三元正极市场份额持续领跑全球。2024 年上半年，公司主营产品销量5.49 万吨，较上年同期增长18.17%，其中高镍产品销量共计5.27万吨，同比增长16.82%，国内市占率39%，全球市占率20%，均居行业首位。2024 年上半年，公司海外客户销量占比17%，较去年同期大幅上升16 个百分点，客户结构不断优化。受市场竞争加剧、原料价格波动等多重因素影响，公司盈利承压。Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Considering the intensification of competition due to industry capacity investment, the 2024-2025 EPS will be downgraded to 0.58 (-1.05) yuan and 1.10 (-0.98) yuan, and the 2026 EPS will be added to 1.53 yuan. Refer to the comparable company PB to be given 1.6X PB in 2024, and the target price for the downgrade is 28.88 yuan.
Earnings turned losses into quarter-on-quarter improvements to earnings. The company achieved revenue of 6.888 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 46.6%; net profit to mother was 0.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.3%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 101.2%. Among them, the second quarter achieved revenue of 3.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%; net profit to mother was 0.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.035 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% year on year; and operating conditions improved in the second quarter, turning a loss into a profit.
The ternary cathode market share continues to lead the world. In the first half of 2024, the company's main product sales volume was 0.0549 million tons, an increase of 18.17% over the same period last year. Among them, high-nickel products sold a total of 0.0527 million tons, an increase of 16.82% over the previous year, with a domestic market share of 39% and a global market share of 20%, ranking first in the industry. In the first half of 2024, the company's overseas customer sales accounted for 17%, a sharp increase of 16 percentage points over the same period last year, and the customer structure was continuously optimized. Affected by multiple factors such as increased market competition and fluctuations in raw material prices, the company's profits are under pressure.
Global layout, manganese, lithium iron, and sodium electrodes are expected to contribute additional volume. In the first half of 2024, the company made strategic investments in global layout, sodium electricity, and lithium manganese iron phosphate, which had a certain impact on current profits. Overseas, JS Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company in Korea, has completed technical transformation and successfully entered the supply whitelist for many major Japanese and Korean customers. Large-scale batch delivery is expected to gradually begin in the third quarter. In terms of lithium manganese phosphate, the company shipped 2,400 tons in the first half of the year, reaching total shipments for the full year of 2023, an increase of 166% over the previous year. The construction of a solid phase 0.01 million ton production capacity project was completed, and the demonstration of Korea's 0.02 million ton production capacity construction was completed. It is expected that overseas mass production will be achieved in 2026. In terms of sodium electricity, the company's layered sodium oxide cathode materials have completed the industrial development of products above 165 Wh/kg, and have been delivered to well-known customers in small batches.
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