Arthur Hayes: Cryptos are expected to shake off the horizontal downtrend from September, and the crypto bull market in 2025 will be "very brilliant".

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a recent blog post that Yellen doesn't care about inflation at all. Her goal is to create nominal economic growth, thereby increasing tax revenue and reducing the ratio of US debt to GDP. The Treasury can inject massive liquidity by reducing TGA from about $750 billion to zero. They do this because the debt ceiling will take effect on January 1, 2025, and according to law, the Treasury can avoid or prevent government closure by cutting TGA. From now until the end of the year, Yellen will inject at least $301 billion and up to $1.05 trillion, which will create a brilliant bull market for all risk assets, including cryptos, before the election. As the issuance and repurchase program of US Treasury bonds operates behind the scenes, the liquidity situation will be improved. If Harris hesitates and needs to provide more firepower in the form of a stock market surge, Yellen will cut the national debt. Cryptos are expected to shake off the horizontal downtrend from September. As the net outstanding amount of US Treasury bonds will reach $301 billion from now until the end of the year according to Yellen, cash is still trapped on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (RRP) and cannot push up the prices of financial assets. Therefore, according to Yellen, the net issuance of US Treasuries will reach $301 billion from now until the end of the year. If this relationship holds, Bitcoin will quickly recover from the selling caused by the appreciation of the yen. The next stop for Bitcoin is $0.1 million. Altcoin season will return only after Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. Hayes also said: "This year is the best time for liquidity. Therefore, I will sell on rallies and invest my funds in and pledge them to Ethena USD (sUSDe). Once the farce of the US debt ceiling ends, liquidity will pour out from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, and the market will return to normal. Then the bull market will really begin. A $1 million Bitcoin is still my basic prediction. Once Yellen and Powell join forces, China will release its long-awaited fiscal stimulus plan. The crypto bull market in China and the United States in 2025 will be very brilliant."

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YouHodler risk manager Sergei Gorev said that as two important moving averages, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have formed a "death cross," indicating that the crypto market may further decline despite a brief rebound. In addition, BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said: "The drop in open positions of Bitcoin futures contracts exceeded the drop in token prices, indicating that investors' confidence and interest have declined due to the still high volatility. Trading volume is also lower than most weekends, indicating that small sell-offs have not received strong bearish action support."

QCP Capital's latest report pointed out that since the market's sharp correction last week, the BTC price has rebounded strongly, but is still struggling to stay above $60,000. The BTC put option skew has significantly recovered from -25% during the panic to -5% before the sell-off, but the market remains cautious in the short term, with expectations that BTC put option skew will continue until September. In the two major corrections in April and June this year, BTC rebounded to over 70k in less than a month. With the continuous positive capital inflow from Blackrock this week, QCP Capital expects liquidity and support from US investors to continue.

According to Lookonchain, Bitcoin's breach of the $60,000 mark may be due to institutions stopping the stablecoin buying frenzy. Institutions stopped receiving USDT from Tether Treasury and transferred it to exchanges two days ago. On August 9th monitoring, since the market crash on August 5th, 1.3 billion USDT have been transferred from Tether Treasury to exchanges.

Analysts at QCP Capital said that the BTC put option skew has recovered significantly from -25% during the panic to -5% before the sell-off, but the market remains cautious in the short term, with expectations that the BTC put option skew will continue until September.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a recent blog post that Yellen doesn't care about inflation at all. Her goal is to create nominal economic growth, thereby increasing tax revenue and reducing the ratio of US debt to GDP. The Treasury can inject massive liquidity by reducing TGA from about $750 billion to zero. They do this because the debt ceiling will take effect on January 1, 2025, and according to law, the Treasury can avoid or prevent government closure by cutting TGA. From now until the end of the year, Yellen will inject at least $301 billion and up to $1.05 trillion, which will create a brilliant bull market for all risk assets, including cryptos, before the election. As the issuance and repurchase program of US Treasury bonds operates behind the scenes, the liquidity situation will be improved. If Harris hesitates and needs to provide more firepower in the form of a stock market surge, Yellen will cut the national debt. Cryptos are expected to shake off the horizontal downtrend from September. As the net outstanding amount of US Treasury bonds will reach $301 billion from now until the end of the year according to Yellen, cash is still trapped on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (RRP) and cannot push up the prices of financial assets. Therefore, according to Yellen, the net issuance of US Treasuries will reach $301 billion from now until the end of the year. If this relationship holds, Bitcoin will quickly recover from the selling caused by the appreciation of the yen. The next stop for Bitcoin is $0.1 million. Altcoin season will return only after Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. Hayes also said: "This year is the best time for liquidity. Therefore, I will sell on rallies and invest my funds in and pledge them to Ethena USD (sUSDe). Once the farce of the US debt ceiling ends, liquidity will pour out from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, and the market will return to normal. Then the bull market will really begin. A $1 million Bitcoin is still my basic prediction. Once Yellen and Powell join forces, China will release its long-awaited fiscal stimulus plan. The crypto bull market in China and the United States in 2025 will be very brilliant."

