分红限制即将解除，股东回报改善潜力大。全球视角来看，油运行业进入业绩兑现，股东回报改善期。虽然目前国内油运公司股东回报方面略弱于海外公司，但改善潜力较大。一方面，顶层设计驱动央企增加投资者回报。2024 年1 月24 日，国务院国资委将部署开展专项行动，着力提高央企控股上市公司质量，强化投资者回报。另一方面，招商南油未分配利润将要转正，分红限制即将解除。Core views:
Under the China Merchants Bureau, it is the leading transportation company for refined oil products in the Far East. China Southern Oil has been deeply involved in the liquid cargo transportation industry all year round, and is actively expanding diversified businesses related to crew labor and fuel supply. China Southern Petroleum has a certain competitive advantage in the industry. Its foreign trade refined oil transportation business ranks first in the Far East. It is the largest MR fleet carrier in the Far East. Its domestic crude oil transportation business ranks second in the country, the scale of chemical transportation capacity ranks first in the country, and the ethylene transportation business is exclusively operated domestically.
Supply will generally remain rigid in the future, and high capacity utilization rates are expected to be maintained. (1) Supply: The next two years are likely to enter phased high investment+high clearance. High investment stems from normal capital expenditure after shipowners' profits improve in the context of strong freight rates. However, in the next few years, as aging surges and environmental protection policies are implemented, the clean-up of old capacity is also expected to be very strong. Overall, effective capacity maintained a weak net growth. (2) Demand: In the next two years, global refinery production capacity will maintain a 1-2% growth rate, while refineries in Europe, America, and Australia will reduce production capacity, while refineries in Asia and the Middle East will be the new direction for future capacity investment. In the face of total volume expansion and regional imbalances, the price spread of refined oil products between regions is expected to remain high, and demand for long-distance trade and arbitrage will continue to increase.
Dividend restrictions will soon be lifted, and there is great potential for improving shareholder returns. From a global perspective, the oil transportation industry has entered a period of achieving results and improving shareholder returns. Although shareholder returns of domestic oil carriers are currently slightly weaker than overseas companies, there is great potential for improvement. On the one hand, top-level design drives central enterprises to increase investor returns. On January 24, 2024, the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission will deploy and carry out special actions to focus on improving the quality of listed companies controlled by central enterprises and strengthening investor returns. On the other hand, CMB's undistributed profits will be corrected, and dividend restrictions will soon be lifted.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 2.2, 2.2, and 2.1 billion yuan in 24-26. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company will be given 8 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 3.76 yuan/share, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning. Global financial crisis, release of orders exceeding expectations, IMO regulations falling short of expectations, export quotas falling short of expectations, risk of sanctions, etc.
