摊销成本和养护成本增加，整体毛利率下降6.5pct1H 公司营业成本为9.0 亿元，同比增长8.6%，其中公司采用预测车流量摊销法，导致摊销成本增加10.1%；恶劣天气频发导致养护成本增加39.0%。收入承压叠加成本增加，带动上半年公司毛利率同比下降6.5pct。1H 公司财务费用为2.49 亿元，同比下降12.2%，整体加权平均利率为3.05%，同比下降0.28pct。Incidents:
On August 6, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, and realized net profit of 0.314 billion yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%. The company's interim dividend was HK$0.12 per share, with a corresponding dividend rate of 58.5%.
The weather effect was compounded by road network diversion. 1H toll revenue fell 5% year on year. 1H achieved toll revenue of 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, mainly due to the increase in the number of holiday days in the first half of the year and bad weather in southern China. The main road products, the Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway, Hubei Suiyuenan Expressway and Hubei Daguangnan Expressway, achieved revenue of 0.5/0.34/0.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%/4.0%/7.6%. Among them, the Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway was affected by the diversion of the Congpu Expressway, which opened in October 2023, and the Daguangnan Expressway was affected by the diversion of the Wuyang Expressway and the closure of the Wuhuang Expressway. 1H achieved an investment income of 0.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.4%. Among them, the fee for participating in the road production of Guangzhou Beihuan Expressway expired at the end of March, and 1H confirmed a loss of 0.02 billion yuan.
Amortization costs and maintenance costs increased, and the overall gross margin decreased by 6.5 pct1h. The company's operating cost was 0.9 billion yuan, up 8.6% year on year. Among them, the company adopted a forecasted traffic amortization method, which led to an increase of 10.1% in amortization costs; frequent bad weather led to an increase of 39.0% in maintenance costs. Revenue pressure combined with increased costs led to a 6.5 pct year-on-year decline in the company's gross margin in the first half of the year. 1H's financial expenses were 0.249 billion yuan, down 12.2% year on year, and the overall weighted average interest rate was 3.05%, down 0.28 pct year on year.
The interim dividend rate was 58.5%. Following the progress of the Group's asset injection, the company's mid-term dividend was HK$0.12 per share. The corresponding dividend rate was 58.5%, an increase of 4.7 pct over the same period in '23.
Construction of the Guangzhou North Second Ring Road renovation and expansion project began in June 2024. We are optimistic about the release of traffic demand and the extension of the operating period after the main road industry renovation and expansion. Meanwhile, the Group acquired Shandong Qinbin Expressway and Henan Pinglin Expressway in December 2021 and February 2023, and is expected to be injected into the company later through the “parent company incubation - listed company purchase” model.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering the negative impact of 1H bad weather on the company's traffic, compounded by road network diversion and rising cost pressure in the short term, the company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 3.84/3.952/4.068 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -3.19%/2.91%/2.94%, respectively; net profit to mother is 0.657/0.704/0.723 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -14.18%/7.16%/2.68%, EPS respectively per share 0.39/0.42/0.43 yuan. Given that the company's subsidiary road products have good qualifications, the group is expected to continue to inject high-quality road products in the future to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Economic growth falls short of expectations; traffic declines due to road network diversion; changes in toll policies.
