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兴通股份(603209):Q2业绩超预期 运力扩张利润可期

Xingtong Co., Ltd. (603209): Q2 performance exceeded expectations, capacity expansion profits can be expected

國金證券 ·  Aug 12

Brief performance review

On August 12, 2024, Xingtong Co., Ltd. released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1's revenue was 0.772 billion yuan, up 23.56% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.18 billion yuan, up 31.56% year on year. Among them, 2024Q2's revenue was 0.387 billion yuan, up 35.35% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.103 billion yuan, up 71.31% year on year.

Management analysis

Foreign trade capacity investment increased, driving year-on-year revenue growth. 2024H1's revenue increased 23.56% year on year, mainly due to increased investment in foreign trade vessels and a relatively rapid increase in foreign trade revenue. A total of 0.0252 million DWT stainless steel chemical tankers successfully put into international operation. 2024H1 Looking at domestic and foreign trade business, 2024H1's domestic business revenue was 0.48 billion yuan, down 1.5% year on year, and gross margin was 40.7%; overseas business revenue was 0.29 billion yuan, up 112.4% year on year, and gross margin was 29.8%. 2024H1's business volume also increased significantly. A total of 6.6593 million tons of liquid dangerous goods were transported in bulk, an increase of 20.33% over the previous year, of which the total amount of liquid chemicals transported was 5.1041 million tons, an increase of 39.46% over the previous year.

The gross margin increased significantly year-on-year, and the expense ratio declined during the period. The gross margin of the 2024Q2 company was 40.9%, up 8.8 pcts year on year, or due to the increase in the share of revenue from owned ships and the increase in foreign trade shipping prices due to the Red Sea crisis. Among them, the share of the 2024H1 company's non-chartered ship revenue fell 10.4 pcts to 3.5%. The overall cost rate of the 2024Q2 company was 7.2%, down 1.2 pct year on year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was -0.2 pct to 0.9%, the management expense ratio was 0.6 pct to 4.6%, the R&D expense ratio was 0.1%, the same as the previous year, and the financial cost ratio was 0.5 pct to 1.6%. Due to the above combined effects, the company's net interest rate increased by 5.6pct to 26.6% in 2024Q2.

Domestic and foreign trade capacity continues to expand, and the scale of profits can be expected to increase. Guided by the “1+2+1" development strategy, the company's domestic and foreign trade capacity continues to expand. Up to now, the company has controlled a total of 35 ships, totaling 0.41 million DWT, including 28 domestic trade ships, totaling 0.3075 million DWT; 7 foreign trade ships, totaling 0.1025 million DWT. In 2024-2026, the company expects a total of 0.1538 million DWT ships to be put into operation, an increase of 37.5% over the current level. Of these, 2024H2 will put into operation 2 domestic trade ships with a total of 0.0112 million DWT and 1 foreign trade ship with a total of 0.013 million DWT, and plans to put into operation 2 domestic trade ships with a total of 0.026 million DWT in 2025, and 2 foreign trade ships totaling 0.0518 million DWT, 2026 It is planned to put into operation 2 foreign trade vessels totaling 0.0518 million dwt.

Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings

Considering the 2024H1 performance, the company's 2024 net profit forecast was raised to 0.36 billion yuan (previously 0.34 billion yuan), maintaining the 2025-2026 net profit forecast of 0.44 billion yuan and 0.52 billion yuan. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Risk of market demand falling short of expectations, risk of capacity regulation policies, risk of safe operation of ships, risk of obtaining additional capacity, risk of fluctuating fuel prices, risk of lifting the ban on restricted stocks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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