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US stock market preview | CPI fell for the fourth consecutive month in July, three major futures indexes fell slightly before the market; Confidence in inflation cooling increases! Goldman Sachs: Need to pay attention to retail sales and jobless claims da

Futu News · 20:40

热点要闻

美国7月CPI低于预期，美股三大股指期货盘前微跌

美国7月未季调CPI年率为2.9%，连续第四个月回落，是2021年3月以来首次重回“2字头”，市场预期为3%。美国7月未季调核心CPI年率为3.2%，连续第4个月回落，为2021年4月以来最低水平，符合市场预期。

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一，英伟达、美光科技涨超1%

维多利亚的秘密盘前涨超15%，公司第二季度业绩超预期，宣布新任CEO

$维多利亚的秘密 (VSCO.US)$盘前涨超15%，报22.05美元，第二季度调整后每股收益初值为0.34-0.39美元，市场预估0.16美元，此外，公司任命Hillary Super担任首席执行官。

家乐氏盘前涨超7%，玛氏接近以每股83.5美元的价格收购该公司

$家乐氏 (K.US)$盘前涨超7%，报80美元。消息面上，玛氏将以每股83.5美元(较昨日收盘价74.5美元溢价约12%)的全现金交易收购旗下拥有Cheez-It和品客薯片等品牌的家乐氏，总金额接近300亿美元，预计最早在8月14日宣布。一旦交易达成，其将成为包装食品行业有史以来规模最大的交易之一。

英伟达支持的Serve Robotics公司在Q2盈利中大获成功，盘前涨超30%

$Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$盘前涨超30%，报13.56美元。财报显示，该公司二季度每股亏损27美分，低于分析师预期的每股亏损25美分。该公司第二季度销售额为46.83万美元，超过分析师预期的40万美元。

博彩业巨头Flutter盘前涨超7%，Q2业绩强劲，上调全年指引

$Flutter Entertainment (FLUT.US)$盘前涨超7%，报204.8美元。该公司Q2表现强劲，营业收入增长20％，调整后EBITDA增长17％至73800万美元；净利润达到29700万美元，每股摊薄收益增长了290％。公司将其财年美国营收指引上调至605亿-635亿美元，集团美国以外的营收指引上调至785亿-815亿美元的区间。

Nu Holdings盘前涨超2%，Q2收入同比增长65%，增加520万名客户

$Nu Holdings (NU.US)$盘前涨超2%，报13美元。该公司第二季度收入为28亿美元，同比增长65%；调整后的净利润为5,630万美元，高于2023年第二季度的2,630万美元。第二季度增加了520万名客户，截至6月30日，总客户数达到1.045亿人。每个活跃客户的月均收入为11.20美元。

瑞银盘前涨超3%，Q2业绩超预期，财管新流入资金达270亿美元

$瑞银 (UBS.US)$盘前涨超3%，报30.14美元。消息面上，瑞银公布第二季度业绩，营收为119亿美元，同比增长24.7%，高于市场预期的114.7亿美元；摊薄后每股收益为0.34美元，亦超过市场预期的0.12美元。期内关键的财富管理业务获强劲流入，当期净新资产达270亿美元。在完成对瑞士信贷的收购一年后，瑞银有望达到合并前的盈利水平，并计划到2026年回购约20亿美元的股票。

网易盘前跌超3%，大摩料其下半年增速放缓且EPS上升有限

$网易 (NTES.US)$盘前跌超3%，报86.6美元。消息面上，摩根士丹利发表研报指，考虑到旗下《永劫无间》手游、《梦幻西游》PC版及《蛋仔派对》近月流水表现较弱，加上未来六个月即将推出的新游戏管线不多，相应将网易的美股目标价从100美元下调至90美元，将网易今明两年游戏收入增长预测下调至5%，并将2024至2026年每股盈利预测下调3%至9%。

必和必拓盘前跌超2%，与智利Escondida铜矿工会谈判破裂

矿业巨头$必和必拓 (BHP.US)$盘前跌超2%，报52.31美元。消息上，必和必拓当地时间8月13日宣布，由于与智利Escondida铜矿工会的谈判失败，公司已启动遣散罢工工人程序。尽管该铜矿目前仍在运营，但必和必拓并未透露运营规模是否已受到缩减。

星巴克换帅股价大涨，一call单狂赚789倍

$星巴克 (SBUX.US)$换帅，任命$奇波雷墨西哥烧烤 (CMG.US)$CEO接任！两股期权交易量齐齐冲高。星巴克期权成交量放大至前一日的10倍，看涨比45%，周五到期、行权价在86和90美元的call单期权金暴涨，分别升约789倍及636倍。

全球宏观

高盛：美国7月CPI备受关注，但对本周零售销售、失业金数据更为敏感

高盛高级市场顾问周二表示，投资者正在为周三将公布的美国7月CPI数据做准备，但随着对经济增长的担忧加剧，投资者也将对本周的其他数据保持敏感。Dom Wilson表示，除了美国7月CPI数据之外，还有更多的经济数据需要考虑。据悉，在今晚CPI公布之前，市场对通胀降温的信心增强。周二发布的美国7月PPI全面超预期下行，服务成本年内首次下滑，证明通胀形势已经逆转。

