What are the positive factors to pay attention to in the continuous strength of Hong Kong petroleum stocks? How sustainable is the international oil price trend, which has returned to the $80 per barrel level?
On August 13th, the Hong Kong petroleum sector continued to strengthen, with the "three barrels of oil" rising collectively.
As of the time of publication, CNOOC (00883.HK) rose more than 2%, Kunlun Energy (00135.HK) rose more than 1%, while Sinopec (00386.HK) and PetroChina (00857.HK) followed the rise.
On the news front, the recent escalation of the situation in the Middle East has once again raised concerns in the market about the disruption of the supply and demand balance in the oil market.
In a report on August 12th, analysts at UBS Group said that to cope with further geopolitical tensions, investors are focusing on adding positions in oil and gold.
The energy team at Huatai Futures mentioned in their daily report on August 13th that the market is pricing in the possibility of further escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict, which may affect oil supplies or transportation in the Middle East.
Against this backdrop, international oil prices have been rising continuously in recent days, with both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures returning above $80 per barrel.
On the other hand, the recent slowdown in production by US refiners has also exacerbated market expectations of supply-side risks.
Ma Chen, an energy and chemical analyst at Guangjin Futures, said in a previous report that US crude oil production has remained at a level of 13.1-13.2 million barrels per day for four consecutive months. Due to the downward trend in the number of oil drilling platforms, the overall increase in US crude oil production this year is limited.
In addition, the recent turnaround in the Russia-Ukraine situation has led to a significant increase in European natural gas prices, which has driven up oil prices. Market data shows that on August 12th, European natural gas prices rose to 42 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since early December last year.
However, Huatai Futures also pointed out that the sustainability of supply-side risks brought about by geopolitical conflicts still needs to be observed, otherwise the uptrend will only be short-lived.
International investment bank Morgan Stanley believes that in the next few weeks, oil prices may be supported by a reduction in inventories, but fundamental factors may push prices back, mainly considering the return of US oil supply and OPEC+ production capacity.