According to a report from Binance, the market cap of cryptos increased by 6.1% in July, and the total TVL of DeFi increased by 3.5%.

According to the official blog, Binance Research discussed the main developments in the cryptocurrency market for the past month in its latest report: driven by the approval of 9 spot ETH ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the sale of 50,000 BTC by Germany and other positive developments, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies grew by 6.1% in July. However, people still worry about the repayment of Mt. Gox and the transfer of BTC by the US government. After the spot Ethereum ETF was launched, its trading volume was strong in the first week (about 5.8 billion US dollars), but the net outflow was about 0.484 billion US dollars, mainly due to the outflow of ETHE by Grayscale. In addition to ETHE, the net inflow of ETFs is 1.5 billion US dollars. In July, the total TVL of DeFi increased by 3.5%. The notable gainers this month include CORE, Scroll and Mantle, which rose by 121.2%, 66.0% and 30.9% respectively. This trend is due to the improvement of user experience, the increase in liquidity and the popularity of Meme coin trading. Due to the influence of the election cycle, the trading volume and number of active traders of the prediction platform Polymarket also reached a historical high, with trading volume in July soaring to more than 0.387 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 614% compared to January. In July, the sales of NFT market decreased by 7.14% to 400 million US dollars. DMarket leads with 16.2 million US dollars in sales, followed by DogeZuki on Solana, with sales of 13.9 million US dollars. The sales of Solana collections such as Solana Monkey Business and Retardio Cousins ​​increased significantly, while major Ethereum collections and top Ordinals collections showed significant declines.

The proposed online meeting of US Democratic Party cryptocurrency supporters will be held on August 15th.

According to official sources, Crypto4Harris, an organization composed of US Democratic Party cryptocurrency supporters, will hold an online town hall meeting from 8:00 am to 9:30 am on August 15th. According to previous reports, many guests including entrepreneurs Mark Cuban and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci will speak at the meeting to discuss ways to support Harris's campaign and raise funds. Prior to this, the US Democratic Party launched the "Crypto for Harris" campaign to counter Trump's crypto measures.

According to the official website of the US SEC, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced charges against Cynthia and Eddy Petion and their company NovaTech Ltd., accusing them of implementing a fraudulent plan that raised more than 0.65 billion US dollars in cryptocurrencies from more than 200,000 investors worldwide. The US Securities and Exchange Commission also accused Martin Zizi, Dapilinu Dunbar, James Corbett, Corrie Sampson, John Garofano and Marsha Hadley of promoting NovaTech to investors. According to the SEC's complaint, from 2019 to 2023, the Petions operated NovaTech as a multi-level marketing (MLM) and cryptocurrency investment plan. They claimed that NovaTech would invest their funds in cryptocurrencies and forex markets to attract investors. NovaTech used most of the investor funds to pay existing investors and pay commissions to promoters, and only a small portion of investor funds were used for trading. Petions diverted millions of dollars of investor assets for themselves. When NovaTech finally collapsed, most investors could not withdraw their investments, resulting in huge losses. The lawsuit filed by the SEC in the Southern District Court of Florida accuses the defendants of violating the anti-fraud provisions of federal securities laws and violating registration rules. The lawsuit seeks permanent injunctive relief, the disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, and civil penalties. Zizi neither admits nor denies the allegations, but agrees to a partial settlement of the SEC's charges, agreeing to pay a civil penalty of 0.1 million US dollars and a permanent injunction against future violations of the charge terms. The other amounts of monetary compensation will be determined later. The partial settlement requires court approval.

According to The Block, the staking protocol Symbiotic has launched its development network on the Ethereum Holesky test network, and the main network will be released later in the third quarter. Symbiotic allows users to deposit funds by sharing a secure model to support third-party protocols, positioning itself as the competitor of Ethereum's first staking protocol, EigenLayer. In addition to Ethereum and specific derivatives, it also supports a variety of ERC-20 tokens. This deployment includes Symbiotic's core contracts, including its insurance library and collateral system, which allows any asset to be staked to protect third-party protocols.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest blog post that from now until the end of the year, Yellen will inject at least 301 billion US dollars and up to 1.05 trillion US dollars. This will create a brilliant bull market for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, before the election. According to Yellen, the net issuance of US Treasuries will reach 301 billion US dollars from now until the end of the year. If this relationship is established, Bitcoin will quickly return the yen appreciation sales. The next stop of Bitcoin is 0.1 million US dollars. Only when Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively break through 70,000 US dollars and 4,000 US dollars, the imitation season will return. Hayes also said, "This year is the best time for liquidity. Therefore, I will sell on the high side. And use the funds to pledge to Ethena USD (sUSDe)."

