Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said that the turbulence in global financial markets has not reached a level that is serious enough to cause concerns about an economic hard landing. Data shows that even though it has fallen by about 6% from its historical high point in mid-July, the index is still above its 200-day moving average of about 5050 points and has not fallen by more than 4%. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ The index has fallen by about 6% from its historical high point in mid-July but it is still above its 200-day moving average of about 5050 points. $U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$The index has not fallen by more than 4%.

"The level of technology that can allow Wall Street to shift its expectations from a soft landing to a hard landing has not yet been broken", said Michael Hartnett. "Investors' feedback is 'anxious', but the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut means that investors' preference for stocks (not bonds) has not ended due to market turmoil."

In the past month, global markets have been turbulent due to investors' concerns that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is too slow to avoid an economic recession in time. However, the S&P 500 index rebounded after the initial jobless claims on Thursday were lower than expected. The index has only accumulated a 0.5% decline this week.

Michael Hartnett stated that the next technical level to watch would be the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 index and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that follow large-cap tech stocks. He has a more neutral attitude towards the stock market this year and has been bearish on the market during the stock market rebound in 2023.$PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$Michael Hartnett said that if the S&P 500 index falls again, it may test the high point of 2021, which means that the index may fall another 10%. He also reiterated his view that investors should sell stocks when the Fed cuts interest rates for the first time. He expects winners in the AI industry to falter in the second half of the year until profits recover.

He also emphasized some investment opportunities for assets, including government bonds, real estate investment trusts, small-cap stocks, and some emerging markets such as Brazil that are in trouble. These assets have been choked by a 5% return rate, but their performance will be better when the return rate is between 3% and 4%.

He also suggested investment opportunities for assets, including government bonds, REITs, small cap stocks, and some emerging markets such as Brazil that are struggling because these assets have been killed by a return rate of 5%, but they perform better when the return rate is between 3% and 4%.

Editor / jayden