The quarterly results for Amplitude, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMPL) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenue hit US$73m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.19 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Amplitude are now predicting revenues of US$295.7m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.67. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$294.0m and losses of US$0.68 per share in 2024.
The analysts trimmed their valuations, with the average price target falling 7.1% to US$9.75, with the ongoing losses seemingly weighing on sentiment, despite no real changes to the earnings forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Amplitude, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$14.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Amplitude's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last three years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Amplitude is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Amplitude analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Amplitude that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.