Today's selection.

Global assets experienced a "Black Monday"!

Foreign media: Iran may attack Israel in the next 24 to 48 hours.

US official: The Assad airbase in western Iraq has been attacked.

Federal Reserve officials: The Fed's responsibility is not to react to monthly employment data, and its policy tasks have nothing to do with the stock market.

It is reported that Libya's largest oil field, Sharara oil field, has been completely shut down on Monday.

China's Caixin services PMI for July shows that the pace of expansion in the services industry has accelerated.

China's 10-year treasury notes yield fell below 2.1% at one point; offshore renminbi against the US dollar rose more than 700 points during the day.

Five departments including the central bank: Support eligible seed industry companies to go public, issue and refinance.

Shanghai headquarters of the central bank: Guiding banks to adjust deposit rates reasonably; further expanding the use of RMB across borders; strengthening the operation of the real estate market and monitoring and analyzing the financial situation.

Market inventory.

On Monday, global assets experienced a "Black Monday," and the US dollar index continued to decline, and once fell to the 102 level. However, it recovered some lost ground during the US session and finally fell 0.48% to 102.74; the US dollar against the yen once fell below 142, approaching the lowest level of the year. US bond yields rose and fell, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year US bond closed at 3.784%, while the yield on the 2-year US bond recovered most of its losses and turned up, once ending its inverted yield with the yield on the 10-year US bond, and finally closed at 3.9140%.

Due to the spread of market selling sentiment, spot gold plummeted rapidly in the European session and once fell to an intraday low of $2364.29, a drop of nearly $100 from the daily high, and then rebounded somewhat and returned to above $2400. It finally fell 1.33% to $2409.32/oz. Spot silver finally fell 4.65% to $27.25/oz.

Global stock market continued to sell off, but the oil market decline was limited because the market was worried that Iran might retaliate for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, which could lead to a wider war in the Middle East. WTI crude oil "stopped bleeding" during the US session, recovering most of its intraday losses, and finally fell 0.24% to $74.52/barrel; Brent crude oil finally fell 0.22% to $77.13/barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6%, the S&P 500 fell 3%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.43%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 6%, and Apple (AAPL.O) fell nearly 5%. Chinese concept stocks relatively resilient, with the Nasdaq China Dragon Index up 0.25%.

European main indices fell across the board, with the German DAX30 index down 1.82%; the UK FTSE100 index down 2.04%; and the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 1.45%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong continued to plummet in the afternoon session, falling more than 500 points at one point and hitting a three-and-a-half-month low of 16,441 points. The decline narrowed near the closing bell. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.46%; and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.36%. The turnover of the Hang Seng Index was HKD 135.015 billion. On the plate, electrical utilities, semiconductors, autos, petroleum, military industry, coal and other sectors fell the most; the three barrel oil companies in Hong Kong all fell, and PetroChina (00857.HK) and CNOOC (00883.HK) both fell more than 5%, while Sinopec Corp (00386.HK) fell nearly 3%. Popular stock Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities (01635.HK) rose more than 11% against the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6%, the S&P 500 index fell 3%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.43%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 6%, and Apple (AAPL.O) fell nearly 5%. Chinese concept stocks were relatively resistant to the fall, and the Nasdaq China Dragon Index closed up 0.25%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index continued to plummet in the afternoon session, falling more than 500 points at one point and hitting a three-and-a-half-month low of 16,441 points. The decline narrowed near the closing bell. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.46%; and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.36%. The turnover of the Hang Seng Index was HKD 135.015 billion. On the plate, electrical utilities, semiconductors, autos, petroleum, military industry, coal and other sectors fell the most; the three barrel oil companies in Hong Kong all fell, and PetroChina (00857.HK) and CNOOC(00883.HK) both fell more than 5%, while Sinopec Corp (00386.HK) fell nearly 3%. Popular stock Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities (01635.HK) rose more than 11% against the market.

