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拉加德首秀打开进一步宽松大门 约翰逊大选或获胜

Lagarde's debut opens the door to further easing Johnson may win the election

汇通网 ·  Dec 13, 2019 09:02

Original title: Lagarde's first show opened the door to further relaxation, but Johnson's election victory became a high-probability event, and the pound abruptly pulled the euro to profit.

In Asian trading on Friday, the euro hit its highest level against the dollar since Aug. 14, within striking distance of 1.1199, and is now trading at 1.1173.

Sterling rose nearly 350 points against the dollar in early trading in Asia to 1.3514, its highest level since May 18, 2018. Exit polls show Johnson is expected to win the British general election by a landslide, paving the way for Brexit and boosting non-US currencies such as the euro. most of the voting results will be released between 7:00 and 13:00 Beijing time on December 13, which should be closely watched.

The euro closed flat at 1.1130 against the dollar on Thursday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the euro briefly reached its highest level in more than five weeks as the euro zone's economic slowdown appeared to be bottoming out. But then extended the decline to an intraday low of 1.1103.

The European Central Bank maintained stability as scheduled in December, and Lagarde expressed a more optimistic view of the economy.

The ECB's new president, Christine Lagarde, presided over its first policy meeting on Thursday, keeping its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged and even opening the door for more stimulus measures, while the bank prepares to conduct a comprehensive review of its operations.

At a press conference after the meeting, Lagarde expressed a more optimistic view of the economy and promised a new leadership style in the year-long comprehensive policy review process.

With little expansion in the eurozone economy, the former IMF managing director is a staunch supporter of the ECB's loose monetary policy, but suggests that the worst of the eurozone slowdown may be over and that a recovery that is often discussed but still nowhere to be found may now be quietly under way.

Lagarde also responded positively to the eagerness of the market and the media about how she would take over her predecessor, Draghi. As a technocrat, Draghi is hailed as one of the world's most outstanding communicators who are well versed in monetary policy.

'i will have my own style, 'she said in a brief opening statement before answering a reporter's question. Don't read too much, don't Zhuge Liang afterwards, don't compare with each other. I want to be myself, so it might be different.

Lagarde refuses to accept the traditional label of the central bank world, saying she is neither a policy hawk nor a dove, but an owl. She will use her wisdom to create the widest possible consensus and bridge the recent differences between the management committee.

Kjersti Haugland, an economist at DNB, says Ms Lagarde's clear desire for consensus may suggest that hawks will have some greater influence on policy decisions than in the Draghi era.

The European Central Bank plans to review the policy early next year and plans to end it by the end of next year.

The ECB will begin its proposed policy review in January, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of next year. The assessment will listen to the views of all parties, including civil society and academia.

Lagarde said that the goal of the assessment is not only to spread the creed we think we are already familiar with, but also to listen. There is no expected landing zone yet. Similar attempts are being made in the United States.

Since taking office last year, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has also spoken in a more consumer-friendly tone, although the market expects the Fed to make little adjustment to the definition of its inflation target.

While the ECB's assessment will also focus on the definition of the inflation target, Ms Lagarde said the review process would also weigh some fundamental issues, including how technology and climate change affect policy. and how to address rising inequality in advanced economies.

The ECB has set an inflation target of just under 2 per cent, but inflation has been below that target since 2013. Some argue that the fundamentals that guide inflation have changed, setting a permanent cap on prices.

To ease the pressure on the ECB, some argue for more flexibility in the inflation target and room for the ECB to meet its target, as the central bank has exhausted its traditional policy tools and now relies on untested tools such as bond purchases and ultra-low-interest loans to banks.

Pictet Wealth Management's Frederik Ducrozet said the scope of the strategic review may not be finalized by early 2020, but it should focus on four main issues: the definition of price stability and measures of inflation; the side effects of unconventional policy measures; internal and external communication strategies; and climate risks.

Ms Lagarde may not agree on the terms of the review until Isabel Schnabel and Fabio Panetta, the nominees of the ECB's executive committee, take office on January 1st.

The European Central Bank adjusts its economic growth forecast slightly and may not do anything next year.

Financial analysts believe the ECB will sit tight for the whole of next year, reinforced by the Fed's December decision suggesting that interest rates are unlikely to be adjusted in 2020.

Lagarde's first policy decision and the ECB's latest economic forecasts did nothing to dispel those expectations.

The ECB kept its deposit rate at an all-time low of minus 0.5 per cent, while retaining the possibility of another cut. The ECB also promised to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time and keep its monthly bond purchases unchanged at 20 billion euros a month to reduce borrowing costs.

Arguably the biggest change is the fine-tuning of the ECB's growth forecasts, suggesting that the risks are less obvious, mainly because trade tensions appear to be easing and the UK election is likely to clarify the prospects for Brexit.

The ECB's latest forecasts are also virtually unchanged, although preliminary forecasts for 2022 suggest that inflation will remain below the ECB's target.

Nevertheless, both inflation and economic growth are expected to rise, suggesting that even if the absolute level is not very encouraging, the direction is good. The ECB expects inflation of 1.6 per cent in 2022 to hit 1.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year.

EURUSD traded at 1.1172 at 74 at 8:55 Beijing time, according to the Huitong Finance and Economics Ehuitong software.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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