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Futu Morning News | Global rate cut bets rise sharply! Morgan Stanley: Expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November respectively; Outperforming stocks celebrate collectively! Upstart soared nearly 40% overnight, and Shopify

Futu News · 08:04

热点要闻

摩根大通上调年底前美国经济陷入衰退的概率，预计9月和11月分别降息50个基点

摩根大通现在认为，美国经济在今年年底之前陷入衰退的可能性为35%，高于上个月初的25%。随着美国通胀压力的下降，摩根大通预计美联储将在9月和11月分别降息50个基点。首席执行官戴蒙则表示怀疑通胀能否回到美联储的2%目标。

日本央行副行长：市场不稳定，就不会加息

日本央行重新转鸽，副行长内田真一称在市场不稳定时不会加息，出现了一些因素使得央行对加息的态度更加谨慎。投资者需要密切留意今日日本央行即将公布的7月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要。

美联储前三把手再放鸽：美联储“疯狂之旅”才刚开始，9月会议可能降息50基点

两周前呼吁美联储7月就降息的美联储前三把手杜德利认为，联储拖延降息的时间越久，可能造成的经济伤害就越大；预计在9月货币政策会议上，美联储可能决定降息25个或50个基点，具体幅度视从现在到那时的经济数据而定。未来数月，利率前景可能仍很不确定，股市和债市将有更大波动。

巴菲特旗下伯克希尔的超短期美债持仓比美联储还多

伯克希尔截至第二季度末持有2346亿美元的短期美债，同时拥有超过420亿美元的现金和现金等价物，其中包括期限为三个月或更短的美债。相比之下，截至7月31日，美联储持有的期限为一年以下的美国国债的规模为1953亿美元。如果以5%左右的利率投资于三个月期美债计算，2000亿美元的现金每年将产生约100亿美元的收益。

欧洲天然气价飙升至年内新高，俄乌战场动态引发市场动荡

周三，欧美天然气期货价格双双走高，其中欧洲气价一度飙升至年内最高水平。荷兰TTF交易量最高的9月天然气期货价格收于38.75欧元/兆瓦时，为去年12月份以来的最高水平。有报道称，乌克兰军队占领了位于库尔斯克州Sudzha的一个关键天然气中转站。

美股复盘

三大指数突遇寒流集体收跌，英伟达重挫5%

周三，美股高开低走，三大指数集体收跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.60%，标普500指数跌0.77%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.05%。但受地缘政治冲突升温和10年期美债拍卖需求不振打压，午盘后美股转跌并收于日低。

大型科技股涨跌不一，苹果涨1.25%，微软跌0.30%，英伟达跌5.12%，谷歌C涨0.13%，亚马逊涨0.52%，Meta跌1.05%，特斯拉跌4.43%。

中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.46%，报5,454.92点，新东方跌7.31%，=小鹏汽车跌5.40%，蔚来跌2.65%，=京东跌0.47%，阿里巴巴跌0.09%，拼多多涨0.40%，理想汽车涨1.53%。

Shopify大涨近18%，Q2业绩及Q3营收增速指引均超预期

加拿大电商公司Shopify $SHOP.US$ 涨近18%，公司第二季度营收为20.5亿美元，同比增长约21%，超出分析师预期的20亿美元；不计一次性项目，每股盈利为0.26美元，高于预期的0.2美元。Shopify预计第三季度营收增速将在21%至26%，分析师预计增长21%。

超微电脑绩后大跌超20%，上季营收翻倍猛增，但盈利远逊预期，指引喜忧参半

超微电脑 $SMCI.US$ 绩后大跌超20%，第四财季营收超预期同比增长超140%，EPS盈利较预期低23%，毛利率加速下降，创最低纪录；2025财年第一财季营收指引增长两倍远超预期，EPS指引增超110%仍低于预期。超微将10月1日1股拆10股交易。

Q2业绩超预期，Upstart绩后涨近40%

人工智能借贷平台Upstart $UPST.US$ 一夜暴涨近40%。该公司公布的第二季度财务业绩好于预期，并在周二发布了高于预期的第三季度收入指引。Upstart公布的季度每股亏损为17美分，比分析师普遍预期的39美分亏损高出56.41％。季度收入为1.28亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的1.2454亿美元高出2.78％。Upstart预计2024年第三季度的收入约为1.5亿美元，而预期的收入为1.245亿美元。

报道：特斯拉取消东南亚设厂计划，专注于扩大当地充电网络

据多家媒体报道，特斯拉 $TSLA.US$ 做出一项战略决定，停止在泰国建立制造工厂的计划，转而专注于扩大其在该国的充电网络。消息人士称，除了中国、美国和德国，特斯拉在马来西亚、印尼、泰国和其他国家目前都不会继续开厂进程。

美光科技一度涨超4%，最终收跌超2%

在2022年暂停股票回购后，美光科技 $MU.US$ 可能会恢复股票回购计划。该公司称回购股票以抵消员工股票计划带来的稀释影响。受该消息刺激，美光科技盘中一度涨超4%，最终收跌超2%。

