Poseida Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PSTX) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Revenue crushed expectations at US$26m, beating expectations by 68%. Poseida Therapeutics reported a statutory loss of US$0.32 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Poseida Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$86.6m in 2024. This implies a perceptible 2.1% reduction in Poseida Therapeutics' revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.41 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$74.4m and losses of US$1.44 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.
The consensus price target rose 14% to US$14.00, with the analysts encouraged by the improved revenue outlook even though the company remains lossmaking. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Poseida Therapeutics at US$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.1% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 59% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Poseida Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Poseida Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Poseida Therapeutics is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
