The company released its 2024 semi-annual report, and achieved operating income of 81.93 billion yuan in the first half of the year, +17.8% year-on-year; realized net profit to mother of 41.7 billion yuan, +15.9% year-on-year. Looking at the second quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 36.16 billion yuan (+17.3%) and realized net profit of 17.63 billion yuan (+16.1%) to mother.
Flying took the initiative to control speed, and Maotai contributed to growth in 1935. 2024H1, the company sold Maotai liquor 68.57 billion (yoy +17.8%), of which 24Q2 Maotai achieved revenue of 28.86 billion yuan (yoy +12.9%). The growth rate declined from Q1. It is expected mainly due to fluctuating prices in Q2 and the company's active volume control. In 24H1, the company's wine series achieved revenue of 13.15 billion yuan (yoy +30.5%), and Q2 achieved revenue of 7.21 billion yuan (yoy +42.5%), which is expected to benefit from Maotai's 1935 sales maintained a high year-on-year increase. On the channel side, 24H1 direct sales achieved revenue of 33.73 billion yuan (yoy +7.3%), of which iMaotai achieved revenue of 10.25 billion yuan (yoy +9.8%). The month-on-month slowdown in direct sales growth is expected mainly due to the company's tightening of quotas for corporate group purchases of 1,499 yuan. The 24H1 wholesale channel achieved revenue of 47.99 billion (yoy +26.5%) and has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate since the beginning of the year. At the end of 24H1, the company's contract debt was 9.99 billion, +36.3% year-on-year, +4.9% month-on-month, with sufficient orders in hand.
Gross profit margin is stable, and taxes and fees fluctuate slightly. 24H1, the company's gross margin was 91.8% (yoy-0.0pct), sales/management expense ratios were 3.2% (yoy+0.6pct)/4.7% (yoy-0.8pct), sales tax and surcharges accounted for 16.5% of revenue (yoy+1.2pct), and net sales margin was 52.7% (yoy-1.0pct).
The wholesale price of Flying Sky rebounded, and the company issued a dividend promise. Recent price fluctuations in Flying Sky have attracted attention. Maotai Distillery has steadily promoted a steady recovery in price prices through measures such as tightening the 1,499 yuan corporate group purchase quota, suspending distribution of Xunfeng Maotai liquor for a short period of time, slowing down delivery progress, and canceling unpacking orders. According to today's wine prices, the bulk and original batch prices of Feitian rose to 2,430 and 2,705 yuan respectively on August 7, and the risk of price fluctuations came to an end for the time being. On the other hand, the company's dividend rate (2024/8/8, 2023) reached 3.5%; the company issued the “Notice on the 2024-2026 Cash Dividend Return Plan”, which will guarantee two annual dividends in 2024-2026, and the total dividends account for no less than 75% of net profit to mother, reflecting the company's emphasis on improving shareholder returns and increasing investment safety margins.
The company actively controlled price increases and slightly lowered revenue from 24-26. EPS is predicted to be 68.41, 78.66, and 89.43 yuan in 2024-2026 (the original forecast was 70.11, 80.54, 91.59 yuan for 24-26). The FCFF valuation method was maintained, and the company's equity value was 2499.7 billion yuan, and the target price was 1989.89 yuan, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: Consumption recovery fell short of expectations, flying prices fell sharply, 1935 growth fell short of expectations, reduced brand power, and risk of environmental deterioration.