1H24 results are in line with performance forecasts and our expectations
The company announced 1H24 results. 1) Finance: 1H24's revenue also fell 26.4% to 0.26 billion yuan, gross margin was about 54% (1H23:52%), and the scale effect was evident when the gross margin increased. Net profit to the mother also fell 46.6% to 40.72 million yuan (performance forecast: 37-41 million yuan); corresponding to 2Q24, the company's revenue also fell 35.6% to 0.184 billion yuan, gross margin of about 54% (2Q23:
50%). Net profit to mother fell 52.2% to 35.91 million yuan. The decline in revenue and profit was mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in the number of exhibitions and total number of booths in the first half of '24. The overall results were in line with the performance forecast and our expectations.
2) Operation: 1H24 has held a total of 6 exhibitions in 4 countries, and we estimate the number of booths to be around 4,500-4,600 (1H23 has held a total of 9 exhibitions in 8 countries, with more than 5,600 booths). 3) Shareholder return: Disclose the 24-year profit distribution plan, with a cash dividend of 3 yuan for every 10 shares, with a total dividend of about 67.78 million yuan, accounting for about 96% of the distributable profit; as of 7/31, the company had repurchased a total of about 56.37 million yuan (previously announced plans to repurchase 50 million-0.1 billion yuan), and the repurchased shares accounted for about 1.53% of the total share capital.
Development trends
Contract liabilities as of 1H24 fell about 1% year over year; short-term focus on booth pre-sales in the fourth quarter. 1) We estimate that the total number of 1H24 booths is about 4,500-4,600; looking ahead, the company updated the 2H24 exhibition plan to 8-9 (the German exhibition has been cancelled; we expect the Indian exhibition to be cancelled more likely). We estimate the total number of booths for the whole year is about 0.016 million (23 years: over 0.013 million; at the beginning of '24, the company's annual forecast: 0.019 million). 2) As of 1H24's contract debt, which fell by about 1% to 0.167 billion yuan, we believe the prepayment ratio for exhibitors has declined (we estimate that 1H24 exhibitors will pay about 55% in advance after booking their booth, while 1H23 exhibitors have sufficient sales momentum and high motivation to participate in the exhibition after the pandemic, and the prepayment ratio is about 75%). Looking ahead, the company plans to host 4 exhibitions in 3Q. We expect the number of booths to reach more than 3,000 in a single quarter (3Q23: about 1,800). We recommend continuing to track the booth pre-sale performance in the second half of the year (especially in the fourth quarter).
We have been paying attention to the optimization results of external cooperation in organizing exhibitions and refined internal sales for a long time. Considering that the willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions has declined due to the impact of the macro environment, the company's own operations and cash flow, the company plans to promote sales based on external cooperation to host exhibitions and refined internal sales models. 1) Cooperative exhibition: The company 1H24 has cooperated with Hanover, China Educational Equipment Association, Shanghai Shenshi Exhibition, etc. to host sub-industry exhibitions under national exhibitions. We believe that cooperative exhibitions can absorb customer resources from international exhibition companies and other in-house exhibition companies and bring about a certain increase in booths, but we also need to pay attention to the potential impact of cooperative exhibitions on gross margin; 2) Refined internal sales: The company carries out more detailed hierarchical management of both exhibitors and buyers to achieve accurate contact with buyers to promote exhibitions and use targeted buyer resources to attract exhibitors and drive sales. Looking ahead, we recommend continuing to pay attention to sales results brought about by internal and external optimization.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Carefully considering the intention of SMEs to participate in the exhibition and the reduction in the number of booths for the full year of '24, we lowered the net profit from 24/25 by 9/ 9% to 0.231/0.289 billion yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to 15/12x 2024/25e P/E; maintaining the outperforming industry rating. Considering the correction in sector valuations, we lowered our target price by 26% to 20 yuan, corresponding to 20/16x 2024/25e P/E. The current upward space is about 33%.
risks
Geopolitical risks; booth sales falling short of expectations; increased competition in overseas exhibition markets, etc.
Comment(0)
Reason For Report