海外订单高增印证景气度，欧洲扩产加速全球化布局2024H1，公司外销收入7.91 亿元，同比+48.53%；6 月底，外销在手订单28.49 亿元，同比+180.16%。公司进一步扩大墨西哥产能，并为美国产能扩产做好准备；在欧洲市场已完成波兰工厂和欧洲销售及售后服务总部的布局，预计2024Q4 准备好波兰产能，为公司进一步拓展海外市场，降低单一市场依赖奠定基础。Incidents:
The company released its 2024 mid-year report. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 2.916 billion yuan, +0.79% year-on-year; realized net profit to mother of 0.222 billion yuan, +16.43% year-on-year. Q2 In a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1.611 billion yuan, +0.94% YoY, +23.50% month-on-month; realized net profit of 0.128 billion yuan to mother, +23.02% YoY and +35.06% month-on-month.
The domestic new energy business dragged down short-term performance. The non-new energy business grew rapidly in 2024H1. The company's domestic sales revenue was 2.11 billion yuan, -10.02% year over year, mainly driven by domestic new energy business revenue represented by silicon production -19.29% year over year. The company's non-new energy business is expected to continue to grow, with 24H1 critical infrastructure sales revenue +104.69% year over year, power generation and power supply sales revenue +67.41% year over year, and new infrastructure sales revenue such as data centers +83.38% year over year, partially compensating for the impact of the decline in the new energy business.
The high increase in overseas orders confirmed the boom. European production expansion accelerated the global layout of 2024H1. The company's export revenue was 0.791 billion yuan, +48.53% year-on-year; at the end of June, active export orders were 2.849 billion yuan, +180.16% over the same period last year. The company has further expanded production capacity in Mexico and is preparing for the expansion of production capacity in the US; it has completed the layout of the Polish factory and European sales and after-sales service headquarters in the European market. It is expected that production capacity in Poland will be ready in 2024Q4, laying the foundation for the company to further expand overseas markets and reduce its dependence on the single market.
Continue to increase investment in R&D and promote the launch of new products
2024H1, the company successfully developed a dry-type transformer built into the floating cabin of offshore wind power, and is about to enter the pilot assembly stage; it has developed and mass-produced 110/120kV customized liquid-immersion transformers for different regions overseas; the energy storage series products have achieved revenue of 0.284 billion yuan, and completed the second-generation 35kV 25mW/50MWh high-voltage direct-mounted energy storage system prototype; Digital Factory Solution signed a sales order of 0.476 billion yuan (excluding tax).
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Due to the company's domestic business development falling short of expectations, we expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 7.95/10.426/12.793 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.24%/31.14%/22.71%; net profit to mother is 0.651/0.988/1.38 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.07%/51.70%/39.61%; EPS is 1.43/2.16/3.02 yuan, respectively, and 3-year CAGR 39.82% In view of the rapid growth of the company's overseas orders, profitability is expected to increase; expectations of current overseas policy changes may have been fully responded to by the market, and the company's global layout is expected to reduce its dependence on a single market and give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Changes in overseas policies affect domestic power equipment exports; 2) industry competition intensifies; 3) raw material prices fluctuate greatly; 4) the risk of overseas factory construction.