迪士尼跌超4%，Q3主题公园业务表现疲软，警告需求将继续放缓

迪士尼 $DIS.US$ 跌超4%，消息面上，Q3营收231.6亿美元，同比增长3.7%，市场预期230.4亿美元；调整后每股收益1.39美元，市场预期1.19美元。主题公园业务表现令人失望，美国和加拿大营业收入同比下降6%，至13.5亿美元，海外营收缓慢增长。迪士尼警告称，需求的放缓可能会在未来几个季度持续。

爱彼迎跌超13%，Q2盈利同比下降15% 营收指引逊预期

爱彼迎 $ABNB.US$ 跌超13%，一度跌超15%创历史最大盘中跌幅，最低触及110.4美元。消息面上，爱彼迎第二季度营收27.5亿美元，同比增长11%；净利润5.55亿美元，合每股收益86美分，同比下降15%。该公司预计三季度营收36.7亿-37.3亿美元，低于分析师预期38.4亿美元。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水再度爆买港股ETF，加仓腾讯近11亿港元；南水买入贵州茅台超3亿元

8月7日（周三），南下资金净买入港股116.73亿港元。

$盈富基金(02800.HK)$、$腾讯控股(00700.HK)$、$恒生中国企业(02828.HK)$分别获净买入56.47亿港元、10.97亿港元、10.13亿港元；

$中国电信(00728.HK)$、 $工商银行.HK$ 分别遭净卖出2.26亿港元、458万港元。

今日关注

关键词：美国初请失业金人数；日本央行货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要；礼来、中国移动、中芯国际财报

周四，经济数据方面，美国6月批发销售月率、初请失业金人数等重磅数据值得关注。

财经事件方面，日本央行的7月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要，以及澳洲联储主席布洛克的讲话，将成为市场焦点。加拿大央行也将公布货币政策会议纪要。

财报方面，$礼来(LLY.US)$、$Unity Software(U.US)$等美股重要公司，以及$中国移动(00941.HK)$、$中芯国际(00981.HK)$等港股行业龙头的最新业绩重磅来袭。

新股方面，港股新股$黑芝麻智能(02533.HK)$将上市。

牛牛晨读：

永远买高质量的商品，它们不但耐用，而且残存价值高。
——吉姆•罗杰斯

编辑/Somer

Hot news

JPMorgan raised the probability of the US economy falling into recession before the end of the year, and expects a 50 basis point rate cut in both September and November.

JPMorgan now believes there is a 35% chance of a US economic recession before the end of the year, up from 25% at the beginning of last month. With a decrease in US inflation pressure, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in both September and November. CEO Jamie Dimon expressed doubt that inflation could return to the Fed's 2% target.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor: If the market is unstable, there will be no interest rate hike.

The Bank of Japan has turned dovish again, with Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya saying that interest rates will not be raised in unstable market conditions. Investors need to pay close attention to the summary of the opinions of the central bank's monetary policy meeting in July, which will be released today.

The top three officials of the Federal Reserve are becoming more dovish: The Fed's "crazy journey" has just begun, and the September meeting may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points.

Two weeks ago, the first three leaders of the Federal Reserve called for a rate cut in July, and Fed Chairman Powell has stressed the need to "respond accordingly" to the uncertainties facing the US economy. Now, Fed's Bullard believes that the longer the Fed delays rate cuts, the greater the potential economic damage it could cause; he expected the Fed to decide on a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at its September monetary policy meeting, and the specific amplitude will depend on economic data from now to then. In the coming months, the prospect of interest rates could still be uncertain, and the stock and bond markets may experience greater volatility.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds more short-term US Treasuries than the Fed.

As of the end of the second quarter, Berkshire holds $234.6 billion of short-term US Treasuries, as well as over $42 billion of cash and cash equivalents, which includes US Treasuries with maturities of three months or less. In comparison, as of July 31st, the Federal Reserve holds $195.3 billion of US Treasuries with maturities of one year or less. If invested in three-month US Treasuries at a rate of approximately 5%, $200 billion of cash would generate approximately $10 billion in annual returns.

European natural gas prices have surged to a new high this year due to the dynamic situation in Russia and Ukraine that has caused market volatility.

On Wednesday, natural gas futures prices in Europe and America both rose, with European gas prices soaring to their highest level this year. The highest-traded Dutch TTF September natural gas futures price was 38.75 euros/megawatt hour, the highest level since December last year. There are reports that the Ukrainian military has occupied a key natural gas transit station in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The three major indexes encountered cold weather and fell collectively, with Nvidia down 5%.

On Wednesday, US stocks opened high and fell low, with all three major indexes falling. At the close, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.60%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.05%. However, as geopolitical tensions and weak demand for 10-year US Treasuries weighed on the situation, US stocks turned lower at midday and closed at the daily low.

Large tech stocks were mixed, with Apple up 1.25%, Microsoft down 0.30%, Nvidia down 5.12%, Google C up 0.13%, Amazon up 0.52%, Meta down 1.05%, and Tesla down 4.43%.

