The latest initial jobless claims in the USA were 0.233 million people, which was lower than the market's expected 0.24 million, a decrease of 0.017 million from the previous value.
Compared to the magnitude of the numbers themselves, data is more responsive to 'recession trading'.
US stocks, US bonds, and US dollar exchange rates all rose in unison.
With the release of the latest US initial jobless claims data on Thursday night, the US stock market gently brushed off the shadow of 'recession trading' and rallied strongly. After the data was released, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 equity index futures rose nearly 1% in an instant.
As of press time, the three major U.S. stock indexes have expanded gains, with the Dow up more than 1%, and the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq up nearly 2%.
Previously, based on the cost estimate of in-the-money options, the s&p 500 index is expected to fluctuate at least 1.2 percentage points up or down tonight - and the trigger for all of this is the weekly high-frequency unemployment data release.
Emotions are more important than data.
With the discussion of the US economic slowdown (hinting at the Fed's slow interest rate cuts) heating up recently, the previously inconspicuous initial jobless claims data suddenly received a lot of attention.
US Department of Labor data shows that the number of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the week ending August 3 was 0.233 million, down 0.017 million from the data slightly revised up 1,000 people in the previous week, and the market expected 0.24 million. As an aside, the seasonally unadjusted initial claimants number was 0.203 million, and the comparable number for the same period last year was 0.228 million.
Of course, although the initial claims figure itself has eased some market anxiety, the gradual slowdown of the US economy is also an undeniable trend.
Counting this week's data, the moving average of initial claims for nearly four weeks rose to 0.2407 million people, the highest level in nearly a year. Continuing claims (the statistics cycle is one week later, that is, the week ending July 27) rose to 1.875 million people, the highest since November 27, 2021.
For most of this year, the number of initial jobless claims has been on a mild upward trend, and there has been an impact from Hurricane Beryl and the summer shutdown of automotive equipment factories in recent months.
Due to the 'shocking' nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday--only 0.114 million new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, many people also learned of something called the 'Samuelson Rule.' Concerns about the US economy have kept the market in a highly volatile state over the past few days. That's also why the initial claims number can cause such a big wave of fluctuations.
Market performance.
In addition to the strength of the US stock market, various period US bond yields have shown slightly different degrees of increase, indicating that US bond funds weakened on Thursday.
As of writing, the 10-year US Treasury yield has briefly risen by 5 basis points to near the 4% level, up more than 30 basis points from the low point on Monday.
The US dollar index also rose. The yen exchange rate, which has been highly regarded by the market recently, fell further on Thursday, breaking below 141.6 from midweek.
Editor/new