周一，被视为欧洲天然气期货基准的荷兰近月期货合约盘中涨超2%，Concerns about Russia's supply cuts are driving up European gas prices. Driven by massive demand for gas storage, Europe may increase imports of US natural gas, and US gas suppliers are expected to make huge profits. According to reports, during the European energy crisis two years ago, each LNG ship sailing to Europe could earn more than 0.1 billion US dollars in profit.
The European gas market is in a state of panic, will the US make huge profits?
Last Wednesday evening, European gas prices rose sharply due to Ukraine's attack on important Russian gas transfer stations, which raised concerns about supply cuts.
On Monday, Dutch futures contracts in recent months, which are regarded as the benchmark for European gas futures, rose more than 2% intraday to 42 euros/megawatt-hour, the highest level since December last year. As of press time, it was 41.39 Euro/MWH.
In the critical gas storage phase before the onset of winter, a sharp rise in natural gas prices may cause European countries to switch to the US to buy more liquefied natural gas (LNG), thus bringing huge profits to US gas suppliers.
According to media compilation and S&P global commodity tracking data, Europe's LNG imports fell sharply in July, and demand for LNG in Asia began to weaken this month, compounding the increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. S&P said that this “changed the profitability of LNG transportation routes” and would “provide the possibility for more US goods to move to Europe.”
Tom Roberts, CEO of Xterna Group, said:
“The focus now seems to be on geopolitics, yet gas consumption in these gas-intensive countries is at a record high.”
“The upcoming winter will be the elephant in the room.”
This image of what is likely to happen is the same as it was two years ago.
Wall Street saw this before. In August 2022, when Russia's LNG supply was drastically reduced, European gas prices soared. According to information from Platts Energy at the time, at the TTF center in Europe, the price of natural gas was close to 3,600 US dollars per 1,000 cubic meters, while the spot price of natural gas in northwestern Europe had already risen to a record level.
At the same time, Europe is still buying natural gas from the US regardless of the cost. Even when the gas price difference in the European and American markets reached a record 10 times, the capacity utilization rate of US liquefied natural gas plants has remained at a high level since late June.
Under these circumstances, US traders with long-term capacity contracts can earn an average profit of 2,100 US dollars per 1,000 cubic meters by selling LNG directly at export terminals. According to data disclosed by the US Business Insider Network, US companies can earn more than 0.1 billion US dollars in profits for each LNG ship bound for Europe.