The three major A-share indexes rebounded after exploring the bottom in early trading, but shook weakly in the afternoon. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.85%, and the ChiNext Price Index fell 1.89%. On the market, the tourism sector went against the trend and strengthened, with Sunriver Culture Tourism and Lander Sports Development hitting the limit. Education stocks were strong, with Offcn Education Technology, Beijing Kaiwen Education Technology and other stocks hitting the limit. Chip stocks declined, with Zhejiang MTCN Technology hitting the limit and Robotechnik Intelligent Technology, Biwin Storage and other stocks leading the decline. Most sectors including Copper Cable High-speed Connection, CPO Concept, PCB Concept, Car Network Cloud Concept and other sectors declined. The number of decliners in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets exceeded 4,700, with a turnover of over 790 billion yuan.

Bitcoin plummeted during the day, once falling below the $50,000 mark, hitting a new low in five months and the worst performing day since January 2022; Ethereum once lost the $2,200 mark, hitting a new low since mid-January.

International News

1. Global assets encounter "Black Monday", triggering circuit breakers in Japan, South Korea and Turkey; the seven giants of the US stock market evaporated $1.3 trillion market value at the opening, and interest rate futures basically priced in a 50 basis point rate cut in September by the Fed. Trump used "Black Monday" to play psychological warfare: elect me and make big money on stocks, otherwise face a depression.

2. The Wall Street Journal cited US officials on Sunday as saying that Iran may attack Israel within 24 to 48 hours; Israeli media: If there is conclusive evidence that Iran is preparing to launch an attack, Israel will consider launching a preemptive strike.

3. US officials: the Assad Air Force Base in western Iraq was attacked, at least five US personnel were injured, one of whom was seriously injured.

4. Charles Evans, President of the Chicago Fed, said that the Fed's responsibility is not to react to monthly employment data, and that the Fed's policy task has nothing to do with the stock market. When asked about emergency rate cuts, Evans said that options including rate hikes and cuts have always been on the table; Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, said she was open to an interest rate cut in September, and has not seen a deterioration in employment yet. The July employment report reflected temporary layoffs and hurricane effects, and focusing on data at one point would be misleading.

5. The US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 51.4, higher than market expectations; the final value of the July S&P Global Services PMI recorded 55, lower than market expectations.

6. According to two people familiar with the operation, Libya's largest oil field, the Sharara oil field, was shut down on Monday.

7. Harris' running mate list was reduced to Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Walz.

8. Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned, reportedly flying to India and then to London. The military said it would set up a caretaker government to manage the country's affairs.

9. According to the New York Times, Musk has restarted his lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman. Like the previous lawsuit, the new complaint alleges that OpenAI and its two co-founders, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, put commercial interests above public interests, violating the company's founding contract.

Domestic News

1. China's Caixin Services PMI for July recorded 52.1, up 0.9 percentage points from June, indicating an acceleration in the expansion of the service sector.

2. China's 10-year treasury notes yield briefly dropped below 2.1%; according to Sina quotes, offshore RMB against the US dollar rose more than 700 points during the day, rising above $7.09, and hitting a high since June 2023.

3. The People's Bank of China and four other departments issued a notice on carrying out a special action to learn from and apply the experience of the "Ten Million Engineering" to strengthen financial support for rural revitalization. Among them, the notice proposes to carry out a special action to provide financial support for food security, and to support seed enterprises that meet the requirements to go public, list financing and refinancing.

4. The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2024, which called for guiding banks to adjust deposit rates reasonably to push down the overall financing costs of small and micro enterprises; further expanding the use of the RMB abroad and promoting high-level open trials for cross-border trade and investment; coordinating with the resolution of outstanding business of P2P online lending institutions; strengthening monitoring and analysis of the real estate market and financial situation.

5. The July China Logistics Purchasing and Supply Management Federation Index released by the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation shows that the July China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index was 51%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

6. Honor plans to launch the corresponding shareholding system reform in the fourth quarter of this year, and then start the IPO process in a timely manner.

7. China Evergrande: The company is seeking to recover a total of about $6bn in dividends and remuneration from seven defendants, including Xu Jiayin and Ding Yumei, and the litigation is being processed.

Risk warning.

At 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. At 13:30, RBA Chairman Brock will hold a monetary policy press conference.

At 17:00, the eurozone will announce the monthly retail sales rate for June.

At 20:30, the US will release the June trade account.

At 22:00, the US will announce the July global supply chain pressure index.

At 00:00 the next day, EIA will release the monthly short-term energy outlook report.

At 4:30 the next day, the US will release the API crude oil inventory for the week ended on August 2.