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US stocks may face a major test this week!
The United States will release its July PPI on August 13, its July CPI on August 14, and the "terrifying data" of July retail sales on August 15. Secondly, as the US election date approaches, the Federal Reserve will be at the center of the storm again. Third, Japan will release its GDP for the second quarter, and the Japanese yen carry trade will inevitably cause waves again.
The 'hawkish' Fed is still warning of the risk of inflation and continuing to maintain a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts.
On Saturday (August 10) local time, Federal Reserve Board Member Michelle Bowman said she still sees upward risks in inflation and sustained strong labor market. Media analysis suggests that this FOMC voting member is likely to support a smaller rate cut at the September meeting, or may even be prepared to not support the central bank's easing of lending rates. She said, "While the progress on inflation in May and June is encouraging, the inflation rate is still well above the Committee's 2% target, which is concerning. When considering adjustments to our current policy stance, I will continue to proceed cautiously."
Harris vows not to interfere with the Federal Reserve
In stark contrast to Trump's position that "the President should have some say over the Federal Reserve," Democratic presidential candidate Harris recently emphasized her respect for the independence of the Federal Reserve, saying, "If elected president, I will never interfere with the Federal Reserve's decisions." Harris said she was "strongly" opposed to the idea that "the President should have some say over interest rates and monetary policy," and believed that the central bank was an "independent entity." Recent polls have shown that Harris has erased Trump's lead in the summer for the most part, and the two candidates are now entering a three-month sprint until election day.
US young voters prefer Harris to handle economic issues, with a greater degree of support than Trump
A new survey by CNBC and Generation Lab shows that young Americans don't seem to think Harris should be held responsible for the deterioration of the US economy under the Biden administration. After Biden's withdrawal from the race in July, 69 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 34 believe that the economy under President Biden is deteriorating. But they also believe that Harris, the actual Democratic candidate, is the most capable candidate to improve the economy, rather than the Republican candidate and former President Trump.
Have US stocks' adjustment ended? Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Bank of America are all cautious
Goldman Sachs believes that the current US stock market has bottomed out and is expected to continue on an overall upward trend in the future, despite some fluctuations. JPMorgan is more cautious, saying that the worst period for US stocks may be over, but there will be more downside risks from the uncertainty factors such as the September interest rate decision, seasonal weakness, negative sentiment, etc. Bank of America's well-known analyst Michael Hartnett believes that, currently, the US stock market has not fallen below key technical levels, and investors still have more preference for the stock market. However, AI stocks in the second half of the year will be worrying.
Most pessimistic since the 2010s! Hedge funds are 'extremely bearish' on commodities.
Hedge fund managers' bearishness toward commodities has reached its highest level in 13 years amid worries that the economy may slow further. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that as of last Tuesday, fund managers had accumulated nearly 0.153 million net short positions in futures and options on 20 commodity markets, reaching the highest level since 2011 with recorded data, fearing the worst.
Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.
The three major indexes in the US rose slightly, wiping out most of last week's decline
On Friday, the three major US stock indexes collectively rose, ending the most volatile week since the beginning of the year.$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$Up 0.13% to 39,497.54;$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Up 0.47% to 5,344.16;$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$Up 0.51% to 16,745.30.
The Dow fell 0.6% last week, the S&P fell 0.04%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.18%. Other S&P 500 component stocks besides the so-called "Magnificent Seven" are expected to achieve their first profit growth since the fourth quarter of 2022. Data shows that earnings of S&P 500 component stocks (excluding the Magnificent Seven) are expected to increase by 7.4% in the second quarter from the same period last year, after five consecutive quarters of decline. Although more than 80% of component companies have already announced their performance, major indicators of US consumption health have not yet been released.
Profit growth in the U.S. stock market has now expanded beyond the "seven giants."
According to the latest disclosure from Jinglin Asset Management, it significantly increased its holding of commodities during the second quarter and established new positions.$Home Depot (HD.US)$,$Walmart (WMT.US)$and $Target (TGT.US)$
Jinglin's Q2 US stock holdings: significantly increased shareholding in PDD Holdings and Taiwan Semiconductor, and newly opened positions in Apple.
Click to see: CSI Commodity Equity Index $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ In addition, it also reduced META and hold positions. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$By the middle of 2024, Jinglin's holding positions in pdd holdings have accounted for nearly one-fifth of Jinglin's total assets in the US stock market. In the second quarter, the company bought more shares, with an increase rate as high as 43% compared to the previous quarter. The top six stocks calculated by holding market value account for as much as 60% of the investment portfolio, respectively: pdd holdings (18.24%), other (15.44%), taiwan semiconductor (12.45%), other (10.67%), other (9.62%), and asia vets group (5.72%). $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Apple's goal for iPhone 16 is to maintain sales stability until next year when more innovative models will be launched. Apple Intelligence will be a marketing focus, which is a new suite of artificial intelligence features that can run on all iPhone 16 models, but also available for iPhone 15 Pro series. There will be a new camera control button on the right side of the phone, at least on the iPhone 16 Pro series.$NetEase (NTES.US)$US senators are calling for an investigation into whether Elon Musk is using Tesla's resources to benefit other companies he owns and operates. This Democratic senator Warren believes that transferring chips may be a "misuse of company resources," and that creating xAI itself is a "inevitable conflict of interest" for Musk.$Full Truck Alliance (YMM.US)$According to insiders, the US network equipment manufacturer is expected to lay off thousands more in the second round of layoffs this year, shifting its focus to high-growth areas such as cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. The number of people affected by the layoffs may be equivalent to or slightly higher than the 4,000 layoffs by Cisco in February and may be announced as early as next Wednesday when the company announces its Q4 results.
