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康弘药业(002773):眼底血管病龙头 康柏西普HD和基因治疗推动第二曲线

Kanghong Pharmaceutical (002773): Combexipr HD and gene therapy, a leader in fundus vascular disease, drive the second curve

中泰證券 ·  Aug 12

Compecip RVO continued to grow after inclusion in health insurance. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of fundus vascular disease in China. Compassip's annual sales volume has reached about 2 billion and continues to grow rapidly. The inclusion of RVO in medical insurance will drive continuous growth over the next 2 years. The number of patients with fundus vascular disease is large, the treatment concept is poor, the penetration rate of drug treatment is low, and there is huge room for future growth. With the increase and iterative upgrading of products, the size of China's fundus vascular disease market and drug penetration rate are expected to approach Europe and America.

Actively promote the clinical practice of compassic HD and gene therapy to lay a good foundation for the second curve in the future. KH631 uses AAV8 as a carrier to express VEGFR-fc fragments. Early preclinical data showed continuous drug protein expression for more than 2 years, which is expected to be a one-time cure for fundus vascular disease.

The diversified layout distributes business risks. In addition to fundus vascular disease products, eye drop products are developed to enrich the product matrix, and the volume of innovative traditional Chinese medicines continues to grow, covering various fields such as tumors, nerves, metabolism, and self-immunity in the research pipeline.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. We forecast that the company is expected to achieve revenue of 46.33/51.82/54 in 2024-2026.

8.6 billion yuan, up 17.1%/11.9%/5.9% year on year. Net profit to mother is expected to be 1.245/1.423/1.522 billion yuan in 2024-2026, up 19.2%/14.3%/7.0% year on year. It is estimated that the company's revenue and profit for the next 3 years will be dominated by contributions from Compassic and traditional Chinese medicine products. The next-generation innovative ophthalmology treatment plan is expected to start clinical registration from 2025 to 2026, and production will be reported after 2027. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Revenue from commercial products falls short of expectations; risk that clinical development progress falls short of expectations; risk of competition between similar competitors and new technology treatments; there is a risk that public materials used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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