In terms of Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.46%, closing at 5,454.92 points. New Oriental fell 7.31%, Xpeng fell 5.40%, Nio fell 2.65%, JD.com fell 0.47%, Alibaba fell 0.09%, Pinduoduo rose 0.40%, and Li Auto Inc rose 1.53%.

Shopify surged nearly 18% and exceeded expectations for Q2 results and Q3 revenue growth.

Canadian e-commerce company Shopify $SHOP.US$ rose nearly 18%, with Q2 revenue of $2.05 billion, up about 21% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2 billion; without one-time items, earnings per share were $0.26, higher than the expected $0.20. Shopify expects Q3 revenue growth to be between 21% and 26%, while analysts expect it to grow 21%.

Super Micro Computer fell more than 20% after its earnings. The revenue in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations and increased by more than 140% year-on-year. However, EPS earnings were 23% lower than expected, and gross margin accelerated its decline, hitting a record low; revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 is expected to double, exceeding expectations, and EPS guidance is expected to increase by more than 110%, still lower than expected. Super Micro's 1-to-10 stock split will take effect on October 1.

Super Micro Computer $SMCI.US$ EPS was below expectations, while profit margins have been declining faster than expected, reaching an all-time low. The revenue guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 is expected to double, exceeding expectations, and the EPS guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 is expected to increase by more than 110%, but still lower than expected.

Upstart rose nearly 40% after exceeding Q2 expectations.

Artificial intelligence lending platform Upstart $UPST.US$ Up nearly 40% overnight. The company's second quarter financial performance was better than expected, and it released higher-than-expected third quarter revenue guidance on Tuesday. Upstart reported a quarterly loss of 17 cents per share, which is 56.41% higher than the analysts' average expectation of a loss of 39 cents per share. Quarterly revenue was 0.128 billion US dollars, 2.78% higher than the analysts' average expectation of 0.12454 billion US dollars. Upstart expects third quarter 2024 revenue to be about 0.15 billion US dollars, compared with an expected revenue of 0.1245 billion US dollars.

Tesla cancels plans to establish plant in Southeast Asia and focuses on expanding local charging network according to reports.

According to multiple media reports, Tesla $TSLA.US$ has made a strategic decision to stop building manufacturing plants in countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and others, except for China, the United States and Germany, and instead focus on expanding its charging network in those countries.

Micron Technology rose more than 4% at one time and closed down more than 2%.

After suspending stock buybacks in 2022, Micron Technology $MU.US$ may resume its share buyback program. The company said it will buy back shares to offset the dilution impact of its employee stock plan. Stimulated by the news, Micron Technology rose more than 4% at one point and closed down more than 2%.

Disney fell more than 4%, with weak performance in Q3 theme park business and a warning that demand will continue to slow.

Disney $DIS.US$ fell more than 4%, with Q3 revenue of 23.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, compared with the market's expected 23.04 billion US dollars; adjusted EPS was 1.39 US dollars, compared with the market's expected 1.19 US dollars. The performance of the theme park business was disappointing, with revenue in the United States and Canada down 6% year-on-year to 1.35 billion US dollars, and overseas revenue growing slowly. Disney warned that the slowdown in demand may continue for the next few quarters.

Airbnb fell more than 13%, with Q2 profits down 15% year-on-year and revenue guidance lower than expected.

airbnb $ABNB.US$ fell more than 13%, dropping more than 15% at one point, the largest intraday drop in history, and hitting a low of $110.4. Airbnb's Q2 revenue was $2.75 billion, up 11% year-on-year; net income was $0.555 billion, or $0.86 per share, down 15% year-on-year. The company expects Q3 revenue to be between $3.67 billion and $3.73 billion, lower than analysts' expected $3.84 billion.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Northbound funds burst into buying Hong Kong ETFs again, with nearly 1.1 billion Hong Kong dollars added to Tencent; Southbound funds purchased more than 0.3 billion yuan of Kweichow Moutai.

On Wednesday, August 7, southbound funds net bought 11.673 billion Hong Kong dollars of Hong Kong stocks.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG(02800.HK)$,$TENCENT(00700.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF(02828.HK)$They received a net purchase of 5.647 billion yuan, 1.097 billion yuan, and 1.013 billion yuan respectively;

$CHINA TELECOM(00728.HK)$and$ICBC.HK$ Net sales of HKD 226 million and HKD 4.58 million, respectively.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: US initial jobless claims; BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes; Lilly, China Mobile, SMIC financial reports.

On Thursday, economic data including US June wholesale sales rate and initial jobless claims are worth paying attention to.

In terms of financial events, the BOJ's July monetary policy meeting minutes, as well as speeches by the Australian Reserve Bank Chairman Brock, will be the market focus. The Bank of Canada will also release minutes of its monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, the latest performance of major US stock companies such as

Regarding financial reports,$Eli Lilly and Co(LLY.US)$,$Unity Software(U.US)$and leading Hong Kong stock companies like $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK)$,$SMIC(00981.HK)$will be released.

Regarding new listings, Hong Kong's new stock $BLACK SESAME(02533.HK)$will be listed.

Futubull Morning News:

Always buy high-quality commodities, as they are not only durable but also have high residual value.
Jim Rogers

Editor/Somer

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