3%, the lowest level since the inflation first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility was not significant. The yield on US 2-year treasury notes is currently up over 4 basis points, indicating that some people feel disappointed that inflation data has not become more muted.

The wholesale inflation data (producer price index, PPI) released by the US on Tuesday boosted the stock market before the CPI report was released on Wednesday. The Dow rose more than 400 points that day, up about 1%. The S&P 500 index rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.4%.

Currently, the three major indices of the US stock market have all returned to the levels before the heavy losses on August 5th. The US stock market suffered a sell-off on August 5th, apparently due to the unwinding of the carry trades involving the Japanese yen and concerns about an economic recession in the US.

Since August 5th, the US stock market has rebounded rapidly, a speed that has made some people on Wall Street uneasy. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, said: "We bounced back, and I'm not surprised. But the speed and degree of the rebound surprised me."

Last week's market storm caused panic on Wall Street. Market signs indicate that the possibility of an economic recession is growing.

Models from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan indicate that the market's implied probability of an economic recession has risen sharply based on US bond market signals and stock performance, which is moderately sensitive to business cycles. Goldman's data shows that the market and bond market now believe there is a 41% probability of a US economic recession, up from 29% in April. The recent sharp rise in the stock market is because the market is betting that the Fed will take a more aggressive approach to cutting interest rates, while stocks that are more sensitive to business cycles are lagging behind.

JPMorgan's similar model calculates that the probability of a US economic recession has jumped from 20% at the end of March to 31% due to a significant repricing of US Treasury bonds.

Most of the Star Tech stocks rose, with Micron Technology up more than 3% and Nvidia up more than 1%. The China concept stocks were mixed, with Ke Holdings up nearly 2% and Netease down more than 2%.

Focus stocks

Hot China concept stocks were mixed, with Ke Holdings up nearly 2% and Netease down more than 2%.

$Victoria's Secret (VSCO.US)$Rising over 20%, the company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations and announced a new CEO.

$Kellanova (K.US)$Increased over 7%, Mars is close to acquiring the company at a price of $83.5 per share.

$Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$Increased nearly 30%, the company's Q2 revenue exceeded market expectations.

$UBS Group (UBS.US)$Rising over 5%, Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with new inflows of $27 billion in funds.

Gambling industry giant $Flutter Entertainment (FLUT.US)$ Rising nearly 10%, Q2 performance is strong, and the full-year guidance has been raised.

$Starbucks (SBUX.US)$Falling over 2% pre-market, the news of the new CEO led to a bullish rise of over 20% yesterday.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Falling nearly 2%, Taiwan Semiconductor's CoWoS-L packaging technology is complex, leading to some yield challenges and lower initial production than originally planned.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

美股早市 | 市场押注美联储9月降息25基点，三大指数涨跌不一；家乐氏涨超7%，公司遭玛氏溢价收购

US stock market early trading | The market is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the three major indexes are mixed; kellanova rose more than 7%, the company was acquired by Mars at a premium.

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