2024H1's net profit increased by 32.54% year on year, reaching a record high for the same period. The “buy” rating company 2024H1 achieved revenue of 1.119 billion yuan, an increase of 100.20% year on year; achieved net profit of 0.168 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 32.54% year on year. The company's 2024H1 performance reached a record high for the same period. However, due to the impact of the shutdown and rectification of its mines (production has been resumed) and the decline in the price of lithium mica, etc., the company's performance fell slightly short of expectations. The company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 4.70, 7.42, and 9.13 (previous values were 7.00, 9.50, 11.45) billion yuan, and EPS was 0.78, 1.22, and 1.51 (previous values were 1.16, 1.56, and 1.89) yuan, respectively. We are still optimistic about the current stock price of PE at 32.7, 20.9, and 16.9 times respectively. The continuation of the sharp rise in prices and the undervaluation of resource values maintain the “buy” rating.
The company's various projects have been released steadily, and the short-term upward trend did not change its long-term upward trend. The operating situation of the company's projects during the reporting period: (1) Single fluorite ore: production of about 0.1831 million tons of fluorite concentrate, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0221 million tons; sales volume was 0.1593 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0354 million tons; according to our estimates, the average price was 2,856 yuan/ton (excluding tax, same below), +9.41% year over year. (2) Baotou “Selective Integrated” Project: Jin'e Fluorine Chemical produces 0.0526 million tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, with sales volume of about 0.049 million tons. 2023H1 Jin'e Fluorine Chemical has not yet been put into production. Baogang Jinshi's three beneficiation production lines produced a total of 0.2528 million tons of fluorite powder, and Jinebo sold 0.0839 million tons. (3) Jiangxi Jinling Project: Produces 0.0176 million tons of lepidomite concentrate, sells 0.0074 million tons of lepidomite concentrate, and stocks 0.0391 million tons of lithium mica concentrate at the end of the period. Overall, the company's revenue growth mainly comes from the sales revenue of Jinebo anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and the total trade revenue from overseas sales of Baogang Jinshi Fluorite powder totaling 0.639 billion yuan (2023H1 is 9.1068 million yuan); the increase in net profit mainly comes from the Baotou “Selective Integration” project. Jin'e Bofluorine Chemical and Baogang Jinshi achieved a total net profit of 59.1499 million yuan (2023H1 is 2.0344 million yuan). However, revenue from self-produced fluorite concentrates declined slightly due to sales volume, and profits from lepidomite products declined further year-on-year due to the downturn in the boom. We believe that there is a high degree of certainty that the company's output will continue to be released in various projects, and that the market will continue to improve, and that changes in the short-term pace will not change its long-term upward trend.
Continued repurchases demonstrate confidence and strengthen dividend returns to shareholders
The company plans to buy back 50-100 million yuan of shares to be used as a shareholding plan or equity incentive for the company's employees. Additionally, the company plans to pay an interim dividend after the disclosure of the report for the third quarter of 2024.
Risk warning: Project progress fell short of expectations, product prices fell sharply, and downstream demand fell short of expectations.