After vying for the first market capitalization of US stocks, Nvidia has entered a "correction" mode since mid-to-late June. Last Monday ("Black Monday"), the stock price fell below the $100 mark, and has gradually rebounded in recent days. The stock price has rebounded by about 20% from its lowest point, but there is still about 30% room for the highest point. In terms of product structure, products with operating incomes of 4.01/12.88/0.06 billion yuan respectively in the 10-30 billion yuan range.
However, thanks to the strong performance since the beginning of this year, Nvidia's cumulative increase is still as high as 120%. As of the time of writing, Nvidia's intra-day rise exceeded 4%.
How does Wall Street view the future trend?
Although Nvidia's recent performance has been poor, major Wall Street banks including Bank of America and UBS are still optimistic about Nvidia's future trend and believe that the recent decline in the semiconductor industry is overdone.
Analysts at Bank of America stated that Nvidia is one of the bank's most bullish "rebound" choices and expects the semiconductor industry to recover by the end of 2024. The analyst said,
"Our basic forecast is still that with the dissipation of seasonal unfavorable factors, the semiconductor industry may rebound in the fourth quarter. Broadcom and KLA Corp may also benefit from the rebound in the semiconductor industry, as they are the most profitable suppliers in their respective terminal markets in addition to Nvidia."
As for the market's recent concerns about the "delay" of Nvidia's new chip, Wall Street also believes that investors do not need to worry too much.
UBS maintained a buy rating on Nvidia even with the delay of the Blackwell GPU release and gave a target price of $150, emphasizing that there is no need to worry about Blackwell's delayed delivery news. The bank said,
"Bulk delivery of Blackwell may be delayed by four to six weeks, but any delay can be compensated by the purchase of H200 chips. Cooling for data centers, which is "almost invisible" delivery delays, may be more critical to the revenue structure of companies like Nvidia and AMD."
In addition, the bank also believes that the market may underestimate Nvidia's future profit growth. The market currently expects Nvidia's profit growth to peak in 2025, but considering discussions with customers, 2026 "seems more likely to increase again."
UBS Securities stated that Nvidia still has a lot of room for growth, and its upcoming performance will be the main catalyst for AI stocks. The bank raised Nvidia's target price from $127.5 to $132. The bank also stated,
Investors should ignore the noise about the possible delay of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chip and pointed out that demand for its GPU chips is still continuous in the market.
The current demand remains unchanged, and Nvidia will continue to lead this trend. The current capacity of Nvidia's H100 and H200 chips is still "tight", and any delay of Blackwell will not affect demand, but only delay H100 and H200 revenues by about two to three months.
It is worth noting that with the release of the Q2 13F reports from major Wall Street banks, it is also clear that these banks are actively "supporting" Nvidia.
JPMorgan Chase increased its holding of more than 11.16 million shares of Nvidia, 24.73 million shares of apple, as well as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta in the second quarter.
Although Citigroup reduced its holdings of some Nvidia shares in the second quarter, the company is still Citi's largest heavy stock.
What else is worth paying attention to?
Since August, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun has been selling Nvidia shares every trading day. According to SEC documents, Huang Renxun sold 0.12 million Nvidia shares per day for seven trading days from August 1 to August 9, with a total cash-out amount of 86.7652 million US dollars.
Since August, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been selling Nvidia's stock every trading day.
According to SEC documents, Huang sold 0.12 million shares of Nvidia's stock per day on seven trading days from August 1st to August 9th, with a total cash-out of $86.7652 million.
Back in June, Huang Renxun had already reduced his holdings of Nvidia stocks by $0.169 billion, and subsequently sold a record-breaking $0.3227 billion worth of stocks in July. However, in fact, Huang had already disclosed his decision to sell shares in the 6-8 months period in his "10b5-1" trading plan submitted in March.
It is worth noting that Huang Renxun is not the only Nvidia executive to unload shares. According to the filing, Nvidia board member Mark Stevens sold approximately $0.125 billion worth of stocks in July; Jay Puri, the company's executive VP for worldwide field operations, sold about $10 million worth of stock.
In addition, without a doubt, the next important milestone for Nvidia is the Q2 2021 earnings release, scheduled after the market close on August 28. Goldman Sachs warned that Nvidia's upcoming earnings report could have a significant impact on the entire AI market, as if the company's performance exceeds expectations, it could boost market sentiment; if it falls below expectations, it could exacerbate market uncertainties.
Moreover, from August 13th to August 29th, Super Micro Computer in the USA will hold its annual open storage summit, where experts from Super Micro Computer, Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Nutanix, Micron, and other companies will discuss hardware and software storage solutions for AI, cloud service providers, HPC, media and entertainment, HCI, and other topics. Investors can also closely watch whether these AI giants will discuss their future visions at the summit.
Do you think Nvidia's future performance will be bullish?
Mooers,
What is your target price in mind?
Super Micro Computer should be translated as Super Micro Computer, and Nvidia should be translated as Nvidia. Trade should be done at a global level with cloud computing services. Entertainment should be translated as entertainment, and the Board of Directors should be translated as the board of directors.
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