Verve Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VERV) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Revenues of US$6.7m beat estimates by a substantial 147% margin. Unfortunately, Verve Therapeutics also reported a statutory loss of US$0.59 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Verve Therapeutics after the latest results.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from nine analysts covering Verve Therapeutics is for revenues of US$12.9m in 2024. This implies a sizeable 37% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$2.69 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$12.5m and US$2.72 per share in losses.
The consensus price target fell 17% to US$25.78as the analysts signal that ongoing losses are likely to weigh on the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Verve Therapeutics at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 61% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 121% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 23% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Verve Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Verve Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Verve Therapeutics (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
