CoreCivic, Inc.'s (NYSE:CXW) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.3x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for CoreCivic as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.
How Is CoreCivic's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as CoreCivic's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 41% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 26% during the coming year according to the five analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we find it concerning that CoreCivic is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of CoreCivic's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It is also worth noting that we have found 5 warning signs for CoreCivic (2 can't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.
You might be able to find a better investment than CoreCivic. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.