With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.9x SJW Group (NYSE:SJW) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

SJW Group has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

Is There Enough Growth For SJW Group?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as SJW Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.9%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 23% overall rise in EPS. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.2% per year as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that SJW Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From SJW Group's P/E?

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that SJW Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with SJW Group (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

You might be able to find a better investment than SJW Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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