Gorman: iPhone 16 is a transitional model, just aiming to maintain stable sales.
Technology journalist Goldman said that the target of iPhone 16 is to maintain sales stability until next year when more innovative models will be launched. Apple Intelligence will be a marketing focus, which is a new suite of artificial intelligence features that can run on all iPhone 16 models, but also available for iPhone 15 Pro series. There will be a new camera control button on the right side of the phone, at least on the iPhone 16 Pro series. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ US senators are calling for an investigation into whether Elon Musk is using Tesla's resources to benefit other companies he owns and operates. This Democratic senator Warren believes that transferring chips may be a "misuse of company resources," and that creating xAI itself is a "inevitable conflict of interest" for Musk.
From August 6 to August 9, Northbound capital net purchased HKD 2.278 billion of Hong Kong stocks. Tencent was bought for HKD 1.103 billion, HKD 0.322 billion and HKD 0.102 billion, respectively, while others sold HKD 0.497 billion, HKD 0.125 billion and HKD 96.6 million, respectively. Statistically, northbound capital has been buying Tencent continuously for 12 days, totalling HKD 9.422 billion.
The weather is good today The weather is good today. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The car market's price war has temporarily subsided. Multiple automakers have reduced discounts and production to stabilize the pricing system.
US network equipment manufacturer Cisco is reportedly set to lay off thousands of employees. In the second round of layoffs this year, the company will focus on high-growth fields such as cybersecurity and AI. The number of people affected by the layoff may be similar or slightly higher than the 4,000 laid off by Cisco in February and could be announced as early as next Wednesday when the company's Q4 earnings are released. The company's main business has been struggling to cope with weak demand and supply chain constraints. It has been trying to incorporate AI products into its offerings and reiterated its goal of reaching $1 billion in AI product orders by 2025 in May. In June this year, the company launched a $1 billion fund to invest in AI startups such as Cohere, Mistral AI, and Scale AI, saying it had already conducted 20 acquisitions and investments focused on AI in recent years.
In addition, it also reduced META and hold positions. $Cisco (CSCO.US)$From August 6 to August 9, Northbound capital net purchased HKD 2.278 billion of Hong Kong stocks. Tencent was bought for HKD 1.103 billion, HKD 0.322 billion and HKD 0.102 billion, respectively, while others sold HKD 0.497 billion, HKD 0.125 billion and HKD 96.6 million, respectively. Statistically, northbound capital has been buying Tencent continuously for 12 days, totalling HKD 9.422 billion.
If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.
BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.
Northbound funds have been net buying Tencent for 12 consecutive days, and added more than 1.1 billion Hong Kong dollars last Friday.
On August 9th (last Friday), southbound funds net purchased 2.278 billion Hong Kong dollars of Hong Kong stocks.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Received net purchases of 1.103 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.322 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.102 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively;
$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$and$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Received net sales of 0.497 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.125 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 96.6 million Hong Kong dollars, respectively.
The car market's price war has temporarily subsided. Multiple automakers have reduced discounts and production to stabilize the pricing system.
Has the price war in the car market temporarily cooled down? Many car companies have reduced their discount rates and restrained production to stabilize the price system.
From 'Cowboy' to the dairy industry giant, Niugen Sheng entered the cowshed at the age of 20 and worked at a cattle farm. Five years later, he entered Yili and started as a bottle washer. He was later promoted to workshop director. Starting in 1992, he served as the vice president of operation at Yili. In 1999, he left and created Mengniu.$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$According to sources,$NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$The right to purchase a car will soon have a "ten-thousand-yuan car purchase subsidy" rollback on August 11th. As always, there have been relatively few price fluctuations.$Li Auto (LI.US)$Recently, the discount range has also been reduced. Since July, many car brands have stopped lowering prices or reduced their discount efforts. From the information provided by sales personnel of various brands, auto companies are facing pressure to reduce inventory in the second half of the year, and the fastest way to do so is to reduce production and stabilize the system.
The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Keywords: 1-year inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve of New York in the US; Tokyo Stock Exchange closed; Ke Holdings financial report
On Monday, the economic data showed that the 1-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed will be unveiled. In the market, the Japanese stock market will be closed for 'Mountain Day'.
In the market, the Japanese stock market will be closed due to 'Mountain Day'.
In terms of financial reports, $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$ it will be released before the US stock market opens.
Futubull Morning News:
Behind every stock is a company. Let's see what they are doing.
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Editor/Emily