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星期二是什么颜色?全球股市暴跌后续跟进

What color is Tuesday? Following the global stock market crash.

Golden10 Data ·  11:40

After the plummet, will the market forget the pain and rebound? Some analysts believe that today's rebound is reasonable, while others warn of bottom-fishing risks...

After yesterday's stock market crash that washed out markets globally, the Asia Pacific stock market saw a significant rebound today, and US stock futures for equity index also rose strongly. The initial positive signs as of today indicate that, after the dramatic 'Black Monday', the market may take a breather.

The Nikkei 225 index rose violently by 10%, the KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 4.5%, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose by more than 3%, and stock markets in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia all rose. The three major A-share indices opened high and then fluctuated and fell. As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5%, and the CHINEXT Price Index rose 1%.

Some analysts believe that the market's rebound today is expected, because Monday's correction was beyond expectations, and the direction of future action should be considered. Analyst Garfirld Reynolds said that the market is now busy rebounding to erase most of the impact of Monday's sharp drop, but this will not be of much help to investors who were forced to sell in the past few days. He believes that after experiencing the violent fluctuations of the past week, risk assets will face obstacles on the road to sustainable growth.

Japan's stock market suffered the most severe decline yesterday, and the decline is enough to push it into a bear market. Strategists said that the Nikkei index rebounding today is not surprising, but the correction may not be over yet. The Nikkei index rose more than 3,000 points in early trading, the biggest intraday gain on record.

Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist of Nomura Asset Management, pointed out that panic selling may have ended, but as global market anxiety rises, today's price trends may be like roller coasters. The analyst believes that from a technical perspective, the timing of the market rebound is now mature. The Toraku ratio, which tracks the ratio of rising and falling stocks in the past 25 days, has fallen to the lowest level since October 2023 and is approaching the threshold of 70, which some traders regard as a turning point for the market to improve.

However, even if there is a rebound today, the Japanese stock market may still be at the level of a bear market in the short term. Tomio Kusaka, global market strategist for Invesco Asset Management Japan, said:" As the Japanese stock market's decline yesterday far exceeded that of Europe and the United States, market participants now realize that this correction is excessive. However, this does not mean that the market adjustment has ended."

"Weak economic indicators in the United States may still lead to further selling in the United States and other parts of the world, including Asia."

Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute, also said that Monday's plunge reminded people that it is almost impossible to diversify stock risks by region, industry, and style during major corrections or bear markets. Opportunities will emerge, but it is still too early to intervene in their view.

In terms of the South Korean stock market, there are signs of buying on dips from local funds and foreign funds, but retail investors are still selling. The small-cap KOSDAQ index rose by as much as 5.7%, the largest increase since November 2023. After rising more than 5% on the Kospi 200 and Kosdaq 150 index futures earlier, program trading was suspended for 5 minutes from 09:06 local time.

After yesterday's plunge, South Korean decision-makers urged calm response to the global market crash and said they will take stabilizing measures quickly if necessary. According to a statement from the South Korean government, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-ryong, Finance Minister Choe Kyung-ho, and Park Chun-sup, President of South Korea's Economic Advisory Committee, attended an emergency meeting in Seoul on Tuesday and unanimously agreed that "calm and rational decisions" should be made.

The statement said that Asia, including South Korea, overreacted to the economic and geopolitical risks that affect the US stock market. Officials promised to react according to emergency plans and called for rapid implementation of market stabilization measures if necessary. South Korea's finance minister said that yesterday's stock market crash was unusual, but the policy response was sufficient.

The U.S. stocks plummeted overnight, recording the largest three-day decline since June 2022 for all three major stock indexes. The Nasdaq index and S&P 500 index closed at their lowest levels since early May. The impact on the 'Seven Giants' was particularly severe, with a market value of over $650 billion evaporating. However, all three stock index futures rose on Tuesday.

"Compared with the panic presented on social media in the past 24 hours, the stock market's actual sell-off is relatively mild," wrote Jonestrading's chief market strategist Mike O'Rourke in a report.

"In such a strong market, a 10% or more adjustment is absolutely appropriate."

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research wrote in a report, 'The US is unlikely to experience a recession unless it triggers a financial crisis that leads to an overall economic decline.'

'Perhaps the arbitrage trading disaster is a financial crisis that will lead to a credit crunch and economic recession? We don't think so.'

In terms of cryptocurrencies, after a wave of safe-haven sentiment in the global market led to a sharp decline in most major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $56,000 on Tuesday, partially recovering from the frenzy of selling, after it once fell below $500,000, and Ethereum suffered its biggest drop since the FTX collapse in 2022. Sean McNulty, head of trading at Arbelos Markets, said, 'We're seeing buying bids on dips. But the market generally remains cautious, fearing that this is the beginning of a larger deleveraging process.'

'We have seen a buying demand on the bid. But the market generally remains cautious, fearing that this is the beginning of a larger deleveraging process.'

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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