美国抵押贷款再融资指数创2020年以来最大增幅，受利率下降影响

随着借贷成本继续走低，美国抵押贷款再融资上周创下疫情爆发初期以来的最大增幅。美国抵押贷款银行家协会再融资指数上升34.5%，至两年多高位889.3。截至8月9日当周，购房抵押贷款申请上升2.8%，为6月第一周以来最大升幅。周三的MBA数据显示，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的合约利率下降1个基点至6.54%。15年期固定利率抵押贷款的利率下降7个基点至5.96%。

高盛和摩根大通模型：市场反映美国经济衰退可能性大幅上升

高盛和摩根大通的模型显示，从美国债市信号以及在较小程度上对商业周期起落较敏感的股票表现来看，市场暗示的经济衰退可能性已经大幅上升。高盛的数据显示，股市和债市目前认为美国经济衰退的可能性为41%，高于4月份的29%。摩根大通的一个类似模型计算出，由于美国国债的大幅重新定价，这种可能性从3月底的20%跃升至31%。

大摩：美股不太可能全线崩溃，建议投资偏重防御型

摩根士丹利全球策略团队主管迈克·威尔逊表示，尽管季节性因素和不明朗的增长前景可能会限制美国股市在本季度剩余时间里的涨幅，但同时，股市全线暴跌的可能性很低。但美股近两年来屡创新高，威尔逊此前对美股的悲观预期未能实现，最终他接受现实，在今年5月“空转头”，将标准普尔500指数12个月目标位上调20%。

岸田文雄确认“下车”后，分析师：新首相将为加息扫清道路

日本首相岸田文雄周三宣布不再竞选自民党魁第二任期，引发市场焦虑，因这预示着年内首相更迭及政策路径的不确定性。瑞穗证券策略师Shoki Omori警告，政治变动不利金融市场，尤其日股将受最大冲击。然而，圣宝银行Charu Chanana认为低支持率的岸田下台未必导致日股显著负面反应。策略师们关注新首相的经济政策走向，特别是对日本央行货币政策的立场。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

22:30 美国至8月9日当周EIA原油库存(万桶)

22:30 美国至8月9日当周EIA战略石油储备库存(万桶)

编辑/ping

Hot news

US July CPI lower than expected, US stock futures for the three major indexes fell slightly before the market.

US July non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY rate was 2.9%, which fell for the fourth consecutive month and returned to the "2 digit" level for the first time since March 2021, the market expectation is 3%. US July non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY rate was 3.2%, which fell for the fourth consecutive month and was at its lowest level since April 2021, in line with market expectations.

Star tech stocks are mixed before the market, with NVIDIA and Micron Technology up more than 1%.

Victoria's Secret rose more than 15% before the market. The company's second-quarter performance exceeded expectations, announcing a new CEO.

$Victoria's Secret (VSCO.US)$Up more than 15% before the market, closing at $22.05. The initial EPS after adjustment for the second quarter was $0.34-0.39, with the market expected to be $0.16. In addition, the company appointed Hillary Super as CEO.

Kellanova rose more than 7% before the market, and Mars is close to acquiring the company at a price of $83.5 per share.

$Kellanova (K.US)$Up more than 7% before the market, closing at $80. On the news, Mars will acquire Kellanova, which owns brands such as Cheez-It and Pringles, at $83.5 per share (about 12% premium over yesterday's closing price of $74.5 per share) in cash. The total amount is close to USD 30 billion, and is expected to be announced as early as August 14th. Once the transaction is completed, it will be one of the largest deals in the packaged food industry ever.

Serve Robotics, supported by Nvidia, achieved great success in Q2 profits, rising more than 30% before the market opened.

$Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$Before the opening, it rose more than 30%, reaching $13.56. According to the financial report, the company's second-quarter loss per share was 27 cents, lower than the analyst's expected loss per share of 25 cents. The company's second-quarter sales were $0.4683 million, exceeding the analyst's expected $0.4 million.

Gambling industry giant Flutter rose more than 7% before the market, with strong Q2 performance and raised annual guidance.

$Flutter Entertainment (FLUT.US)$Up more than 7% before the market, with a closing price of $204.8. The company performed strongly in Q2, with revenue growth of 20%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 17% to USD 738 million, and net income reaching USD 297 million, with diluted earnings per share up 290%. The company raised its US revenue guidance for the fiscal year to USD 60.5 billion-63.5 billion and its non-US revenue guidance to USD 78.5 billion-81.5 billion.

Nu Holdings rose more than 2% before the market, Q2 revenue YoY increased by 65%, and adding 5.2 million customers.

$Nu Holdings (NU.US)$Up more than 2% before the market, closing at $13. The company's second-quarter revenue was USD 2.8 billion, up 65% YoY; its adjusted net profit was USD 56.3 million, higher than USD 26.3 million in the second quarter of 2023. In the second quarter, 5.2 million customers were added, and as of June 30, the total number of customers reached 0.1045 billion. The average monthly revenue per active customer is $11.20.