According to The Block, the dominant position of DeFi (measuring the percentage of DeFi's market value in the global cryptocurrency market value) has fallen to its lowest level in three years, from 3.82% on Monday to a low of 2.84% on Friday. This is the lowest point of this index since the big appreciation before the "DeFi summer" of 2021 and before. Since September 2022, the dominant position of DeFi has gradually decreased, occasionally showing a small rebound. By the beginning of 2024, this ratio had dropped to 4.47%. In 2024, the performance of sectors like memecoin is better than the market, and the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has also attracted institutional interest in these assets. Therefore, most DeFi tokens are in a state of uncertainty. This has led to a 29% decrease in DeFi's dominance this year, and market participants are not very interested in the performance of most DeFi tokens.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest blog post that from now until the end of the year, Yellen will inject at least 301 billion US dollars and up to 1.05 trillion US dollars. This will create a brilliant bull market for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, before the election. According to Yellen, the net issuance of US Treasuries will reach 301 billion US dollars from now until the end of the year. If this relationship is established, Bitcoin will quickly return the yen appreciation sales. The next stop of Bitcoin is 0.1 million US dollars. Only when Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively break through 70,000 US dollars and 4,000 US dollars, the imitation season will return. Hayes also said, "This year is the best time for liquidity. Therefore, I will sell on the high side. And use the funds to pledge to Ethena USD (sUSDe)."

According to the official blog, Binance Research discussed the main developments in the cryptocurrency market for the past month in its latest report: driven by the approval of 9 spot ETH ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the sale of 50,000 BTC by Germany and other positive developments, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies grew by 6.1% in July. However, people still worry about the repayment of Mt. Gox and the transfer of BTC by the US government. After the spot Ethereum ETF was launched, its trading volume was strong in the first week (about 5.8 billion US dollars), but the net outflow was about 0.484 billion US dollars, mainly due to the outflow of ETHE by Grayscale. In addition to ETHE, the net inflow of ETFs is 1.5 billion US dollars. In July, the total TVL of DeFi increased by 3.5%. The notable gainers this month include CORE, Scroll and Mantle, which rose by 121.2%, 66.0% and 30.9% respectively. This trend is due to the improvement of user experience, the increase in liquidity and the popularity of Meme coin trading. Due to the influence of the election cycle, the trading volume and number of active traders of the prediction platform Polymarket also reached a historical high, with trading volume in July soaring to more than 0.387 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 614% compared to January. In July, the sales of NFT market decreased by 7.14% to 400 million US dollars. DMarket leads with 16.2 million US dollars in sales, followed by DogeZuki on Solana, with sales of 13.9 million US dollars. The sales of Solana collections such as Solana Monkey Business and Retardio Cousins​​ increased significantly, while major Ethereum collections and top Ordinals collections showed significant declines.

DeFi protocol NAVI TVL has exceeded 0.29 billion US dollars, reaching a new historical high.

According to The Block data, the dominance of DeFi (measured by the percentage of DeFi market cap to the global crypto market cap) has dropped to its lowest level in three years, from 3.82% on Monday to a low of 2.84% on Friday. This is the lowest point for the index since the sharp rally prior to the DeFi summer of 2021. Since DeFi dominance was around 4.8% in September 2022, this number has gradually declined, occasionally experiencing slight rebounds. By early 2024, this ratio had dropped to 4.47%. In 2024, sectors such as memecoin have performed better than the market, and the launch of BTC and ETH ETFs has also attracted institutions' interest in these assets. Therefore, most DeFi tokens are in an uncertain state, resulting in a 29% decline in DeFi dominance year-to-date, with market participants showing little interest in most DeFi tokens.

DeFi protocol NAVI TVL has exceeded 0.29 billion US dollars, reaching a new historical high.

On August 13, the top DeFi protocol in the Sui ecosystem, NAVI TVL, broke the historical record of $0.29 billion. In the past seven days, a total of $0.17 billion USDC has flowed into the protocol, and the total amount of USDC in the protocol is currently 0.15 billion. The stablecoin lending rate is 0.5%, and the USDC deposit interest rate is 25%. NAVI's native token, NAVX, has risen by 27% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.06369.