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AI热潮已经结束?亚洲投资者还在寻思如何逢低买入

Has the AI boom come to an end? Asian investors are still considering how to buy low.

Zhitong Finance ·  11:08

The debate on whether the rise of artificial intelligence has come to an end is intensifying, but for some investors, another dip may be a buying opportunity.

The debate on whether the rise of artificial intelligence has come to an end is intensifying, but for some investors, another dip may be a buying opportunity.

This debate touches on the heart of a question that has troubled stock investors for months: has the red-hot artificial intelligence trade finally reached a turning point? Cracks are emerging as analysts question whether the industry can live up to its hype and whether returns can justify the massive investments being poured in.

Despite the largest two-day drop ever recorded in Asian tech stocks this week, regional fund managers are still looking for the next investment opportunity, reflecting their strong confidence in technology stocks that support global stock market rally. They say that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US), Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US), and SK Hynix are still attractive investment targets given the long-term prospects of artificial intelligence.

"Some of these stocks are definitely more attractive to us than they were two weeks ago," said William Yuen, Invesco's head of investment for Hong Kong. "Our trend is to at least maintain the position in this category of technology stocks, or if there are more opportunities for selling, we will increase our shareholding."

The following six charts illustrate the current state of the market and some of the reasons that investors remain confident in trading.

Despite the longest weekly price fall since the end of 2022 in the tech stock, Asian tech stocks are still an unstoppable force. The total market value of Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, and SK Hynix is $1.2 trillion, up from $312 billion ten years ago. According to calculations, their weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has increased from less than 4% at the end of 2007 to nearly 15%.

Although recently plummeted, analysts have raised their profit expectations for major Asian chip stocks. Unlike in the United States, expectations for chip stocks in the US have been lowered since the end of July. Following the recent sell-off, Morgan Stanley reinstated Taiwan Semiconductor as its top pick, citing the company's "quality and defensive nature" in the lengthy semiconductor downturn.

Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie Chan wrote in a report on Tuesday, "Confirmation of price increases and continued strong artificial intelligence capital expenditure should be key catalysts."

Both Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung have reported strong second-quarter earnings, and analysts say Taiwan Semiconductor's profit margin guidance suggests that prices for its advanced chips may rise. Compiled data shows that the three companies and SK Hynix are expected to see earnings growth of 26% to 55% next year, compared with an average growth of only 12% for MSCI Asia Pacific Index constituents.

Ganesh Ramachandran, from Lazard Asset Management, said:" Taiwan Semiconductor dominates the foundry business, so we believe their position is quite solid." It is understood that TSMC is one of the heavyweights in the Lazard Emerging Markets Fund that manages $1 billion in assets. As for SK Hynix, Ramachandran said the company's memory business is a cyclical industry that has just "begun to recover".

The Bloomberg Asia Pacific Semiconductor Index fell nearly 20% from its high in July, but compared with the largest drop ever seen in the past 20 years, this drop is relatively small. The index fell by about 80% during the global financial crisis and the bursting of the Internet bubble.

The region's tech stocks have become cheaper after the recent drop, which may help to increase their attractiveness to investors. As profit expectations rise and stock prices fall, a valuation indicator measured by the forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen below the 10-year average.

But while remaining optimistic, investors are also hedging their bets. This week, demand for hedging against further downward pressure on Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung's share prices surged, and the skewness of their share price volatility has risen to near the most pessimistic levels seen since May last year.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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