开店灵活下沉，同店销售略降。①开店数超预期，加盟占比进一步提高：截止2024H1，公司门店总数15,423 家/同比+13%，24Q2 净增 401 家门店，其中加盟店净新增 99 家，占比25%。 其中肯德基Q2 净新增门店 328 家达10931 家/同比+14%，其中加盟店净新增 74 家，占比23%；必胜客Q2 净新增门店79 家达3504 家/同比+14%。②同店销售受到客单价负面影响：2024Q2 同店销售同比-4%（肯德基-3%，必胜客-8%），恢复到2019 年同期86.7%（肯德基87.7%，必胜客86.3%）。2024Q2 肯德基TC+4%，TA-7%；必胜客TC+2%，TA-9%。Key points of investment:
Investment suggestions: Q2 performance exceeded expectations, considering that the company's net profit due to the same store pressure was reduced to 0.849/0.915/0.976 billion US dollars respectively; considering that the company will return 3 billion US dollars to shareholders in the form of dividends and repurchases in 2024-2026, the EPS is expected to be 2.16 (-0.08) /2.45 (-0.04) /2.71 (-0.01) dollars, respectively, +8%/+14%/+10%. Corresponding PE is 15x/14x/13x respectively. Maintain an increase in holdings rating.
Performance summary: 2024Q2 total revenue of 2.68 billion dollars/ +1% (excluding exchange rate +4%), operating profit 0.266 billion/ +4% (excluding exchange rate +7%), core operating profit 0.275 billion/ +12%, net profit 0.212 billion/ +8% (excluding exchange rate +11%), adjusted net profit of 0.266 billion dollars/ +3% (excluding exchange rate +6%), EPS +17% per share (excluding exchange rate +19%) .
Store openings have declined flexibly, and same-store sales have declined slightly. ① The number of stores opened exceeded expectations, and the share of franchisees increased further: as of 2024H1, the total number of company stores was 15,423, +13% year-on-year, with a net increase of 401 stores in 24Q2, including a net increase of 99 franchisees, accounting for 25%. Among them, KFC Q2 added 328 net stores to 10,931, or +14% year over year, of which 74 new franchisees added net, accounting for 23%; Pizza Hut Q2 added 79 stores to 3504, or +14% year over year. ② Same-store sales were negatively affected by customer unit price: 2024Q2 same-store sales -4% (KFC -3%, Pizza Hut -8%), returning to 86.7% in the same period in 2019 (KFC 87.7%, Pizza Hut 86.3%). 2024Q2 KFC TC +4%, TA -7%; Pizza Hut TC +2%, TA -9%.
Improve operational efficiency and optimize driving cost rates. 2024Q2 restaurant profit margin was 15.5% /YoY -0.6 pct/comparable caliber remained flat after excluding the 2023Q2 temporary subsidy of 12 million dollars. Among them, KFC restaurant's profit margin was 16.2% /year over year -1.1 pct/comparable caliber -0.6 pct, and Pizza Hut's profit margin was 13.2% /year over year +0.8 pct/comparable caliber +1.1 pct. The most important factor in optimizing Pizza Hut's profit margins is the reduction in labor cost rates due to improved efficiency. ① Menu innovation: The new PizzaDough Burger is selling well, and Pizza Hut is expanding its price range downward; ② Streamline processes and improve operational efficiency; ③ Store innovation: Pizza Hut has piloted lightweight and better UE Wow stores since May. There were more than 100 stores at the end of July, and the number of stores is expected to exceed 200 by the end of July.
Risk warning: Opening stores fell short of expectations, the same store declined sharply, consumer demand was weak, and industry competition intensified.