Finance Association, August 14 (Reporter He Fan) Vaccines are in full swing. As of the closing of the market this morning, the market value of the former vaccine “one brother”, Zhifei Biotech (300122.SZ), has fallen below 60 billion yuan, and the stock price hit a new low in the past 5 years. As the sole agent of MSD's HPV vaccine in China, sales of MSD's HPV vaccine declined in the first half of this year, casting a shadow over the company's future; at the same time, the launch of the domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine accelerated, which may break the industry monopoly. Industry experts told the Financial Federation reporter that Zhifei Biotech's operations in the next two years will face some pressure.

After two consecutive days of decline, Zhifei Biotech's stock price fell 2.85% as of the midday trading session, a new low in nearly 5 years. Since this year, Zhifei Biotech's stock price has fallen by more than 55%.

In fact, since the release of the 2023 report on April 22, Zhifei Biotech's stock price has fallen sharply. The Financial Association once reported that by the close of trading on April 24, Zhifei Biotech's market value had been surpassed by Wantai Biotech (603392.SH), and the status of “Vaccine Brother” had already shaken. (See report for details:

“Nearly 15 billion dollars evaporated in two days, and the vaccine market capitalization gave way! Zhifei Biotech “If you don't pay back, you won't be able to open the pot” old news is all over the place”

) As of the close of trading this morning, the market value of Wantai Biotech was 85.261 billion yuan, while the market value of Zhifei Biotech was 59.485 billion yuan, further widening the gap.

In response, the Financial Services Association reporter telephoned Zhifei Biotech as an investor. The securities department staff said that the decline in stock prices is affected by various factors. The company is concerned about the situation where the market value is less than 60 billion, and the company will definitely continue to operate well. As for stock prices, the company will actively promote the company's value and business conditions to the outside world.

Judging from the 2023 report, Zhifei Biotech's agent product revenue accounts for 98% of the total annual revenue, and is a real “big agent” in the vaccine industry. Currently, the company's agent products include MSD's quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccines, five-valent rotational vaccines, 23-valent pneumonia vaccines, and GSK's recombinant shingles vaccine.

However, judging from the semi-annual report recently disclosed by MSD, the increase in its HPV vaccine fell far short of expectations. Financial reports show that the MSD HPV vaccine generated a total revenue of 4.727 billion US dollars in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 7% from 14% last year. MSD said that 60% to 70% of its HPV vaccine sales came from China, and sales growth of the HPV vaccine in the first half of the year was not as high as before, mainly due to the decline in sales in the Chinese market.

As the sole agent of MSD's HPV vaccine in China, the impact of the above situation is unimportant. In the first quarter of this year, Zhifei Biotech achieved revenue of 11.396 billion yuan, an increase of only 2% over the previous year, and net profit of 1.458 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.26%.

When a CFA reporter asked about the impact of the decline in sales of the MSD HPV vaccine in the Chinese market on Zhifei Biotech as an investor, the company's securities department staff said that they have paid attention to related news, but since the company has yet to disclose its semi-annual report, its impact on performance is not very clear.

Industry expert Li Changcheng told the Financial Federation reporter that, on the one hand, the decline in the consumption capacity of the population will lead to a decline in sales of high-end vaccines such as the nine-valent HPV vaccine, and secondly, geopolitical factors have also had a certain impact.

Furthermore, judging from Zhifei Biotech's response on the investor interactive platform on August 9, the company's recombinant shingles vaccine on behalf of GSK obtained the first batch of issuance certificates in March of this year.

On the other hand, domestic vaccine companies have made great progress in the nine-valent HPV vaccine, and the marketing process has been accelerated. On August 13, Wantai Biotech issued an announcement stating that the nine-valent HPV vaccine developed by the CDE will be included in the public list of priority review varieties.

In addition, according to data from Yao Rongyun, the nine-valent HPV vaccines from domestic companies such as Watson Biotech (300142.SZ), Wellness Guard (833575.BJ), Recco Biotech (02179.HK), and Bowei Biotech are all in phase III clinical trials.

Zhifei Biotech Securities Department staff said that with regard to the HPV vaccine, the company will definitely strive to achieve the goal of eliminating cervical cancer through promotion work. The marketing of the domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine will definitely have some impact, but judging from the overall HPV vaccination rate and market space, the MSD HPV vaccine will still have a large market space in the future. At the same time, the MSD vaccine has also been approved overseas for male indications.

“The domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to be launched one after another in the next two years, and Zhifei Biotech will face certain operating pressure in the next two years.” Li Changcheng said.