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US Stock Market Outlook: US July PPI Lower Than Expected, Three Major Futures Contracts Rise Before Trading; Has the Darkest Moment Passed? Goldman Sachs: US Stocks May See a Good Buying Opportunity

Futu News · Aug 13 20:34

热点要闻

美国7月PPI低于预期，美股三大股指期货盘前拉升

美国7月PPI同比增长2.2%，预期增2.3%，前值增2.6%。

明星科技股盘前多数上涨，英伟达涨近2%

谷歌抢先苹果发布AI手机，新款Pixel发布会提前至周二举行

Alphabet旗下$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$将于美东时间周二下午13:00举行新品发布会。在将举行的硬件发布会中，谷歌试图超越苹果的年度iPhone发布会，并让长期担任高管的里克·奥斯特洛成为焦点。谷歌将年度旗舰智能手机Pixel的发布时间从10月提前至8月，抢在苹果公司下一代iPhone的发布时间之前。

拼多多盘前涨1.28%，Q2获私募巨头大举加仓

$拼多多 (PDD.US)$盘前涨1.28%，报144.29美元。消息上，国内私募巨头景林资产美股持仓曝光。具体来看，景林香港公司在今年二季度大举加仓了拼多多，将其重新买成第一大重仓股。另外，资管巨头柏基近日提交了截至2024年二季度末的美股持仓报告。报告显示，柏基加仓拼多多约34.8万股，拼多多跃升成为其投资组合的第六大重仓股。

盘前暴涨超70%，CXApp迎“泼天富贵”！与谷歌云达成数百万美元协议

$CXApp (CXAI.US)$盘前暴涨超70%，报2.56美元。美国知名移动办公体验平台CXApp与全球云服务巨头谷歌云签署了一项为期多年、价值数百万美元的合作协议，相比之下CXApp目前的季度销售额仅徘徊在170万美元附近。

星巴克盘前涨超14%，任命Brian Niccol为董事长兼首席执行官

$星巴克 (SBUX.US)$盘前涨超14%，报88.01美元。该公司今天宣布，Brian Niccol被任命为董事长兼首席执行官。Niccol将于2024年9月9日开始担任新职务。星巴克首席财务官Rachel Ruggeri将担任临时首席执行官直至该任命。星巴克董事会主席MellodyHobson将成为首席独立董事。

盘前涨近10%，虎牙第二季度总收入达15.4亿元，可能回购至多1亿美元的ADS或普通股

$虎牙 (HUYA.US)$盘前涨近10%，报4.9美元。财报显示，虎牙2024年第二季度总收入达15.4亿元。其中，来自游戏相关服务、广告和其他业务的收入同比增长152.7%至3.1亿元。在非美国通用会计准则下，该季度净利润为9700万元。用户数据方面，2024年第二季度，移动端MAU（月均活跃用户数）增至8350万。且可能回购至多1亿美元的ADS或普通股。

盘前跌超2%，家得宝Q2销售额431.8亿美元不及预期

$家得宝 (HD.US)$盘前跌超2%，报337.52美元。家得宝Q2销售额431.8亿美元不及预期，每股收益4.60美元。家得宝第二季度销售额431.8亿美元，预估437.9亿美元;第二季度每股收益4.60美元，上年同期4.65美元。

盘前跌超1%，Sea第二季度营收38.07亿美元，同比增长23%

$Sea (SE.US)$盘前跌超1%，报66.22美元。Sea第二季度净利润7991.1万美元，同比下滑75.9%，Q2营收38.07亿美元，同比增长23%；净利润7991.1万美元，同比下滑75.9%。

盘前下跌8%，腾讯音乐第二季度营收71.6亿元人民币，同比降1.7%

$腾讯音乐 (TME.US)$盘前下跌8%，报12.08美元。财报显示，腾讯音乐二季度总收入为71.6亿元，同比降1.7%；调整后净利润达19.9亿元，同比增长25.7%。其中，在线音乐业务持续强劲增长，第二季度在线音乐订阅收入同比增长29.4%，达37.4亿元；在线音乐付费用户数同比增长17.7%达1.17亿，再创历史新高。

英伟达自低点已反弹超20%！期权链多空博弈焦灼

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$隔夜大涨超4%，从上周一股价低点（90.69美元）已反弹超20%。期权看涨比率上升至58%，隐含波动率连续三日下降，目前约报70%；期权链上，多空博弈较为焦灼，成交量前两名的分别为本周五到期、110美元行权的call和100美元行权的put；前者成交量较高，为22万张，未平仓量9.6万张，但后者未平仓量非常高，超过14万张合约未平仓。

