伴生矿项目进入兑现期，爬坡结束后利润释放或加速。根据公司半年报，1H24 年包头“选化一体”项目贡献归母净利润5915 万元，其中2Q24 生产萤石精粉约12.78 万吨、无水氟化氢2.88 万吨，销售无水氟化氢约2.5 万吨、萤石精粉4.25 万吨(不含金鄂博氟化工自用部分)，销售节奏环比表现平稳。根据百川盈孚数据，二季度氢氟酸均价环比提升10%至10750 元/吨，公司收入端增速显著，但或因产线尚处爬坡阶段，1H24 年氢氟酸业务毛利率仅0.39%。氢氟酸作为氟化工产业中间体，价格变化与萤石逐渐趋同，下半年亦存涨价预期，公司伴生矿法成本仍有优化空间，看好“选化一体化”项目利润逐步兑现。Key points of investment:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report, and the results were basically in line with expectations. In 1H24, the company achieved operating income of 1.119 billion yuan (yoy +100%), net profit of 0.168 billion yuan (yoy +33%), and net profit of 0.169 billion yuan (yoy +34%) after deduction. The performance was basically in line with expectations. Among them, in 2Q24, the company achieved operating income of 0.671 billion yuan (yoy +72%, QoQ +50%) and net profit to mother 0.107 billion yuan (yoy +17%, QoQ +77%). The main reason for the month-on-month increase in net profit due to the month-on-month increase in net profit to the mother in 2Q24 was catalyzed by the downstream peak season in the second quarter, and the volume and price of fluorite increased month-on-month.
The impact of the special rectification was evident. The volume price of a single mine decreased and increased in the first half of the year, and the volume price may rise sharply in the second half of the year. Affected by the special measures for production safety in fluorite mines since March of this year, supply-side shocks to the industry have gradually become apparent, and prices have been reduced and rising in volume. In 1H24, the company's fluorite concentrate production was about 0.1831 million tons and sales volume was about 0.1593 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0221 million tons and 35,400 tons, respectively. Among them, production and sales during the Q2 peak season were 0.1271 million tons and 1053 million tons, respectively. There was a significant increase from month to month but also declined year on year. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average price of 97 fluorite wet powder in China increased 18%/10% month-on-month to 3,664 yuan/ton in 2Q24, and the month-on-month increase in volume and price led to a month-on-month increase in the company's second-quarter results. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, on the one hand, the company obtained an outer Mongolia fluorite mining license through a transfer in July, and the Changshan Jinshiyanqian fluorite mine also resumed production on August 8, and production and sales of the single fluorite mine business are expected to increase; on the other hand, although the current fluorite price has declined from the June high, the average price for the third quarter is still high, and with the arrival of the peak season in October, compounded by the decline in winter construction in the north. The price of fluorite is likely to rise further, and the company's single mine stock price is expected to rise sharply in the second half of the year. Furthermore, as the special rectification work nears its end, some companies that do not meet the standards will be shut down and withdrawn. The medium- to long-term industry supply contraction is more certain, and I am optimistic that the fluorite price center will continue to rise.
The associated mining project enters the cash out period, and profits are released or accelerated after the climb is over. According to the company's semi-annual report, the Baotou “Selection and Integration” project contributed 59.15 million yuan in net profit in 1H24, of which 2Q24 produced about 0.1278 million tons of fluorite powder and 0.0288 million tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, sold about 0.025 million tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and 0.0425 million tons of fluorite powder (excluding the self-use portion of Jin'e Fluorine Chemical). The sales pace was stable from month to month. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average price of hydrofluoric acid increased 10% month-on-month to 10,750 yuan/ton in the second quarter. The company's revenue growth rate was significant, but the gross margin of the hydrofluoric acid business in 1H24 was only 0.39%, probably because the production line was still climbing. As an intermediate in the fluorine chemical industry, the price changes of hydrofluoric acid gradually converge with fluorite, and price increases are expected in the second half of the year. There is still room for optimization of the company's associated mining costs, and it is optimistic that the profits of the “selection and integration” project will gradually be realized.
Investment analysis: Due to increasingly stringent domestic production safety requirements, fluorite prices are expected to continue to rise. Through technological transformation, the company has entered the field of associated fluorite resources and lithium extraction from lithium mica fine mud, invested in the development of Mongolian fluorite resources, further promoted the “resource+technology” two-pronged strategy, and at the same time expanded the field of fluorine chemicals downstream to open up new upstream and downstream growth space. Due to the decline in the company's single mine sales, the hydrofluoric acid production line has not reached an ideal state. We lowered the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.51, 0.772, and 0.971 billion yuan (previous values were 0.635, 0.855, and 1.026 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS was 0.84, 1.28, and 1.61 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 30X, 20X, and 16X. We are still optimistic about the rise in fluorite prices. The company's new projects gradually capitalize on profits and maintain growth Hold a rating.
Risk warning: 1. Fluorite prices continue to fall; 2. Environmental protection enforcement is not in place, and the resumption of production has exceeded expectations; 3. Production and sales of downstream air conditioners, automobiles, etc. continue to decline; 4. The progress of new projects has fallen short of expectations.
