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仙乐健康(300791):符合预期 期待弹性

Xianle Health (300791): Meeting expectations and flexibility

國聯證券 ·  Aug 12

Key points of investment

2024H1 Xianle Health achieved revenue of 1.99 billion yuan, or 28.85% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 0.154 billion yuan to mother, or 52.66% year-on-year. In 2024Q2, the company achieved revenue of 1.039 billion yuan, or 23.29% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.091 billion yuan, or 27.38% year-on-year.

The domestic market showed resilience, and the American market continued to grow rapidly

By region, China, America, and Europe achieved revenue of 0.832, 0.729, and 0.295 billion yuan respectively, compared with 4.22%, 65.42%, and 13.78% of revenue, respectively. The American market had a low base+gradual release of new orders throughout the year, and revenue continued to grow in high double digits, with sufficient potential; the domestic market slowed down due to the high base growth rate, but benefiting from the strategy of large customers, the management side was resilient and still achieved small single-digit growth; the European market performance was stable, and the new market focused on gaps. Coverage+new order Pioneering and operating in line with expectations. By product, 2024H1 softgels, tablets, powders, gummies, drinks, and hard capsules achieved revenue of 8.89, 1.42, 1.42, 0.486, 0.14, 0.098 billion yuan, compared with 26.80%, -17.50%, 13.29%, 60.55%, -14.36%, and 70.16%. Driven by new orders at home and abroad, the high-margin gummy formulation performed brilliantly.

Product structure upgrade, profit level increase

Benefiting from the increase in the utilization rate of production capacity in the US, the increase in the share of revenue from gummies with high gross margin, and the release of procurement dividends due to the combined scale effect, 2024Q2's gross margin was +2.41 pct to 33.35% year over year. Due to team upgrades and increased marketing promotion, 2024Q2's sales expenses ratio and management expense ratio were +0.61 and 0.40pct year-on-year to 7.97% and 10.17%. The gross sales margin of the 2024Q2 company was +1.80pct to 25.38% year on year, and the profit level was further improved. The company's net margin was +0.65pct to 7.90% year over year.

Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings

We expect the company's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to be 4.339/4.943/5.585 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.13%/13.91%/12.99%, and 2024-2026 net profit forecasts of 0.403/0.502/0.587 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.24%/24.65%/17.06%, and EPS of 1.71/2.13/2.49 yuan/share, respectively. In view of the stability of high-value customers, overseas market expansion can be expected, and the “buy” rating is maintained.

Risk warning: food safety risk, risk of market expansion falling short of expectations, risk of rising raw material prices

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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