Is the rebound temporary? JPMorgan and UBS Group are not bullish on Japan's stock market's prospects this year, believing that the closing of yen carry trades is not yet over. The Bank of New York Mellon boldly predicts that the yen against the US dollar could rise to 100.
Despite recent consecutive rebounds in the market, JPMorgan and UBS do not believe that the Japanese stock market has emerged from the shadows. These two institutions have successively lowered their year-end target prices for major Japanese stock indexes, and they both believe that the yen carry trade has not yet ended.
On August 9, Rie Nishihara and other strategists at JPMorgan wrote in their latest report that they lowered the target price of Japan's stock index for the end of 2024 due to the strengthening of the yen and the risk of economic recession in the United States. Among them, the target of the Japan TOPIX index was lowered from 2,950 points to 2,700-2,800 points, and the target of the Nikkei 225 index was lowered from 42,000 points to 39,000-40,000 points.
JPMorgan also lowered its expected earnings per share growth for the Japanese stock market from around 8% to around 4%. Analyst Nishihara predicts that the market will remain highly volatile in the short term and will continue to evaluate the level of the Japanese market and observe the risk of economic recession in the United States and the market sentiment in the United States.
A few days ago, James Malcolm, a stock strategist at UBS, also lowered the year-end target price of Japanese stocks to change from 42,000 points to 39,000 points for the Nikkei 225 index. Malcolm believes that the yen carry trade has not yet ended and related transactions may be in consolidation in summer before the yen rises again.
UBS recommends buying yen and expects the yen-to-dollar exchange rate to rise more than 10% by the end of next year as the speculative position of the yen in the market continues to decrease.
Bank of New York Mellon is more optimistic about the prospects for the yen, and speculates that the yen-to-dollar exchange rate may rise to 100 yen. The bank's analyst Bob Savage believes that the arbitrage trades with yen as the financing currency will further close out. The USD/JPY rate of 147 is still too cheap, and over time, the yen exchange rate level should be closer to 100.
The current yen exchange rate has risen slightly and is around 147. During the global stock market crash a few days ago, the yen soared to 142 at one point. In July this year, the yen fell to 161 at one point.
Recently, the reversal of yen carry trades caused the collapse of the Japanese stock market and became the push for the sharp rise of the yen. Institutions have different views on when the yen carry trade will end. UBS, JPMorgan, and Bank of Nova Scotia believe that the yen carry trade closing process is only about 50% completed, and the yen is still one of the most undervalued currencies. Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale believe that the closure of the yen carry trade is nearing its end, and most of the yen short positions have been closed out.
Today, the Nikkei 225 index and the TOPIX index continued to rebound slightly, but compared with the historical high points of last month, these indexes still fell by about 17%.
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