The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 on Monday, the first downward revision since it made predictions for 2024 in July 2023.

According to the latest monthly report, OPEC predicts that oil demand will grow by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024, reaching 0.1043 billion barrels per day, a decrease of 0.135 million barrels per day compared to its forecast in July.

OPEC said this year's downward revision reflects consumption data for the first and second quarters and a "weaker-than-expected outlook for petroleum demand growth in China in 2024."

However, its forecast is still higher than the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, and higher than the expectations of many major trading firms and Wall Street banks.

OPEC's forecast is more than twice that of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast and at the high end of Saudi Aramco's expectations. The IEA expects oil demand to grow by 0.97 million barrels per day this year, but is expected to update its data this week.

OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for next year (2025) from 1.85 million barrels per day to 1.78 million barrels per day.

OPEC+--including OPEC and its allies such as Russia--has implemented a series of production cuts since the end of 2022 to support the market, most of which will continue until the end of 2025.

On August 1st, OPEC+ confirmed plans to gradually lift the latest round of cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from October, with the provision to pause or reverse the cuts if necessary.

An OPEC+ insider said last week that the group has another month to decide whether to release oil from October and will study oil market data in the coming weeks.

Oil prices maintained their upward trend.

Last week, crude oil prices rebounded, ending four consecutive weeks of decline, supported by a rebound from a major sale triggered by concerns about the U.S. economic downturn.

As of publication, WTI crude oil futures rose 1.16% to $77.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.19% to $80.61 per barrel.

Last week's data is believed to help alleviate concerns, but investors are expected to remain sensitive to any cracks in consumption-driven growth in the market.

Analysts say the possibility of a larger-scale conflict in the Middle East that could threaten the region's oil supply is still a supporting factor. Iran has vowed to retaliate for the July 31 assassination by Israel of a senior Hamas official in Tehran.

However, David Morrison, senior market analyst at TradeStation, said that fundamentally, the prospects for global demand growth continue to be the biggest factor affecting oil prices.

In a report on Monday, he said, "Although the prospect of a Fed rate cut by the end of the year provides support for oil prices, recent U.S. data is unclear. Oil prices should have rebounded earlier, but may need to fall further to trigger a turnaround in the overall trend."