全球宏观

至暗时刻已过？准确预测本轮回调的高盛专家：8月底迎来美股抄底良机

高盛集团全球市场部董事总经理兼策略专家Scott Rubner周一表示，随着系统性基金的抛售压力缓解，以及公司加大股票回购力度，投资者将在8月底迎来一个短暂的逢低吸纳美股的窗口期。他表示：“这将是我最后一次看空8月股市，因为8月份股市供需错配最严重的时期即将结束。”

美银：若美国7月CPI逊于预期，或重新引发滞涨担忧

美国银行全球研究部表示，本周三将公布的美国7月CPI将是股市面临的又一大挑战。美银预计，7月CPI将同比上涨3.0%，环比上涨0.25%；剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI将同比上涨3.3%，环比上涨0.22%。美国银行分析师Ohsung Kwon表示：“过热的CPI数据将是一个重大的下行事件，可能会使市场重新陷入滞涨担忧。”

美国财政年度接近尾声，预算赤字已超1.5万亿美元

在离本财年结束还有两个月的时候，美国的预算赤字超过了1.5万亿美元。尽管较2023财年略有下降，但远高于疫情前水平。美国财政部公布的数据显示，在截至7月份的10个月里，美国的预算赤字为1.52万亿美元，较上年同期下降了6%;7月份的预算赤字为2440亿美元，根据日历差异调整后较2023年7月下降了16%。

IEA：如果OPEC+增加供应，原油市场将面临供应过剩

国际能源署(IEA)最新月报显示，如果OPEC+继续实施增加供应的计划，全球石油市场下个季度将从短缺转为过剩。由于供应难以跟上夏季高峰需求，导致市场出现短缺，全球库存受到打击，但应该会在今年最后一个季度稳定下来。从供给方面看，非OPEC+产油国2024年和2025年将增加150万桶/日。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

次日凌晨

01:15 2024年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克就经济发表讲话

04:30 美国至8月9日当周API原油库存(万桶)

编辑/ping

Hot news

US July PPI lower than expected, US stock index futures rose before market open.

US July PPI increased by 2.2% year-on-year, expected to increase by 2.3%, and the previous value increased by 2.6%.

Growth tech soared before the market, Nvidia rose nearly 2%.

Google releases its AI phone ahead of Apple, and the new Pixel release will be held on Tuesday.

Owned by Alphabet.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Will hold a new product launch event at 1:00 pm Eastern Time on Tuesday. In the hardware release event, Google tries to surpass Apple's annual iPhone event and make Rick Osterloh, who has long served as an executive, the focus. Google will release the flagship smartphone Pixel in August, ahead of the release date of Apple's next-generation iPhone.

PDD Holdings rose 1.28% before the market, Q2 received a large private placement.

$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$Rose 1.28% before the market, reporting 144.29 US dollars. On the news side, domestic private equity giant Jinglin Assets’ US stock position exposure. Specifically, Jinglin's Hong Kong company bought a large number of PDD Holdings in the second quarter of this year, making it the number one heavy stock position again. In addition, the asset management giant Baokai recently submitted a report on its US stock holdings as of the end of the second quarter of 2024. The report shows that Baokai has increased its position in Pinduoduo by about 0.348 million shares, and Pinduoduo has jumped to the sixth largest heavy stock position in its investment portfolio.

Up more than 70% before the market, CXApp welcomes “huge wealth”! Reached a contract worth millions of dollars with Google Cloud.

$CXApp (CXAI.US)$Up more than 70% before the market, reporting 2.56 US dollars. Famous American mobile office experience platform CXApp signed a cooperation agreement with Google Cloud, which is worth millions of dollars for several years while CXApp's current quarterly sales are hovering around 1.7 million US dollars.

Starbucks rose more than 14% before the market, appointing Brian Niccol as Chairman and CEO.

$Starbucks (SBUX.US)$Rose more than 14% before the market, reporting 88.01 US dollars. The company announced today that Brian Niccol has been appointed as Chairman and CEO. Niccol will take up the new position from September 9, 2024. Starbucks Chief Financial Officer Rachel Ruggeri will act as interim CEO until the appointment. Mellody Hobson, chairman of the Starbucks board of directors, will become chief independent director.

