Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NYSE:EXPD) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.8% to US$119 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$2.4b coming in 5.4% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$1.24, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Expeditors International of Washington from 13 analysts is for revenues of US$9.58b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.7% to US$5.02. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.93 in 2024. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$116, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Expeditors International of Washington's valuation in the near term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Expeditors International of Washington analyst has a price target of US$137 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$83.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Expeditors International of Washington's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 10% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.3% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Expeditors International of Washington to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$116, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Expeditors International of Washington going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Expeditors International of Washington that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
