PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTCT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.8% to US$31.29 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 23% toUS$1.29 per share. Revenues of US$187m did beat expectations by 3.1%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering PTC Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$740.8m revenue in 2024, which would reflect an uncomfortable 18% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 17% from last year to US$5.18. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$743.4m and US$5.22 per share in losses.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$38.50, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PTC Therapeutics at US$64.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$26.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 32% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 25% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 23% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that PTC Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for PTC Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with PTC Therapeutics (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.