According to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, former President Trump holds a dominant position among voters on key economic issues, but he leads Vice President Kamala Harris by only 2 percentage points in the head-to-head matchup in the presidential election. #US Presidential Election# #Market Outlook for H2 2024#

After Biden was replaced by Harris, an assassination attempt was made on Trump, and after the Republican National Convention, Trump's 48%-46% lead was within the margin of error of the CNBC survey, unchanged from his 45%-43% lead over Biden in the NBC News survey in July. Although the situation in the direct confrontation between the two has not changed, the changes in both sides have dramatic but offsetting effects, leading to a balanced campaign situation.

The most significant change is that 81% of Democrats are satisfied with Harris' performance as a nominee, while only 33% are satisfied with Biden. However, this change was partially offset among Republicans, with an increase of 9 percentage points in satisfied Republicans with Trump as the nominee, reaching 80%.

Interest in the election increased by 3 percentage points among Democrats and 2 percentage points among Republicans. Young voters' support for Harris is significantly higher than their support for Biden, with the proportion supporting the Vice President now 10 percentage points higher than that supporting Trump, compared to only 2 percentage points in the July NBC survey. This change is offset by a significant fluctuation of 12 percentage points in support for Trump among 35-49 year old voters, with the proportion of this age group supporting Trump now at 9 percentage points. Harris' net support rate (support minus opposition) improved from -15 in the July NBC survey to -8, similar to Trump's improvement of -9.

No longer just about Trump.

'Now, this is no longer a referendum on Trump, but a direct competition between the two candidates,' said Micah Roberts, a partner at the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies.

Overall, the campaign remains tight, with both candidates consolidating support among their party members, but neither making significant gains among swing voters who will ultimately win the presidency.

Jay Campbell, a partner and Democratic pollster at Hart Research, said Harris has a lot of work to do in a short period of time.

'She still has a lot of responsibility to carry for the government,' Campbell said, 'she has to be accountable for this and define herself independently...it's a heavy burden to bear when faced with a mature Trump campaign.'

The survey of 1,001 Americans was conducted from July 31 to August 4, before Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Trump had nominated Ohio Senator JD Vance. The margin of error for the survey was ±3.1%.

Trump's Huge Advantage on the Economy.

On economic issues, Americans believe that Trump is twice as likely to improve their financial situation. 79% of Republicans believe that their economic situation will improve if Trump wins the White House. Only 48% of Democrats think their economic situation would be better if Harris wins, compared to 42% who think it wouldn't make a difference. As for independent voters, 31% believe that the economy will improve after Trump wins, while 10% believe it will improve after Harris wins, and 54% say it doesn't matter.

These results offer both sides an opportunity to persuade independent voters that they have better economic policies. Independent voters' voting intentions in the presidential election are 40%-36% in favor of Harris, with 20% undecided. Her lead among independent voters is 4 percentage points lower than that of Biden in the July NBC survey.

The survey also shows that Harris has a chance to introduce her policy to voters. Nearly 80% of people say they have some or a lot of knowledge of Trump's economic plans, while only 57% say the same about Harris.

Americans continue to prioritize inflation and the cost of living as key concerns in the presidential race. Among voters who prioritize this issue, Trump leads by 12 percentage points. He also has a similar lead of 12 percentage points over Harris in the second most important issue, the national economy. Harris has a 22 percentage point advantage among voters who are concerned about abortion, a 12 percentage point lead on healthcare, and a 6 percentage point lead on protecting democracy. Both are tied on which candidate is best suited to meet the needs of the middle class.

A key reason the two are close is that when asked who 'can bring about positive change,' Harris led Trump 39% to 38% - almost a tie.

Views on the current economic situation remain pessimistic, with only 21% of people believing that the economy is excellent or good, down 4 percentage points from the CNBC March survey. 78% of people believe that the economy is only average or poor, up 3 percentage points from before.

But for the first time during Biden's presidency, Americans have an optimistic outlook on the economy, with more believing that it will improve than those who believe it will deteriorate. This change is mainly driven by Republican optimism, with Republican optimism about the future of the economy increasing by nearly 20 percentage points from the CNBC survey in March. Republicans seem to believe that the economy will be brighter if Trump wins the White House.

The vast majority of Trump supporters rate the current situation or the economy as average or poor, a sentiment shared by most people who say they will vote for Harris.