Incident: Xingtong Co., Ltd. announced its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 0.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.56%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 0.18 billion yuan, an increase of 31.56% year-on-year, and a return on net assets of 7.89%, an increase of 1.37pp over the same period last year. Among them, the second quarter achieved operating income of 0.387 billion yuan, an increase of 35.35% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 0.103 billion yuan, an increase of 71.31% over the previous year, achieving high-quality performance growth.
The fleet structure is continuously optimized, and the scale of foreign trade continues to expand. As of June 30, 2024, the company had 35 bulk liquid dangerous goods vessels of various types, with a capacity of 0.41 million dwt. Among them, there are 22 domestic chemical tankers, with a capacity of 0.2373 million DWT; 7 foreign trade chemical tankers with a capacity of 0.1025 million DWT; 3 refined oil tankers with a capacity of 0.0587 million DWT; and 3 LPG ships with a capacity of 0.0115 million DWT. A global transportation network has now been formed. Domestic trade routes reach the national coast and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Pearl River, and foreign trade routes cover the Middle East, the Mediterranean, Europe, America, Southeast Asia and other regions.
The growth rate of capacity will slow in the next 2-3 years, and the scale of global chemical shipping capacity is manageable. The fleet is entering an aging stage. Coupled with increasingly strict environmental protection conventions, the effective capacity supply is expected to be lower than the nominal capacity supply. The expected number of chemical ships put into operation in 2024-2028 is 565, with a capacity of 16.86 million dwt, accounting for only about 13% of the current ship size. Looking at the ship age structure, according to Drewry data, as of the end of June 2024, 66.4% of global chemical ships were older than 10 years.
Global chemical trade has maintained steady growth, in line with the long-term growth trend of global GDP. Increased global economic activity directly drives the growth of chemical trade. According to Clarksons forecast, global chemical trade will increase 106 billion tonnes and miles in 2025 compared to 2023, with a compound growth rate of 3.3%. Chemical trade will continue to grow steadily in the next few years.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Slowing supply combined with growing demand has further strengthened freight rates in the spot market. The company will enjoy higher profits by setting up international transportation services through the construction of new chemical tankers. Continued attention is recommended.
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 1.58 billion yuan, 1.76 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively; net profit to mother is 0.35 billion yuan, 0.41 billion yuan, 0.52 billion yuan, and EPS is 1.25 yuan, 1.46 yuan, and 1.84 billion yuan, respectively.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, capacity regulation policy risk, ship safety operation risk, environmental protection risk, fuel price fluctuation risk, etc.