UBS rose more than 3% before the market, with better-than-expected Q2 performance and new inflows of assets under management amounting to USD 27 billion.

$UBS Group (UBS.US)$Up more than 3% before the market, with a closing price of $30.14. On the news, UBS released its Q2 results, with revenues of USD 11.9 billion, up 24.7% YoY, higher than the market's expected USD 11.47 billion; Diluted EPS was $0.34, also beating the market's expected $0.12. Key wealth management business received strong inflows, with net new assets of USD27 billion for the period. After completing the acquisition of Swiss Credit one year, UBS is expected to reach its pre-merger profit level and plans to repurchase approximately USD 2 billion of shares by 2026.

NetEase fell more than 3% before the market. Morgan Stanley expects its growth rate to slow down in the second half of the year and EPS to increase limitedly.

$NetEase (NTES.US)$Down more than 3% before the market, closing at $86.6. Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that due to the weak performance of its games such as "Endless Frontier", the PC version of "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Egg Party" in recent months, and there are not many new games in the pipeline for the next six months, the target price for Netease's US stock was lowered from $100 to $90, and the revenue growth forecast for Netease's games in the next two years was lowered to 5%, and the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 was lowered to 9%.

Mining giant BHP fell more than 2% before the market, and negotiations with the Chilean Escondida copper mine union broke down.

Mining giant$BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US)$Down more than 2% before the market, closing at $52.31. On the news, BHP announced on August 13 that it has launched a process to dismiss striking workers because negotiations with the Chilean Escondida copper mine union have failed. Although the copper mine is still in operation, BHP has not disclosed whether the scale of operations has been reduced.

Starbucks CEO change caused a surge in stocks, with one call option earning 789 times profit.

$Starbucks (SBUX.US)$Change of CEO, appointment.$Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US)$The trading volume of two call options surged as Starbucks options trading volume expanded to 10 times that of the previous day. The call option on Friday with a strike price of 86 and 90 US dollars rose sharply, about 789 times and 636 times, respectively. Bullish options accounted for 45%.

Global macro

Goldman Sachs: The US CPI in July is of great concern, but more sensitive to retail sales and jobless claims data this week.

Goldman Sachs' senior market adviser said on Tuesday that investors are preparing for the July CPI data to be released on Wednesday. However, as concerns about economic growth intensify, investors will also remain sensitive to other data this week. Dom Wilson said there are more economic data that needs to be considered in addition to the July CPI data. Before tonight's CPI is released, the market's confidence in easing inflation has increased. Tuesday's release of US July PPI was down overwhelmingly, the first drop in service costs this year, proving that the inflation situation has reversed.

The US mortgage refinance index has seen its largest increase since 2020 due to the downward pressure on interest rates.

As lending costs continue to decline, US mortgage refinancing had its largest weekly increase since the outbreak of the pandemic. The MBA Refinance Index rose 34.5% to a two-year high of 889.3. As of the week of August 9th, home mortgage applications increased by 2.8%, the largest increase since the first week of June. Wednesday's MBA data showed that the contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 1 basis point to 6.54% and the interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 7 basis points to 5.96%.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan models: the market reflects a significant increase in the possibility of a US economic recession.

Models by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan show that the market indicates a significant increase in the possibility of a US economic recession based on signals from the US bond market and stock performance, which is more sensitive to ups and downs in the business cycle. Goldman Sachs data shows that the stock and bond markets currently believe that the possibility of a US economic recession is 41%, higher than 29% in April. A similar model from JPMorgan calculated that this possibility has jumped from 20% at the end of March to 31% due to the significant repricing of US Treasuries.

Daiwa Securities: US stocks are unlikely to collapse across the board, and investment should be biased towards defensive stocks.

Mike Wilson, head of global strategy at Morgan Stanley, said that although seasonal factors and uncertain growth prospects may limit the US stock market's gains for the remaining time this quarter, the possibility of a market-wide crash is very low. However, the US stock market has repeatedly hit record highs in the past two years. Wilson's previous negative expectations for the US stock market did not come to fruition, and he ultimately accepted reality, shifting his 12-month target for the S&P 500 index up by 20% in May.

After Fumio Kishida's confirmation to step down, analysts believe the new Prime Minister will clear the way for interest rate hikes.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on Wednesday that he will not run for a second term as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, causing market anxiety because this portends uncertainty in the change of prime minister and policy direction. Daiwa Securities strategist Shoki Omori warned that political changes are disadvantageous to financial markets, especially the stock market in Japan would be impacted the most. However, Standard Bank's Charu Chanana believes that Kishida's low approval rating does not necessarily lead to a significantly negative reaction in the Japanese stock market. Analysts are concerned about the new prime minister's economic policy direction, especially his stance on monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:30 US crude oil inventory as of August 9th (10,000 barrels)

22:30 US strategic petroleum reserve inventory as of August 9th (10,000 barrels)

Editor/ping

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