これらの予想は既に確定している外部成長（物件譲渡や物件取得）や内部成長の実現を織り込むものの、毎期継続している含み益の顕在化を伴う資産入替による物件取得や物件譲渡益は織り込んでおらず、また慎重な稼働率やNOI利回り（実質利回りとも言う、実績賃貸業利益（年換算）/（（期初帳簿価額+期末帳簿価額）÷2）×100で計算）を前提にするなど、保守的な前提条件に基づいている。さらに今後の金利上昇の懸念に対しては、内部留保や含み益を活用したバリューアップ工事により賃料増額を強力に進めることから、業績予想は十分に達成可能な水準であると弊社では見ている。Outlook for Heiwa Real Estate Investment Trust <8966>.
Performance forecast for 2024 November period and 2025 May period.
In the 2024 November period (46th period), we expect an operating revenue of JPY 877.1 million (an increase of 0.4% YoY), an operating profit of JPY 444.5 million (a decrease of 0.8% YoY), an ordinary profit of JPY 385.9 million (a decrease of 2.0% YoY), and a net income of JPY 385.8 million (a decrease of 2.0% YoY). We will continue to exchange assets accompanied by the realization of unrealized gains and expect a transfer gain for the 15th consecutive period due to the transfer of office property No. 1, which has already been confirmed. However, the acquisition and transfer of properties that will occur in the future are not included. In addition, in the 2025 May period (47th period), we expect an operating revenue of JPY 808.4 million (a decrease of 7.8% YoY), an operating profit of JPY 374.0 million (a decrease of 15.9% YoY), an ordinary profit of JPY 314.3 million (a decrease of 18.6% YoY), and a net income of JPY 314.2 million (a decrease of 18.6% YoY) since acquisition and transfer of properties to be generated in the future are not included. We plan to allocate approximately JPY 0.35 billion for each period as value-up construction, which is an advance investment, but we intend to use transfer gains and retained earnings for this purpose. As a result, we expect EPU to increase to JPY 2,684 for the 2024 November period (an increase of JPY 8), and JPY 2,704 for the 2025 May period (an increase of JPY 20) from the original level. Furthermore, we expect DPU to update its record high level in 2024 November period to JPY 3,440 (an increase of JPY 60), and in the 2025 May period to JPY 3,450 (an increase of JPY 10).
These estimates incorporate external growth that has already been confirmed (property transfers and acquisitions) and internal growth, but not property acquisition or transfer gains from asset exchange, which has continued every period with the realization of unrealized gains. In addition, these estimates are based on conservative assumptions regarding factors such as careful operating rates and NOI yields (real yields, calculated as actual rental business profits (annualized) / ((beginning book value + ending book value) ÷ 2) × 100). Furthermore, we believe that our performance forecasts are easily attainable, given concerns about future rises in interest rates, by vigorously promoting rent increases through value-up construction utilizing retained earnings and unrealized gains.
(Written by FISCO guest analyst Nozomi Kokushige).