American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.5% to hit US$1.6b. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings also reported a statutory profit of US$0.15, which was an impressive 53% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings' nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$6.23b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 2,310% to US$0.20. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.20 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$8.06, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$10.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.