Huya Inc. rose nearly 10% before the market, with total revenue in the second quarter reaching 1.54 billion yuan and may buy back up to 0.1 billion US dollars of ADS or common shares.

$HUYA Inc (HUYA.US)$Home Depot fell more than 2% before the market, with Q2 sales of 43.18 billion US dollars falling short of expectations.

Fell more than 2% before the market, reporting 337.52 US dollars. Home Depot's Q2 sales of 43.18 billion US dollars fell short of expectations, with EPS of 4.60 US dollars. Home Depot's Q2 sales were 43.18 billion US dollars, estimated at 43.79 billion US dollars; Q2 EPS is $4.60, compared with $4.65 in the same period last year.

$Home Depot (HD.US)$Sea fell more than 1% before the market, with Q2 revenue of 3.807 billion US dollars, an increase of 23% year-on-year.

Fell more than 1% before the market, reporting 66.22 US dollars. Sea's net profit in the second quarter was 79.911 US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 75.9%, and Q2 revenue was 3.807 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The net profit was 79.911 US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 75.9%.

$Sea (SE.US)$Tencent Music fell 1.7% year-on-year to 7.16 billion yuan in Q2.

Tencent Music fell 8% pre-market, with Q2 revenue of RMB 7.16 billion, down 1.7% YoY.

$Tencent Music (TME.US)$Pre-market plunges 8% to $12.08. Tencent Music's Q2 financial report shows a total revenue of 7.16 billion yuan, down 1.7% YoY; adjusted net income rose 25.7% to 1.99 billion yuan. The online music business continues to grow strongly, with Q2 online music subscription revenue up 29.4% YoY to 3.74 billion yuan; online music paid users up 17.7% YoY to 0.117 billion, reaching a new historical high.

Nvidia has rebounded more than 20% from its low point! The long and short positions in the options chain are intense.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It rose more than 4% overnight and has rebounded more than 20% from last Monday's low of $90.69. The call-to-put ratio of the options chain rose to 58%,Implied volatilityIt has continued to decline for three consecutive days, currently at about 70%; in the options chain, the long and short positions are more intense, with the top two trading volumes being call options with a strike price of $110 that expires this Friday and put options with a strike price of $100; the former has a higher trading volume of 0.22 million contracts and an open interest of 0.096 million contracts, but the open interest of the latter is very high, exceeding 0.14 million contracts.

Global macro

Has the darkest moment passed? Goldman Sachs experts accurately predict the pullback of this round, and August will provide a good opportunity to buy US stocks.

Scott Rubner, managing director and chief strategist of Goldman Sachs' global markets division, said on Monday that as systematic funds' selling pressure eases and the company increases share buybacks, investors will have a short window of opportunity to buy low on US stocks at the end of August. He said: "This will be the last time I'm bearish on the August stock market, as the most serious supply-demand mismatch in the August stock market will soon come to an end."

USA Bank: If July's CPI in the USA is lower than expected, it may trigger stagflation concerns again.

Bank of America Global Research said that US CPI data for July, which will be released on Wednesday this week, will be another major challenge for the stock market. Bank of America expects July CPI to rise 3.0% YoY and 0.25% MoM; core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3.3% YoY and 0.22% MoM. Ohsung Kwon, an analyst at Bank of America, said: "Overheating CPI data will be a major downside event that may rekindle concerns about stagflation in the market."

As the US fiscal year draws to a close, the budget deficit has exceeded $1.5 trillion.

With two months left in this fiscal year, the US budget deficit has exceeded $1.5 trillion. Although it has slightly fallen compared to the 2023 fiscal year, it is still much higher than pre-pandemic levels. Data released by the US Treasury Department shows that in the 10 months ending in July, the US budget deficit was $1.52 trillion, a decrease of 6% from the same period last year. The budget deficit for July was $244 billion, a 16% decrease from July 2023 after adjusting for calendar differences.

IEA: If OPEC+ increases supply, the crude oil market will face an oversupply.

The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that if OPEC+ continues to implement plans to increase supply, the global oil market will shift from a shortage to an oversupply in the next quarter. Due to the difficulty in keeping up with demand during the summer peak season, the market has experienced shortages, causing global inventories to be impacted, but they are expected to stabilize in the last quarter of this year. From the supply side, non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries will increase production by 1.5 million barrels/day in 2024 and 2025.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

The next morning

01:15 FOMC voting member and President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bostic speaks on the economy

04:30 US API crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels) as of August 9

Editor/ping

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