With Harris closely following in various polls, Trump was once in a solid lead, but now the victory is difficult to determine. In the national average poll, Harris and Trump were almost tied, with Trump receiving 47.2% support and Harris with a high rate of 47.3% support. On the product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
According to multiple media reports, Harris has officially received the nomination for the US Democratic presidential candidate, and has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Everything seems to be on track, but the outcome of this year's US presidential election is increasingly uncertain.
With Harris closely following in various polls, Trump has gone from being a sure winner to a tight race.
In the national average poll tracked by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Harris and Trump were almost even, with Trump receiving 47.2% of support and Harris with a high rate of 47.3% support.
When Biden announced his withdrawal and Harris was just preparing to take over, Trump initially led by more than 6 percentage points.
According to a joint poll conducted by National Public Radio (NPR), PBS, and Marist College, Harris has a support rate of as high as 51%, leading Trump by 3%. 2% of respondents have not yet made a decision. The poll surveyed 1,513 registered voters from August 1st to 4th, 2024.
It is worth noting that the above institutions also conducted a survey of 1,117 registered voters on the second day of Biden's announcement of his withdrawal, July 22. The results showed that Trump led Harris by one percentage point. Therefore, although the latest 3% advantage is still within a 3.4 percentage point error range, it also indicates that Harris's chances of winning continue to expand.
At the same time, the election forecaster Nate Silver also announced for the first time that 'Harris leads Trump', while Trump's chances of winning have always been in the first place. He said last week that the competition is 'too close to call'.
The gap in support rates between states is narrowing.
DDHQ tracked the shifts in 9 of the 10 key states of the Democratic Party. The organization concluded that compared to before Biden withdrew from the race, the state with the largest average change in polls was North Carolina, where Trump's lead has dropped from 10 percentage points to only 3.
The gaps in other key states are also narrowing, although Trump is still leading in most states that could decide the outcome.
Specifically, since Biden announced his withdrawal, Nevada has only conducted two polls and released results, but overall, Trump's average lead is 3 percentage points, lower than his previous 9 percentage point lead.
In addition, 8 polls in Pennsylvania, 5 polls in Georgia and Michigan show that Harris's support has increased by 2, 4, and 3 percentage points respectively.
Overall, Harris has improved in swing states and national polls.
Editor/Lambor