ETF Investment Guide

Multiple bullish factors combined! Institutions suggest that gold prices may reach their peak in the fourth quarter.

受昨日美股PPI以及地缘政治因素的影响， $黄金主连(2412) (GCmain.US)$ 今日再度逼近前高。

荷兰国际集团大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey表示，金价将在第四季度达到峰值，因为投资者关注的是美联储的降息举措，而在地缘政治风险的背景下，ETF资金流入和央行的买入将继续为金价提供支撑。

市场预期美联储9月降息

本周美国两份重磅通胀报告中的第一份已于昨日出炉，美国7月PPI全面超预期放缓，同比上涨2.2%，低于预期2.3%和前值2.6%，环比涨幅为0.1%，低于前值和预期的0.2%。

分析师称，PPI数据进一步证明，通胀形势已经逆转，美联储降息预期升温。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为46%，降息50个基点的概率为54%。美联储到11月累计降息50个基点的概率为29.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为51.2%，累计降息100个基点的概率为19.2%。

美国7月CPI将于今晚公布，不过Evercore ISI分析师表示，美联储现在将优先考虑劳动力市场，即将公布的美国消费者价格指数在决策中起到次要作用。该行强调，即使通胀高于预期，美联储可能仍然会专注于防止劳动力市场的恶化。也就是说，9月降息的可能性很高。

Ewa Manthey认为，自去年7月以来，美联储一直将其关键政策利率维持在5.25%至5.5%的目标范围内，这是20多年来的最高水平。经济学家现在预计，9月份美联储将降息50个基点，随后将采取一系列25个基点的降息，这将使联邦基金利率在明年夏天回到3.5%左右。

地缘政治风险持续发酵

中东方面，7月末，哈马斯重要领导人和黎巴嫩真主党二号人物相继身亡，中东局势急速升温。人们愈发担心，伊朗随时可能发动报复性袭击。根据三名伊朗高级官员的最新表态，要想阻止伊朗对以色列采取直接报复行动，只有在本周“有望举行”的会谈中达成加沙停火协议。其中一位伊朗高级安全官员表示，如果加沙谈判失败或伊朗认为以色列正在拖延谈判，伊朗将与真主党等盟友一起发动直接攻击。

俄乌方面，与乌克兰接壤的俄罗斯别尔哥罗德州14日宣布进入紧急状态。据了解，别尔哥罗德州位于近日被乌军大举突袭的俄罗斯库尔斯克州南部，还与乌克兰的苏梅州接壤。红亚鲁加地区则地处别尔哥罗德州、库尔斯克州以及乌克兰的苏梅州交界处。别尔哥罗德州州长格拉德科夫8月12日宣布，由于乌克兰军队的“活动”，该州部分地区将进行人员疏散。

Ewa Manthey对此认为，避险需求将在中短期内继续支撑金价。

6月全球央行黄金净购买量为12吨，购金态势仍在持续

8月12日，据世界黄金协会披露，6月份全球央行黄金的净购买量为12吨，月度总购买量下降至31吨。世界黄金协会表示，尽管与去年同期相比，总购买量和销售量都有所下降，但2024年的央行购金态势仍在持续，新兴市场银行是购金和售金的主力军。

此外，7月份，全球黄金ETF连续第三个月实现净流入。当月全球实物黄金ETF流入37亿美元，为2022年4月份以来最强劲的月度表现，其中西方市场流入量最大。近几个月全球黄金ETF流入的态势使得2024年初至7月底的流出量收窄至30亿美元。得益于基金流入和金价上涨，资产管理总规模(AUM)增长6%，达到2460亿美元。

Ewa Manthey指出，“在当前的经济环境、地缘政治紧张局势以及价格从创纪录高位回落的背景下，我们仍预计央行的需求将保持强劲。”

如何把握黄金价格的上涨机会？

由于黄金ETF交易便利，流动性高，并且交易时段内可随时线上交易，因此投资者可通过投资ETF把握黄金价格上涨的机会。

事实上，今年黄金ETF是今年的投资主线之一。从年初至今涨跌幅来看，截止至美东时间8月13日收盘， $SPDR黄金ETF (GLD.US)$ 、 $黄金信托ETF-iShares (IAU.US)$ 等主流的黄金ETF今年涨幅已超19%，领先于 $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ 13.93%的涨幅。

除了以上提及的ETF，市场上仍有其他黄金ETF可供投资者选择，牛友们可以通过点击市场>ETF>主题ETF>黄金ETF查看~

编辑/Jeffy

Affected by yesterday's US PPI and geopolitical factors, today it once again approached its previous high. $Gold Futures(DEC4) (GCmain.US)$ Netherlands International Group's commodity strategist Ewa Manthey said that gold prices will reach their peak in the fourth quarter, as investors are concerned about the Fed's interest rate cuts, and inflows of ETF funds and central bank purchases will continue to support gold prices.

Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The first of two major US inflation reports this week was released yesterday. US July PPI slowed significantly, rising 2.2% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.3% and the previous 2.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, lower than the previous and expected 0.2%. Analysts said that the PPI data further indicates that inflation has reversed, and the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut is rising. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 46%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 54%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed by November is 29.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 51.2%, with the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut at 19.2%.

Geopolitical risks continue to ferment.

Ewa Manthey believes that since July last year, the Fed has kept its key policy interest rate within the target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, which is the highest level in more than 20 years. Economists now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, followed by a series of 25 basis point cuts, which will bring the federal funds rate back to around 3.5% in the summer of next year.

According to Evercore ISI analysts, the Fed will now prioritize the labor market, with the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index playing a secondary role in the decision-making process. The bank emphasized that even if inflation is higher than expected, the Fed may still focus on preventing the deterioration of the labor market. In other words, the probability of an interest rate cut in September is high.

In addition, global gold ETFs saw net inflows for the third consecutive month in July. There was a net inflow of US$3.7 billion into physical gold ETFs worldwide that month, the strongest monthly performance since April 2022, with Western markets having the largest inflows. The trend of net outflows from gold ETFs in early 2024 has narrowed to US$3 billion. Thanks to fund inflows and rising gold prices, assets under management (AUM) grew by 6% to reach US$246 billion.

According to Ewa Manthey, "Against the current economic environment, geopolitical risks and backdrop of gold's top reversal, we expect central bank demand to remain robust."

Global central bank net gold purchases in June were 12 tons, and the trend of gold purchases is still ongoing.

Gold ETFs have been one of the investment themes this year. As of the US Eastern Time on August 13th, mainstream gold ETFs have risen more than 19% this year, leading the csi commodity equity index, which has risen by 13.93%.

In the fourth quarter, gold prices will reach their peak due to investors' concerns about the Fed's interest rate cuts, and inflows of ETF funds and central bank purchases will continue to support gold prices.

US July CPI will be released tonight, but Evercore ISI analysts said that the Fed will now prioritize the labor market, and the forthcoming US Consumer Price Index will play a secondary role in the decision-making process. The trend of net outflows from gold ETFs in early 2024 has narrowed to US$3 billion. Thanks to fund inflows and rising gold prices, assets under management (AUM) grew by 6% to reach US$246 billion.

Netherlands International Group's commodity strategist Ewa Manthey said that gold prices will reach their peak in the fourth quarter, as investors are concerned about the Fed's interest rate cuts, and inflows of ETF funds and central bank purchases will continue to support gold prices.

Affected by yesterday's US PPI and geopolitical factors, today it once again approached its previous high.

How to seize the opportunity of rising gold prices? As gold ETF trading is convenient, liquid, and available for online trading during the trading session, investors can capture the opportunity of rising gold prices by investing in ETFs.

In fact, gold ETFs are one of this year's investment themes. From the perspective of the cumulative gains and losses from the beginning of the year to the close of July 29th, mainstream gold ETFs have risen by more than 15%, leading the 14.54% increase in the $gold main contract (2412) (GCmain.US)$.

In the Middle East, at the end of July, important Hamas leaders and Hezbollah's No. 2 figure died one after another, and the situation in the Middle East escalated rapidly. People are increasingly worried that Iran may launch retaliatory attacks at any time. According to the latest statements by three senior Iranian officials, the only way to prevent Iran from launching direct retaliatory attacks against Israel is to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza at the meeting that is expected to be held this week. One of the senior Iranian security officials said that if the Gaza talks fail or Iran believes that Israel is delaying negotiations, Iran will launch direct attacks along with allies like Hezbollah. $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Gold Trust Ishares (IAU.US)$ Global central bank net gold purchases in June were 12 tons, and the trend of gold purchases is still ongoing. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Gold ETFs have been one of the investment themes this year. As of the US Eastern Time on August 13th, mainstream gold ETFs have risen more than 19% this year, leading the csi commodity equity index, which has risen by 13.93%.

Editor/Jeffy

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