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匠心家居(301061):预计关税风险可控 美地产链复苏可期

Ingenious Home (301061): Tariff risks are expected to be manageable, and the recovery of the US real estate chain can be expected

天風證券 ·  Aug 9

Steady operation, expected to perform well in Q2

The company's innovative products have a good reputation in the US terminal retail market. The transaction volume of core customers continues to increase, and the business of many Q1 customers increased by more than 50%; in addition, shipping charges continued to rise in the first half of the year, and the company mainly used FOB settlement methods to avoid the impact. Currently, high shipping costs have declined. We expect the company's Q2 shipment volume to continue to grow steadily year-on-year/month-on-month, and we are optimistic about the volume of new customers and store-to-store models in the second half of the year!

Furthermore, expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut are currently heating up. We expect the US real estate chain to recover steadily after interest rate cuts, and we are optimistic about overseas home demand in 25 years!

Strong supply chain, high profit margins, and the impact of tariffs is expected to be manageable

Faced with the potential impact of additional tariffs, we believe: 1) Production capacity: The company built a wholly-owned factory in Vietnam in 2019. Currently, furniture products are produced in Vietnam, and Vietnamese subsidiaries account for nearly 80% of revenue in '23. We expect the layout of overseas production bases to fully cover orders to the US; in addition, domestic factories are decision-making centers, R&D centers, administrative execution centers, and management centers for foreign branches, and the supply chain is efficient.

2) Production: Functional sofas are a labor-intensive industry, and local furniture companies in the US have shortcomings in product design, process and manufacturing, and cannot fully meet the needs of American consumers, so we think they rely more on efficient regional production; currently, the company is adopting a series of measures such as equipment automation, refined labor management, and standardization of main product accessories, and we expect production efficiency to continue to improve.

3) Thanks to supply chain advantages/product leadership, the company's net interest rate to mother was about 20% in '23. We believe that strong profitability can effectively cope with the impact of tariffs.

The company is deeply involved in offline functional sofas in the US, and has strong R&D/production/service capabilities to lock in an advantageous industrial position and accelerate progress to a consumer brand

ODM: The company's product development and design strength is leading, customer resources are being expanded at an accelerated pace, and 34/24 new customers (32/24 retailers) were obtained in 23/24Q1 respectively. New product iterations such as MotoLiving are expected to drive unit price increases and lead industry demand;

Store-to-store: The company is testing the waters of the store-to-store model within the original retail customer cooperation system, which is expected to accelerate the introduction of the Moto brand, enable retailers to grow together, and look forward to store-to-store landing to open up valuation space.

Adjust profit forecasts to maintain “buy” ratings

The company's new products+new customers+new brands are working at the same time. We expect that the return in 24-26 will be 0.49 billion/0.6 billion/0.71 billion, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 15X/13X/11X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: In-store expansion falls short of expectations, sales share of major customers falls short of expectations, sales expenses increase, overseas demand falls short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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