On August 13th, Caixin reported that facing numerous uncertainties such as the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US elections, the three major US stock indices briefly attempted to rise, then entered a weak and powerless "lying flat" state after the opening. The Nasdaq closed up slightly, while the S&P 500 index closed up very slightly, and the Dow Jones index fell slightly. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

As of Monday's close, the Nasdaq rose 0.21% to 16780.61 points, the S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.23 points to 5344.39 points, and the Dow fell 0.36% to 39357.01 points.

(Nasdaq minute chart, source: TradingView)

Obviously, such a trading day is definitely a so-called "transition period" - a moment of silence before something big happens.

Among them, the most pressing issue is the Middle East issue, including the United States and the White House officials publicly stated that intelligence agencies believe that Iran's retaliatory actions against Israel are likely to take place as early as this week. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has urgently ordered the Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group, which was transferred from the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East, to "speed up". Another order received to rush to the Middle East for reinforcements is the US Ohio-class nuclear submarine Georgia.

(Lincoln aircraft carrier and Georgia-class submarine)

According to the plan, the Lincoln, carrying F-35 fighters, will go to the Middle East to replace the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group, which was originally scheduled to arrive at the end of August. It is not yet known how fast the US aircraft carrier can reach the Middle East.

On the other hand, there have been new developments on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield - although there were no reports of "nuclear safety issues" at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine’s cross-border attacks on the Kursk region in western Russia continue. According to Russian media reports, the acting governor of the Kursk region told Russian President Putin earlier that 28 settlements in the region are under the control of Ukrainian troops, and more than 0.121 million people have been evacuated from the border area.

(Source: X)

In addition, according to a report on CCTV news, Putin emphasized at the meeting that "the most urgent and important thing now is to immediately drive the Ukrainian army out of Russian territory".

Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Sergey reported on Monday that the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently control about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory.

Finally, the uncertainties of American policies and economy are also affecting the market. Although there were no important economic data on Monday, the consumer survey conducted by the New York Fed gave a mixed signal. The US consumers’ expectation for medium-term inflation (3 years) has fallen to its lowest level since the survey began, but the short-term (1 year) and long-term (5 year) expectations have not changed much. Compared with this week’s PPI, CPI and retail sales data, this number is not that important.

According to Nick Timiraos, the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, various investment banks currently have an expectation of around 3.0% and 3.2% for the annual rate of US July CPI and core CPI, respectively, which is relatively slower compared to previous declines.

(US CPI and core CPI annual rate, source: tradingeconomics)

Keith Lerner, Chief Market Strategist at Truist Wealth, stated that after the market sharply fell, there is often a battle between fear and greed, and people are worried about more downward space, causing some investors to continue selling on any rebounds. On the other hand, is greed and those investors waiting for a decline will wait for the market to fall and intervene.

Lerner also pointed out that in order to further enhance confidence, investors may wait for some important events to be settled - such as Powell's Jackson Hole speech next week and Nvidia's financial report the following week.

Popular stocks performance

On Monday, the overall performance of technology stocks was average, with Apple up 0.71%, Microsoft up 0.19%, Amazon down 0.08%, Meta down 0.35%, Google A down 0.84%, Tesla down 1.26 %, Nvidia up 4.08%, Intel down 1.78%, and AMD up 1.86%.

Facing this week's "China Concept Stock Earnings Season", the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.61% on Monday. Alibaba was up 1.15%, Baidu was up 0.15%, Pinduoduo was up 3.21%, JD.com was up 0.73%, NetEase was down 0.9%, NIO fell 0.53%, Li Auto fell 1.91%, and XPeng fell 3.35%.

Other news

[Gold concept stocks are generally rising]

Mainly affected by the Iran-related events, gold touched near historical highs again on Monday. Affected by this, American stock market sectors surged, among which Barrick Gold, which had positive earnings report and other benefits, rose by 9.08%, Agnico Eagle Mines rose by 3.48%, and Newmont Mining rose by 2.26%. On the other hand, the same rising crude oil did not drive the petroleum stock trend, partly because of the OPEC's downward adjustment in global demand expectations.

UBS Group maintained a buy rating for NVIDIA, emphasizing that there is no need to worry about the delay in Blackwell's shipment news.

NVIDIA closed up 4.08% on Monday at $109.02. In terms of news, UBS maintained a buy rating for the company even under the condition that the company delayed the release of the Blackwell GPU and gave it a target price of $150. The UBS team believes that the bulk delivery of Blackwell may be delayed by four to six weeks, but any delay can be compensated by purchasing H200 chips. Compared with the "almost invisible" delivery delay, data center wind cooling/liquid cooling may be more critical to NVIDIA, AMD, and other companies' revenue structures.

UBS stated that in order to maximize the available TSMC CoWoS-L capacity, NVIDIA is replacing B100 with B200A (using CoWoS-S packaging) to free up production capacity for B200/GB200. At the same time, most of NVIDIA's customers are not yet ready for liquid cooling facilities, and B200A provides an air cooling option.

KFC, a brand under Yum Brands, announced the launch of three "$5 meals," competing with McDonald's, Burger King, and Taco Bell, among other fast food companies, as McDonald's previously launched a successful "$5 deal" in the United States.

JetBlue Airways stock price set the largest drop in history on Monday's closing, down 20.66%. The company's $0.4 billion debt issuance plan to repay impending debts triggered credit rating downgrades from three major rating agencies. Both S&P and Moody's stated that operating environments (excess capacity, high labor costs) will put pressure on profitability, while Moody's also added that the new debt related to the planned financing will cause the company's debt/EBITDA to exceed 15 times by 2024.

According to insiders, Eli Lilly and Co issued $5 billion in bonds this week to finance its $3.2 billion acquisition of intestinal drug manufacturer Morphic, just before the release of U.S. economic data this week.

In 2023, the company's overall sales volume of 18,000 kiloliters, +28.10% year-on-year, significant growth. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

With oil drilling and prices in flux, the aviation/airlines industry remains a relevant and important sector in the economy. Investors looking to stay bullish may consider the aviation/airlines industry, buying Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, and Newmont Mining stocks rather than crude oil products.

Moody's maintains a positive rating for Taiwan Semiconductor, with a positive outlook for 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, the semiconductor industry's wafer production equipment market may see explosive growth in the next few years, with possible beneficiaries including ASML, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron.