In the first half of the year, Moutai realized a net profit attributable to mothers of 41.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%, slightly exceeding the brokerage firm's expectations; Moutai first clarified that the future dividend payout ratio will not be lower than 75% within three years, which has uplifted shareholders; Moutai Chairman Zhang Deqin said that the Moutai leadership team did not feel so terrible.
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On August 8th, Caixin.com (Reporter Zhu Wanping) Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) exceeded the brokerage's expectations in the first half of this year, and exceeded the annual growth rate guidance slightly. Guizhou Moutai released the mid-term financial report for 2024 and the cash dividend return plan for 2024-2026 tonight, and for the first time clarified that the total cash dividend amount each year will be no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to mothers for that year in the next three years, with two cash dividends (annual and mid-term dividends) each year.
The announcement shows that the company achieved operating income of 81.931 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 17.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 41.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%. Earlier, Guizhou Moutai set a business target for this year-said that the year-on-year growth rate of operating income is about 15%.
Guizhou Moutai's interim report slightly exceeded the expectations of most brokerage firms. According to financial association reporters, at present, including Zheshang Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, China Merchants Securities, GF Securities, Huachuang Securities, etc., a total of 12 brokerage firms have made predictions for Guizhou Moutai's net profit in the first half of the year, and generally expect the year-on-year growth rate to be 14%~15.8%.
In terms of quarters, this year's Q2, Guizhou Moutai's revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 16.95% and 16.1%, respectively, exceeding the expectations of most brokerages. The predicted range of the 12 brokerages for the Q2 performance of Guizhou Moutai is between 12% and 16%.
In terms of products, in the first half of this year, Moutai liquor achieved revenue of 68.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.67%, and Moutai series liquor achieved revenue of 13.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.51%. The revenue growth rate of Moutai series liquor exceeded the overall revenue growth rate of the company, and the revenue proportion of series liquor also increased by about 1.5 percentage points to 16.09%.
In terms of channels, in the first half of this year, Guizhou Moutai's direct sales channels (note: self-operated and iMoutai e-commerce platform) achieved revenue of 33.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.35%, and wholesale and agency channels achieved revenue of 47.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%. The proportion of direct sales channels decreased by about 4 percentage points year-on-year to 41.28%.
Regarding the decline in the proportion of direct sales, it may be related to the company's "controlling prices and supporting prices" in the first half of this year. During the first half of the year, the company temporarily suspended the policy of "hitting the standard" enterprises to purchase Moutai liquor for 1,499 yuan per bottle. On the other hand, the iMoutai direct sales platform of the company achieved tax-free income of 1.025 billion yuan for alcoholic beverages in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, which was lower than the company's overall revenue growth rate.
(Caption: This year's price trend of Maotai. Data source: YiMaoShiJia)
It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, affected by factors such as weak consumption and low-priced Huangniu dumping during the 618 period, Guizhou Moutai's best-selling product-Moutai liquor (53 degrees, 500mL) The wholesale price has dropped rapidly. The YiMaoShiJia Mini Program shows that the batch price of Moutai liquor was about 2,700 yuan/bottle at the beginning of the year, but it dropped to more than 2,100 yuan/bottle in late June. However, Moutai subsequently suspended the policy of enterprises in many places to group purchase Junfeng liquor at 1,499 yuan and reduced the supply of Junfeng liquor of 375ml, and many Moutai dealers in many places also defended the plate and stabilized the price. All of these factors have caused the wholesale price of Moutai liquor to continue to rise since late June. As of today, the wholesale price of Moutai liquor is about 2,440 yuan/bottle.
"According to our tracking data, the batch price of Moutai has risen sharply since the end of July. The batch price of Moutai liquor from 24 is about 2710 yuan/bottle, an increase of 100-140 yuan, and the batch price of Junfeng liquor from 24 is 2440 yuan/bottle, an increase of 50-60 yuan. Food and beverage analysts at a domestic brokerage firm told Caixin.com reporters that the rise in the batch price of Moutai was due to some liquor merchants' concentrated replenishment in a short period of time, coupled with the tightening of Moutai's delivery."
Regarding the future price trend of Moutai liquor, especially how the price will go during the Mid-Autumn Festival? The brokerage food and beverage analyst mentioned above believes that it mainly depends on the following variables: the situation of cattle and sheep hoarding for the Mid-Autumn Festival, whether the suspended 1499 yuan group purchase for enterprises can be resumed, how the recovered quotas are distributed, and the improvement of market demand.
Caption: Guizhou Moutai Liquor, Caixin.com Reporter Zhu Wanping
However, some brokerages are quite pessimistic about the price trend of Moutai liquor. In July of this year, UBS Securities stated in a research report that under a pessimistic scenario, the wholesale price of Moutai may fall 50% from the current level by the end of 2025. UBS is also bearish on Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory and other liquor brands.
Although the current society's expectations for baijiu seem quite pessimistic, Zhang Deqin, the chairman of Kweichow Moutai, expressed a hint of optimism when discussing the industry at a closed-door symposium in early August this year. At that time, Zhang Deqin said, "Now, the baijiu industry is in an adjustment period, but the Moutai leadership team doesn't feel so terrible. In the future, Moutai will increase its internationalization efforts and focus on the international market. I believe Moutai will make progress in the international market."
In addition to expanding into the international market, at the Guizhou Moutai Liquor Market Work Meeting held in the first half of 2024, Moutai also proposed for the first time to transform into a "new business" and target unicorns, specialized, new and small giant enterprises, and cultivate practitioners in new industries such as new energy, biotechnology and digital technology to form a new consumer group. In terms of products, strengthen the "olive-shaped" structure, with the 53-degree Feitian Moutai as the backbone, optimize the large single product "pyramid" matrix, ensure that Feitian maintains a heavyweight position in the product matrix, and control the other product specifications within reasonable range as much as possible, and have a clear positioning of consumer scenarios.