2019 年起我国核电站核准提速，22-23 年均核准机组数量为10 台，19-23年核电完成投资CAGR 达29.7%。我国核电投资运营主体主要包括中国广核、中国核电，两家企业在运核电装机占全国比重达到90%以上。21 年起中国核电（中核集团子公司）资本开支节奏显著提速，23 年投资规模较22年增长58.1%。2024 年计划资本开支金额达1215.5 亿元，同比+51.9%，其中核能项目占比约2/3，新能源占比约1/3。中国核电预计2024-2030 年核电机组装机容量复合增长率约为8.76%。从能源结构来看，据中国核能行业协会数据，预计2035 年我国核电在总发电量中的占比将达到10%左右（目前仅5%），未来核电建设发展空间广阔。从市占率角度来看，核电工程行业集中度较高，中国核建在核岛建设环节的份额具有领先优势，有望充分受益于行业扩容。Leading specialized listing of nuclear power engineering within the CNNC
The company is a nuclear power engineering construction enterprise with the longest history, the largest scale and the highest degree of professional integration under CNNC. Its technical advantages are outstanding. The main business is divided into two major sectors: nuclear power engineering, industrial and civil engineering, accounting for 22% and 69% of revenue in 23, respectively. The company's performance has continued to grow positively since its listing in 2016. The compound growth rates of operating income and net profit to mother in 16-23 were 14.8% and 14.5%, respectively, reflecting strong performance growth. With the boom in the nuclear power industry, we expect the compound growth rate of the company's net profit to reach 16.25% in 23-26.
The boom in the nuclear power engineering industry accelerates
Since 2019, approval of nuclear power plants in China has been accelerated. The average number of approved units in 22-23 was 10, and the CAGR for completed investment in nuclear power reached 29.7% in 19-23. China's nuclear power investors and operators mainly include China General Nuclear Power and China Nuclear Power. The two companies account for more than 90% of the country's installed nuclear power installations. Since '21, the pace of capital expenditure for China Nuclear Power (a subsidiary of CNNC) has accelerated markedly, and the scale of investment in '23 increased by 58.1% compared to '22. The planned capital expenditure for 2024 reached 121.55 billion yuan, +51.9% year-on-year, with nuclear energy projects accounting for about 2/3 and new energy sources for about 1/3. China Nuclear Power expects a compound growth rate of about 8.76% of its nuclear power assembly machine capacity from 2024-2030. Looking at the energy structure, according to data from the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, it is estimated that China's nuclear power will account for about 10% of total power generation in 2035 (currently only 5%), and there is plenty of room for future nuclear power construction and development. From the perspective of market share, the nuclear power engineering industry is highly concentrated, and China's nuclear construction share in the nuclear island construction process has a leading edge, which is expected to fully benefit from the expansion of the industry.
Impairment losses have narrowed/recovered, or brought about higher performance elasticity
The share of the company's net profit from credit impairment in 19-23 was 70-90%, far higher than that of the other eight major construction state-owned enterprises. On the one hand, it may be due to the long construction cycle of the nuclear power project itself (4-5 years), which led to a relatively high share of the company's accounts receivable for more than 3 years (19.1% in 23 years, the highest among construction central enterprises). On the other hand, we believe that the company's performance may still be more conservative in terms of impairment accounting treatment. If the subsequent impairment narrows, then we believe that the company's performance will still have greater growth elasticity.
We expect the nuclear power project to continue to expand, and give it an “increase in weight” rating
We expect the company's net profit to be 2.4, 2.8, and 3.2 billion yuan respectively for 24-26, +18%, +15%, and +16% year-on-year, respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing of the market on August 7 is 10, 8, and 7 times, respectively. As of the close of trading on August 7, 2024, the average PE of comparable companies in 24 years was 12.4 times. We believe that the company is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of the nuclear power engineering industry. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company was given 11 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 8.91 yuan. For the first time, coverage was given, and a “gain” rating was given.
Risk warning: Nuclear power plant approval and construction progress falls short of expectations, infrastructure real estate investment growth falls short of expectations, and risk of impairment of accounts receivable.
