Emerging market outlook: can the mood change with the earnings reports of main players on the Growth Market 250 index, which has experienced a historic crash?

Fisco Japan · Aug 10 13:27

■2011年3月14日以来の歴史的な暴落

今週の新興市場は大幅下落。同時期の騰落率は、日経平均が－2.46％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は－3.26％、グロース市場250指数は－2.52％。プライム市場同様、週初8月5日のグロース市場も歴史的な暴落となり、上昇した銘柄はクラウドワークス＜3900＞とJDR（日本型預託証券）のYCP＜9257＞のみ。2日の急落で信用取引の追証が発生した投資家が換金売りを加速させたことなども影響し、東証グロース市場250指数先物はサーキットブレーカーが午前と午後に合計2回発動。グロース市場250指数の下落率は15.83％となり、旧マザーズ指数まで遡ると2011年3月14日の17.17％以来の歴史的な暴落となった。ただ、翌6日以降は、売られ過ぎ感を背景に買いが進みグロース市場指数、グロース市場250指数ともに4日続伸。週初の暴落を週末にかけて戻す展開となった。

時価総額上位銘柄では、カバー＜5253＞は第1四半期業績が市場の期待に届かなかったことなどから売られた。また、GMOフィナンシャルゲート＜4051＞も業績がネガティブ視されて下落。一方、フリー＜4478＞、JTOWER＜4485＞、トライト＜9164＞、ispace＜9348＞は5日の暴落時に上場来安値、ティーケーピー＜3479＞、BASE＜4477＞、GENDA＜9166＞は年初来安値をそれぞれ更新したが、週末にかけてじりじりと値を戻した。その他の銘柄では、yutori＜5892＞がM&Aが材料視されて買われたほか、業績発表で博展＜2173＞、クラウドワークス、日本情報クリエイト＜4054＞が上昇。

■主力企業の決算発表が本格化

来週の新興市場は、主力企業の決算発表が本格化を迎えるなか、主要指数は戻り一服となりそうだ。週足ベースでは長い下影（下ヒゲ）を残したが、日足ベースでは2日から5日に空けたマドを埋め切れていない。日経平均とほぼ同じ形状で、反発の弱さが意識されつつある。早い段階でマドを埋めて、反発を強めたいところだが、売買代金が1000億円を下回るなど参加者は限定的で地合いは悪いまま。米国市場や為替市場は落ち着きを取り戻しつつあるが、ダメージを負った投資家が多いことから、二番底を探る動きには警戒したいところだ。

個別銘柄では、9日の引け後に決算を発表したインテグラル＜5842＞、ウェルスナビ＜7342＞、トライト、スカイマーク＜9204＞、ispaceに関心が向かおう。為替に関連した特別利益を計上したispaceはポジティブな反応が出そうだが、通期業績見通しの下方修正を発表したトライトは売り圧力が強まりそうだ。また、来週は、13日にアドベンチャー＜6030＞、14日にジーエヌアイグループ＜2160＞、フリー、JTOWER、弁護士ドットコム＜6027＞、ライフネット生命保険＜7157＞など時価総額が大きい主力処が決算を発表する。先行き不透明感から短期資金中心の売買となっているなか、決算発表の主力処がしっかりとした値動きを示せれば、グロース市場の悪いムードも多少は払拭されよう。

Historical crash since March 14, 2011.

Emerging markets fell sharply this week. During the same period, the Nikkei Average fell by 2.46%, while the Growth Market Index fell by 3.26% and the Growth Market 250 Index fell by 2.52%. Like the Prime Market, the Growth Market also experienced a historic crash at the beginning of the week on August 5th, with only two stocks rising - Cloud Works <3900> and YCP <9257>, a JDR (Japanese-type depositary receipt). The acceleration of sell-offs by investors who triggered margin calls due to the sharp drop on the 2nd also had an impact, and the Tokyo Growth Market 250 Index futures were circuit breakers triggered twice in total both in the morning and afternoon. The decline rate of the Growth Market 250 Index was 15.83%, making it a historic crash since the Old Mothers Index of 17.17% on March 14, 2011. However, from the 6th onwards, with a backdrop of oversold sentiment, purchases continued, and both the Growth Market Index and the Growth Market 250 Index rose for four consecutive days. It became a trend to recover from the early-week crash to the weekend.

In the case of market capitalization top stocks, KABU <5253> was sold due to the fact that the first quarter earnings did not meet market expectations. Also, GMO Financial Gate <4051> fell as its performance was viewed negatively. On the other hand, FREE <4478>, J TOWER <4485>, TRITE <9164>, and ispace <9348> hit their all-time low on the day of the crash, while TKP <3479>, BASE <4477>, and GENDA <9166> updated their annual lows, but the prices edged back up slowly towards the end of the week. Among other stocks, yutori <5892> was bought on the news of M&A deals and performances such as promotion exhibition <2173>, Cloud Works, and Japanese Information Create <4054> were on the rise.

The earnings announcements of major companies are becoming more and more popular.

As major companies' earnings announcements enter full swing, major indexes are likely to see a pause. It left a long lower shadow on a weekly basis, but it has not filled the gap between the second and fifth days on a daily basis. Its shape is almost the same as the Nikkei Average, and its weak rebound is becoming more conscious. It would be desirable to fill the gap early and strengthen the rebound, but the trading volume is less than 100 billion yen, and the participants are limited, and the market conditions are poor. Although the US market and the foreign exchange market are regaining their composure, caution is needed for moves to seek the second bottom, given that many investors have suffered damage.

After the close on the 9th, attention will be focused on Integral <5842>, Wealthnavi <7342>, Triit, Skymark <9204>, and ispace, which announced their earnings. Ispace, which recorded special profits related to exchange rates, is likely to see a positive reaction, but Triit, which announced a downward revision of its full-year earnings forecast, is expected to face stronger selling pressure. In addition, next week, major companies with large market capitalization, such as Adventure <6030> on the 13th, GNI Group <2160>, FREE, JTOWER, Lawyer.com <6027>, and Life Net Life Insurance <7157> will announce their earnings. If the major companies' earnings announcements can demonstrate a stable price movement amid uncertain prospects of short-term funds and sell-offs, it may help to dispel some of the negative sentiment in the growth market.

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新興市場見通し：グロース市場250指数は歴史的な暴落、主力処の決算発表でムード変えられるか

Emerging market outlook: can the mood change with the earnings reports of main players on the Growth Market 250 index, which has experienced a historic crash?

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