Edgewell Personal Care Company (NYSE:EPC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.4% to US$37.52 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$648m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.98 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Edgewell Personal Care is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Edgewell Personal Care's seven analysts is for revenues of US$2.32b in 2025. This reflects an okay 2.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 34% to US$3.25. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.19 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$44.50, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Edgewell Personal Care, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$53.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Edgewell Personal Care shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Edgewell Personal Care's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 2.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Edgewell Personal Care.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Edgewell Personal Care's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Edgewell Personal Care going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Edgewell Personal Care (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.
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